Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 199

March 2, 20125 counties in Illinois; Cherokee County, Crawford County, Kansas; 43 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 2, 2012, 1:46 AM CST for 5 counties in Illinois; Cherokee County, Crawford County, Kansas; 43 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 2, 2012, 1:46 AM CST (07:46 UTC)
Expired
Mar 2, 2012, 3:15 AM CST
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 50 counties

Jackson County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Perry County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Bollinger County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Madison County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Newton County, MO, Osage County, MO, Perry County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Shannon County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Washington County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2012-03-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2012-03-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 241 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3164 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
241 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
396 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

556 
ACUS11 KWNS 020746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020746 
ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-020915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE KS...SRN MO...SW IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 020746Z - 020915Z

A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SE KS AND SRN MO
OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS CELLS INITIATE. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WW ISSUANCE
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CELL INITIATION IS TAKING PLACE
ACROSS FAR SE KS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. MUCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO
2500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS FAR SW MO WITH THE INSTABILITY LOCATED ABOVE
850 MB. FOR THIS REASON...THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED IN NATURE. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF ABOUT 50
KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.50 TO 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOL AND
STABLE...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IF A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS CAN ORGANIZE AND PERSIST
ACROSS SCNTRL MO.

..BROYLES.. 03/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   37129055 36699283 36649386 36719447 36999491 37449508
            37949475 38239330 38469206 38909000 38008919 37388962
            37129055

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 2, 2:07 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCalhoun, Jersey, Madison, Monroe, Randolph, Saint Clair5 hr
Mar 2, 4:25 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Calhoun, Christian, Clark, Clay, Clinton and 30 more95 min
Mar 2, 5:52 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBond, Calhoun, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay and 29 more6 hr
Mar 2, 7:50 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Clay, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, Douglas and 12 more85 min
Mar 2, 9:22 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Crawford, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton and 13 more113 min
Mar 2, 9:54 AM CSTTornado Watch PDSSPCAlexander, Bond, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay and 41 more6 hr
Mar 2, 10:02 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChampaign, Clark, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, Douglas and 3 more88 min
Mar 2, 11:06 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Carroll, Hancock, Henderson, Henry, Jo Daviess and 9 more4 hr
Mar 2, 12:05 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGallatin, Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope, Saline and 2 more85 min
Mar 2, 10:28 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDunklin, Pemiscot62 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.