Mesoscale Discussion 160

Issued

Feb 24, 2012, 4:45 PM EST (21:45 UTC)

Expired

Feb 24, 2012, 6:15 PM EST

In force

90 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

100 
ACUS11 KWNS 242145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242145 
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-242315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC...CNTRL/ERN NC...SERN VA...SERN MD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 38...

VALID 242145Z - 242315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 38 CONTINUES.

LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
ALONG THE SRN DE BORDER AND ACROSS SERN MD AND NRN VA...WITH A
SUBSYNOPTIC-SCALE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
VA/MD BORDER. THE STATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT AT A
TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE WV/VA BORDER...WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILS
SSWWD INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW HAS
SUPPORTED A BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE FROM S-CNTRL VA TO CNTRL NC WITH
MORE ISOLATED STORMS FARTHER NE TOWARD THE LOW. THIS LINE IS
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SECTOR
/AIDED BY EARLIER DIABATIC HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH
INSOLATION/...WITH THE STORMS LIKELY REACHING THE COAST AFTER 23Z.
AND...WITH 100 KT OF FLOW AROUND 5 KM AGL PER RALEIGH VWP...VERY
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-400 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES WITH LEWP STRUCTURES /AS INDICATED BY RALEIGH WSR-88D
DATA/ ALONG WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

FARTHER SOUTH...INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER OWING TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ERN/SERN NC AND NERN SC WITHIN 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
NEAR FLORENCE SC TO 35 MILES N OF CAPE HATTERAS. IN THIS
REGION...THE SVR THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED BY THE ABSENCE OF STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DESPITE THE APPROACHING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH INTO ERN SC...POCKETS OF MARGINALLY GREATER
INSTABILITY MAY BOLSTER THE SVR THREAT WITH STORMS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WSW.

..COHEN.. 02/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

LAT...LON   38197610 38327524 37727492 35787526 35177555 34697644
            33987757 33157917 33658011 34868003 35877998 36757904
            37767723 38197610

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.