Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1407

July 5, 20125 counties in Indiana; 7 counties in Michigan; 20 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 5, 2012, 3:27 PM EDT for 5 counties in Indiana; 7 counties in Michigan; 20 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 5, 2012, 3:27 PM EDT (19:27 UTC)
Expired: Jul 5, 2012, 5:00 PM EDT
In force: 93 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

All 32 counties

Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Wells County, IN, Branch County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Allen County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Henry County, OH, Logan County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH, Wood County, OH, Wyandot County, OH

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 279 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -270 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2299 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 277 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 345 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

485 
ACUS11 KWNS 051927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051927 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-052100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LOWER MI...NW OH AND NE IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 051927Z - 052100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE LOWER MI...NW OH AND
NE IND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...THE THREATS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND WW
ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN SERN LOWER MI
LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE NEAR AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED AROUND
1500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES LIKELY EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM
FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS FAR NW OH AND NE
IND. THIS ALONG WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE STORMS TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS CAN ORGANIZE
INTO A LINE. THIS MAY DEPEND UPON WHETHER THE ACTIVITY CAN ACCESS
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND
DAMAGE THREAT...HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFT
CORES.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 07/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42518349 42558415 42378464 42058504 41688525 41368537
            40798531 40468494 40318465 40278418 40328383 40448343
            40778307 41158290 41638281 42138290 42518349

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 5, 2:57 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Steuben	63 min
Jul 5, 5:58 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Allen, Blackford, Boone, Carroll, Cass and 40 more	92 min
Jul 4, 11:54 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clare, Gratiot, Ionia, Isabella, Kent, Lake and 11 more	96 min
Jul 5, 3:04 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barry, Calhoun, Eaton, Genesee, Ingham, Ionia and 11 more	3 hr
Jul 5, 4:12 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Genesee, Ingham, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Macomb and 4 more	93 min
Jul 4, 9:48 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Champaign, Clark, Clinton and 35 more	87 min
Jul 4, 10:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Athens, Auglaize, Belmont, Brown, Butler and 46 more	4 hr
Jul 5, 6:16 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Ashland, Ashtabula, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Crawford and 21 more	3 hr
Jul 5, 8:00 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Fairfield and 18 more	90 min
Jul 5, 11:14 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Gallia, Lawrence	91 min
Jul 5, 11:37 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Lawrence	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.