Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1398
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 4, 2012, 11:54 PM EDT for 17 counties in Michigan; 19 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 4, 2012, 11:54 PM EDT (03:54 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 5, 2012, 1:30 AM EDT
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 36 counties
Clare County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Wexford County, MI, Adams County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Columbia County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Portage County, WI, Racine County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI
The radar
The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 5454 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -37 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1029 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 78 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 112 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 2.5
- Supercell composite
- 13.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
311
ACUS11 KWNS 050355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050354
MIZ000-WIZ000-050530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 050354Z - 050530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
MARGINAL HAIL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD ACROSS ERN WI
EWD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH CELLS FORMING ALONG AND BEHIND.
ALTHOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS AS SEEN ON 00Z GRB
SOUNDING...CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIKELY
SHALLOW CONVERGENCE HAS STYMIED GROWTH POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS.
NONETHELESS...GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THESE STORMS AND OUTFLOW. A FEW CORES MAY BRIEFLY YIELD
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT WITH WEAK SHEAR PROFILES...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE LONG LIVED.
..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 07/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX...
LAT...LON 44668948 44338843 44208737 44298644 44628554 43878431
43258452 42868498 42778547 42638603 42618673 42808794
43078902 43388954 43738992 44119013 44498991 44668948SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 2:57 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Branch, Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Genesee and 19 more | 63 min |
| Jul 5, 3:04 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barry, Calhoun, Eaton, Genesee, Ingham, Ionia and 11 more | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 4:12 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Genesee, Ingham, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Macomb and 4 more | 93 min |
| Jul 5, 3:27 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Branch, Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Monroe, Washtenaw and 1 more | 93 min |
| Jul 5, 5:58 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berrien, Branch, Cass, Saint Joseph | 92 min |
| Jul 4, 8:31 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ashland, Bayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Iron, Price and 2 more | 5 hr |
| Jul 4, 9:59 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barron, Burnett, Polk, Rusk, Sawyer, Washburn | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.