Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1401
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 5, 2012, 4:12 AM EDT for 10 counties in Michigan; 8 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 93 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 5, 2012, 4:12 AM EDT (08:12 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 5, 2012, 5:45 AM EDT
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Genesee County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Cuyahoga County, OH, Erie County, OH, Huron County, OH, Lake County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Sandusky County, OH
The radar
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 56 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 4748 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -23 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1268 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 75 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 119 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.4
- Supercell composite
- 9.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
756
ACUS11 KWNS 050813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050812
OHZ000-MIZ000-050945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CDT THU JUL 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOWER MI AND NORTHERN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467...
VALID 050812Z - 050945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WIND/SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE TO QUICKLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MI...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE DETROIT METRO AREA BY 0830Z-0900Z
/430AM-5AM LOCAL TIME/. SEVERE TSTM WATCH 467 CONTINUES UNTIL 12Z.
MCS DOWNSTREAM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OH WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN
ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH EARLY THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...A ROUGHLY 50-MILE NORTH-SOUTH EXTENSIVE...AND NOW VERY
WELL-ORGANIZED...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/ASSOCIATED BOWING
STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO STEADILY GROW UPSCALE/MATURE AS IT SPREADS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI EARLY THIS
MORNING...CENTERED BETWEEN THE LANSING AND FLINT AREAS AS OF 08Z.
FORWARD PROPAGATION/ACCELERATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR WITH SOME
ELEMENTS NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT NEAR 50 KT...WITH A 50 KT
WIND GUST RECENTLY /0728Z/ MEASURED AT LANSING MI. THE DISTINCT
LIKELIHOOD OF COLD POOL EXPANSION AND ADDITIONAL FORWARD
ACCELERATION/PROPAGATION IN THE SHORT-TERM...WITH CONTINUED GUST
FRONT UPLIFT/LEADING ECHOES READILY EVIDENT...WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
DAMAGING WIND/SOME HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST
LOWER MI /INCLUDING THE DETROIT METRO AREA/ EVEN WHILE A SHALLOW
NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER EXISTS. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THIS MCS
COULD PERSIST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
/10Z OR AFTER/.
..GUYER.. 07/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42658451 42698409 43358398 42978289 42378226 41748110
41218136 41078263 41568375 42308461 42658451SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 11:54 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clare, Gratiot, Ionia, Isabella, Kent, Lake and 11 more | 96 min |
| Jul 5, 2:57 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Branch, Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Genesee and 19 more | 63 min |
| Jul 5, 3:04 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barry, Calhoun, Eaton, Genesee, Ingham, Ionia and 11 more | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 3:27 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Branch, Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Monroe, Washtenaw and 1 more | 93 min |
| Jul 5, 5:58 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berrien, Branch, Cass, Saint Joseph | 92 min |
| Jul 4, 9:48 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Champaign, Clark, Clinton and 35 more | 87 min |
| Jul 4, 10:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Athens, Auglaize, Belmont, Brown, Butler and 46 more | 4 hr |
| Jul 5, 6:16 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ashland, Ashtabula, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Crawford and 21 more | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 8:00 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Fairfield and 18 more | 90 min |
| Jul 5, 11:14 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gallia, Lawrence | 91 min |
| Jul 5, 11:37 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Lawrence | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.