Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1384

July 4, 20127 counties in Minnesota; 6 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 4, 2012, 6:25 AM CDT for 7 counties in Minnesota; 6 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 4, 2012, 6:25 AM CDT (11:25 UTC)
Expired: Jul 4, 2012, 8:00 AM CDT
In force: 95 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

Counties Kittson County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Cavalier County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Towner County, ND, Walsh County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459Jul 4, 8:00 AM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 297 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 418 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -241 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1748 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 74 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

667 
ACUS11 KWNS 041125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041125 
MNZ000-NDZ000-041300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 AM CDT WED JUL 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 041125Z - 041300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN. A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH THE 13Z DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

DISCUSSION...JUST AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT...A SMALL LINEAR/BOWING COMPLEX CONTINUES TO STEADILY SPREAD
/40 KT/ EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ND...AROUND 60 MILES NORTH OF DEVILS
LAKE ND AS OF 1115Z. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THIS SMALL MCS...A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE REGION...WITH A MOIST/INSTABILITY FEED OCCURRING JUST ABOVE A
RELATIVELY STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. ANTICIPATED CELL
MERGERS/ORIENTATION OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN /NEAR CREST OF UPPER RIDGE/ ALL SUGGEST THAT A
CONTINUED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THIS ONGOING MCS/ADDITIONAL
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE. THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE/EXIST THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE BORDER ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND/NORTHWEST MN. WHILE THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   49009995 49099844 49099568 49379489 48279426 47529620
            48189937 49009995

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 6:53 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ramsey, Washington	97 min
Jul 4, 8:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Beltrami, Clearwater, Kittson, Lake of the Woods, Marshall, Pennington and 3 more	6 hr
Jul 4, 12:25 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aitkin, Beltrami, Carlton, Clearwater, Itasca, Koochiching and 1 more	95 min
Jul 4, 12:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Aitkin, Carlton, Cass, Cook, Crow Wing, Itasca and 4 more	7 hr
Jul 4, 3:57 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cook, Lake	93 min
Jul 3, 10:34 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burke, Burleigh and 24 more	116 min
Jul 4, 2:32 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benson, Bottineau, Burke, Cavalier, McHenry, Mountrail and 6 more	88 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.