Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1383
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 4, 2012, 2:32 AM CDT for 12 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 4, 2012, 2:32 AM CDT (07:32 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 4, 2012, 4:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Benson County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Burke County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, McHenry County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Towner County, ND, Ward County, ND
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1544 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -53 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2264 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 53 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 144 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 4.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
919 ACUS11 KWNS 040732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040732 NDZ000-040900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1383 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT WED JUL 04 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 040732Z - 040900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER /GENERALLY 50 MILES OR LESS/. LOCALLY EXTENDED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 458 CONTINUES UNTIL 08Z. WHILE THE /SOUTHWARD/ EXTENSIVENESS OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN INTO ND OVERNIGHT...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DISCUSSION...NEAR AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...A COMPLEX OF ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER VICINITY OF NORTHWEST ND. PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE BRUNT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS IS FOCUSED WELL NORTH INTO THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. EVEN WHILE NEAR-SURFACE CINH/CAPPING ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE SOUTH OF THE BORDER...WARM ADVECTION/FRONTAL FORCING MAY ALLOW FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO PERSIST/BACKBUILD SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ND...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWARD-EXTENT/LIKELIHOOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN IN THE SHORT-TERM. IN CONTRAST TO 00Z GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM/ECMWF...00Z-BASED CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF-NMM/WRF-NSSL SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR/SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ND. IF SO...BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/04/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48150305 48950323 48879831 48049844 47930162 48150305
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 10:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burke, Burleigh and 24 more | 116 min |
| Jul 4, 6:25 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cavalier, Grand Forks, Pembina, Ramsey, Towner, Walsh | 95 min |
| Jul 4, 8:10 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cavalier, Grand Forks, Pembina, Walsh | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.