Mesoscale Discussion 1382

Issued

Jul 3, 2012, 9:34 PM MDT (03:34 UTC)

Expired

Jul 3, 2012, 11:30 PM MDT

In force

116 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

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961 
ACUS11 KWNS 040335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040334
NDZ000-040530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 PM CDT TUE JUL 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL ND.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458...

VALID 040334Z - 040530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...GREATEST SVR THREAT REMAINS OVER NRN PORTIONS WW
ALONG/AHEAD OF ONGOING NWRN ND MCS.  OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL THAT
ALREADY WAS CONDITIONAL IS BECOMING WEAKER WITH TIME...AND PORTIONS
CENTRAL/SRN ND MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW BEFORE SCHEDULED 06Z
EXPIRATION IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EARLIER NERN MT SFC LOW HAS
SHIFTED EWD TO NWRN ND JUST SE OR S ISN...LIKELY LOCATED ALONG
OUTFLOW FROM TSTMS TO ITS N.  COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD
ACROSS SERN MT AND INTERSECTS WARM FRONT NEAR SFC LOW.  WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SSEWD OVER SWRN ND...DRIFTING NEWD.  N OF WARM
FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DIABATICALLY FROM
BOTTOM UP...INCREASING NEAR-SFC STATIC STABILITY.  MEANWHILE
BROAD/SLY/25-35 KT LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO
ELEVATED WAA REGIME THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN MCS FOR AT LEAST A
FEW MORE HOURS AS IT MOVES ENEWD AT OBLIQUE ANGLE TO ND/CANADA
BORDER.  DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT ITS MAGNITUDE SHOULD DIMINISH AS MLCINH INCREASES AND
DCAPE DECREASES OVER NRN ND THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING.  DEVELOPMENT
STILL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER SW NEAR SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONTAL
SEGMENT...ALTHOUGH THAT POTENTIAL IS LOWER AND MORE CONDITIONAL WITH
TIME.  AS SUCH...RISK FOR BACKBUILDING OF COMPLEX TOWARD SWRN ND
WARM FRONT HAS DIMINISHED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH TIME AS
MLCINH STRENGTHENS AND GREATEST MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHIFTS NEWD INTO CANADA.

..EDWARDS.. 07/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   46020401 48990404 48979965 45989970 46020401

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.