Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 127

February 18, 2012Baldwin County, Escambia County, Mobile County, Alabama; Orleans Parish, Saint Bernard Parish, Saint Charles Parish, Louisiana; 6 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 18, 2012, 1:03 PM CST for Baldwin County, Escambia County, Mobile County, Alabama; Orleans Parish, Saint Bernard Parish, Saint Charles Parish, Louisiana; 6 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 57 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 18, 2012, 1:03 PM CST (19:03 UTC)
Expired
Feb 18, 2012, 2:00 PM CST
In force
57 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Baldwin County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Orleans Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Stone County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2012-02-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2012-02-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 160 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
449 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
160 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
177 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

913 
ACUS11 KWNS 181903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181903 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-182000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...SWRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 28...29...

VALID 181903Z - 182000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 28...29...CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT REMAINS CONFINED TO A CONTRACTING LINE-SEGMENT ACROSS
PEARL RIVER COUNTY MS AND ST TAMMANY PARISH LA. THE RISK FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO PERSISTS...BUT APPEARS
TO BE INCREASINGLY LOCALIZED.

RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE QLCS HAS SPATIALLY
CONTRACTED AS IT HAS PROGRESSED INTO SRN MS. THIS FEATURE REMAINS
CO-LOCATED WITH A SUB-SYNOPTIC CYCLONE ALONG AND JUST N OF A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE RICHER MARITIME AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED
BY MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ ACROSS SERN LA AND THE IMMEDIATE
MS/AL/FL COAST. THUS...THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS MARGINAL
GIVEN THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF WEAK MUCAPE /AOB 500 J/KG/.
NEVERTHELESS...0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT /PER MOB VWP/ WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR TRANSIENT MESOVORTICES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.

FARTHER SW OF THE LINE...WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW HAS EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED THE WARM SECTOR OFFSHORE FROM SWRN
LA AHEAD OF PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW OFF THE SERN TX COAST. IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS OVER THE WRN GULF MAY EVENTUALLY OVERRIDE THE
REMNANT WARM SECTOR IN SERN LA LATER TODAY.

..GRAMS.. 02/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30568977 30828942 31218880 31328821 31428758 31348709
            31128693 30898697 30638711 30528741 30348793 30068850
            29918925 29749012 29989047 30438987 30568977

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 18, 11:21 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Escambia, Mobile54 min
Feb 18, 11:49 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Covington, Escambia, Mobile5 hr
Feb 18, 2:02 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington, Dale, Escambia and 3 more58 min
Feb 18, 2:58 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCoffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston5 hr
Feb 18, 3:41 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Dale and 4 more64 min
Feb 18, 4:29 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Covington, Escambia, Mobile31 min
Feb 18, 4:48 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Covington, Escambia, Mobile4 hr
Feb 18, 4:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalcasieu, Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Vermilion55 min
Feb 18, 4:46 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAcadia, Calcasieu, Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Vermilion5 hr
Feb 18, 8:29 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Assumption, Cameron, Iberia, Iberville, Jefferson Davis and 4 more31 min
Feb 18, 9:31 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, Iberia, Iberville, Jefferson and 16 more59 min
Feb 18, 9:55 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, Iberia, Iberville, Jefferson and 15 more7 hr
Feb 18, 2:21 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson, Lafourche, Plaquemines, Saint Bernard, St. Mary, Terrebonne24 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.