Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1209 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1045 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012/

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING AND HAS SHOWN
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

THIS CONVECTION WAS SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS
DEPICTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...THIS ACTIVITY WAS RIDING
EAST ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO THE NORTHERN OZARKS FROM NEAR NEVADA TO ROLLA. AN AXIS
OF HIGH 700 MB MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8WERE
ALSO SUPERIMPOSED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

WITH THAT SAID...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS TO
REMAIN IN TACT AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI OR
NORTHERN OZARKS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST
A SIMILAR SCENARIO. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM
THE NEVADA AREA EAST TO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AND TRUMAN LAKE
REGIONS THEN TO ROLLA. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG
RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. THETA-E
DIFFERENTIALS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG IF NOT DAMAGING DOWN BURST WINDS. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS BUT HAIL SIZE SHOULD BE INHIBITED BY HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASED ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SEVERE STORM POSSIBILITIES BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH OVER THE
OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON ML CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITH WEAK
TO NO INHIBITION SHOULD YIELD A FEW STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER NEAR ICT MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING.

BY TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGIONS AND WILL SEND A STRONG SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z FRI. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE STRONG FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWING THROUGH.
SEVERITY WILL LIKELY DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. EARLIER PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL
SUGGESTING AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH SUFFICIENT 0-6KM
WIND SHEAR FOR A SEVERE RISK. MAIN RISK WILL LIKELY BE WITH
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IF A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE CAN BE REALIZED.

THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM AND SHOULD CLEAR THE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SAT. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE CONVECTION AND FRONT AND LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND BE
REPLACED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1200 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS TODAY. HOWEVER PILOTS
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BULK OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE TERMINAL
VICINITIES. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS MAY
RESULT IN TEMPORAL CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071615-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1103 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
  THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

  THE GREATEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE
  WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM THE NEVADA AREA EAST TO THE LAKE OF THE
  OZARKS AND TRUMAN LAKE REGION THEN TO THE ROLLA AREA.

  SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH A LIMITED RISK FOR DAMAGING
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE MID 90S TO AROUND
  102 TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. THE
  RISK OF SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE
  AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
  RISK WOULD BE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND. IF ENOUGH
  INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...THEN LARGE HAIL WOULD ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W HUMANSVILLE         37.79N 93.65W
09/06/2012                   CEDAR              MO   PUBLIC

            LARGE LIMBS WERE REPORTED DOWN AND A CEDAR TREE WAS
            UPROOTED AT THE CIRCLE OF HOPE GIRLS RANCH.

&&

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1240 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

MOZ079-080-090-061815-
GREENE MO-POLK MO-DALLAS MO-
1240 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GREENE...SOUTHEASTERN
POLK AND SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

AT 1237 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
MORRISVILLE TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ASH GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE 30 TO 35
MPH WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH UP TO 50 MPH WINDS EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ASH GROVE...BOIS D'ARC...BRIGHTON...CAVE
SPRINGS...EBENEZER...EUDORA...FAIR GROVE...GLIDEWELL...MORRISVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN SPRINGFIELD...OLIVE...PLEASANT HOPE...SACVILLE...WALNUT
GROVE AND WILLARD.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 71 AND 80 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN GREENE...SOUTHEASTERN POLK AND SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS
COUNTIES...INCLUDING MORRISVILLE...ASH GROVE...WALNUT GROVE...
WILLARD...PLEASANT HOPE...SPRINGFIELD AND FAIR GROVE...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3724 9361 3728 9361 3728 9362 3739 9362
      3751 9352 3751 9295 3748 9298 3748 9307
      3740 9308 3720 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 270DEG 25KT 3751 9340 3727 9362

BOXELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1241 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             1 S HUMANSVILLE         37.78N 93.58W
09/06/2012  E0.50 INCH       POLK               MO   PUBLIC

            DIME HAIL REPORTED SOUTH OF TOWN ON HIGHWAY 13.

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORRISVILLE             37.48N 93.43W
09/06/2012                   POLK               MO   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN AND SIDING WAS ALSO
            PEELED OF A HOME.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
104 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARSAW                  38.24N 93.38W
09/06/2012                   BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN IN TOWN. POWER LINES
            WERE ALSO REPORTED DOWN ONE MILE SOUHTWEST OF TOWN.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
107 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIR PLAY               37.63N 93.57W
09/06/2012                   POLK               MO   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN TOWN

&&

LDOOLEY