Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012/

A LINEAR COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAD EVOLVED
THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AT
MID AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS HAD PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE TO TREES AND ROOFS.

THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY EAST-SOUTHEAST AS A SUBTLE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS DEPICTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO RIDING EAST ALONG
A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD PROPAGATED AWAY FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

MUCH OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA BY
5 PM. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL STRETCH EAST TO
WEST NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

FOSTER

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012/

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL SWING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE OZARKS.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FRONT TO THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIME.

SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL LIKELY TAKE
PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 TO GENERATE MODERATE
INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH TIME BUT WILL
BE STRONGEST NORTH OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. MESOCALE INTERACTIONS AND THE
EXTENT OF HEATING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

CONVECTION AND STRATIFORM RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THE UPPER SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. THE RAIN WILL COME TO END AND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE

FOSTER

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012/

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD...AND AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN PLACES THE AREA UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

QUITE WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN MAY ARRIVE LATER NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1200 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS TODAY. HOWEVER PILOTS
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BULK OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE TERMINAL
VICINITIES. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS MAY
RESULT IN TEMPORAL CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
118 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071830-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
118 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  TRACK EAST ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
  OUTLOOK AREA.

  THE GREATEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
  WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WILL OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 13 INTO SOUTH
  CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND WILL INCLUDE THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION.

  SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR DAMAGING
  WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE MID 90S TO AROUND
  102 OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY AS A COLD
  FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A LIMITED TO ELEVATED
  RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
  LARGE HAIL. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY
  DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
  MISSOURI OZARKS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 13.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
244 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     TSTM WND GST     DIXON                   37.99N 92.09W
09/06/2012  M46 MPH          PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NIANGUA                 37.39N 92.83W
09/06/2012                   WEBSTER            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A MOBILE HOME.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
259 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW CROCKER           37.91N 92.28W
09/06/2012                   PULASKI            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A LARGE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN BLOCKING A PORTION OF
            HIGHWAY 133.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S DIXON               37.95N 92.09W
09/06/2012                   PULASKI            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON HIGHWAY 28.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
307 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     TSTM WND GST     VICHY                   38.11N 91.76W
09/06/2012  M53 MPH          MARIES             MO   ASOS

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKE OZARK              38.20N 92.64W
09/06/2012                   CAMDEN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES.

&&

HATCH