Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1056 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1045 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012/

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING AND HAS SHOWN
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

THIS CONVECTION WAS SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS
DEPICTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...THIS ACTIVITY WAS RIDING
EAST ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO THE NORTHERN OZARKS FROM NEAR NEVADA TO ROLLA. AN AXIS
OF HIGH 700 MB MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8WERE
ALSO SUPERIMPOSED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

WITH THAT SAID...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS TO
REMAIN IN TACT AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI OR
NORTHERN OZARKS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST
A SIMILAR SCENARIO. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM
THE NEVADA AREA EAST TO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AND TRUMAN LAKE
REGIONS THEN TO ROLLA. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG
RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. THETA-E
DIFFERENTIALS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG IF NOT DAMAGING DOWN BURST WINDS. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS BUT HAIL SIZE SHOULD BE INHIBITED BY HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASED ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SEVERE STORM POSSIBILITIES BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH OVER THE
OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON ML CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITH WEAK
TO NO INHIBITION SHOULD YIELD A FEW STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER NEAR ICT MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING.

BY TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGIONS AND WILL SEND A STRONG SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z FRI. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE STRONG FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWING THROUGH.
SEVERITY WILL LIKELY DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. EARLIER PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL
SUGGESTING AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH SUFFICIENT 0-6KM
WIND SHEAR FOR A SEVERE RISK. MAIN RISK WILL LIKELY BE WITH
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IF A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE CAN BE REALIZED.

THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM AND SHOULD CLEAR THE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SAT. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE CONVECTION AND FRONT AND LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND BE
REPLACED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS CAN
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PILOTS SHOULD MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH TODAY AS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE OZARKS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
FRIDAY.  A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071615-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1103 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
  THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

  THE GREATEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE
  WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM THE NEVADA AREA EAST TO THE LAKE OF THE
  OZARKS AND TRUMAN LAKE REGION THEN TO THE ROLLA AREA.

  SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH A LIMITED RISK FOR DAMAGING
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE MID 90S TO AROUND
  102 TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. THE
  RISK OF SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE
  AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
  RISK WOULD BE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND. IF ENOUGH
  INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...THEN LARGE HAIL WOULD ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1016 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

KSZ073-061545-
BOURBON KS-
1016 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOURBON COUNTY UNTIL 1045 AM
CDT...

AT 1015 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORTERVILLE...OR 19 MILES
NORTH OF ST. PAUL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRONSON...DEVON...FORT SCOTT...FULTON...
GARLAND...HAMMOND...HARDING...HIATTVILLE...MAPLETON...MARMATON...
PAWNEE STATION...PETERSBURG...PORTERVILLE...REDFIELD...UNIONTOWN AND
XENIA.

PEOPLE IN BOURBON COUNTY...INCLUDING UNIONTOWN AND REDFIELD...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3804 9509 3805 9477 3805 9464 3804 9462
      3767 9462 3767 9488 3768 9488 3768 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 264DEG 21KT 3780 9517

BOXELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1043 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

MOZ066-061630-
VERNON MO-
1043 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VERNON COUNTY UNTIL 1130 AM
CDT...

AT 1038 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RICHARDS...OR
4 MILES EAST OF FORT SCOTT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE NEVADA...SCHELL CITY...SHELDON AND WALKER.

PEOPLE IN VERNON COUNTY...INCLUDING NEVADA AND WALKER...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3806 9427 3804 9423 3806 9421 3805 9419
      3806 9413 3804 9411 3804 9406 3786 9406
      3785 9407 3764 9407 3765 9461 3806 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1543Z 261DEG 22KT 3786 9460

BOXELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1121 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

MOZ066-067-077-078-089-061700-
BARTON MO-CEDAR MO-ST. CLAIR MO-VERNON MO-DADE MO-
1121 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARTON...CEDAR...NORTHWESTERN
DADE...VERNON AND WESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1115 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SCHELL CITY TO 6 MILES EAST OF MILO TO OAKTON...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE APPLETON CITY...EL DORADO SPRINGS...GOLDEN
CITY...LAMAR...LOCKWOOD...LOWRY CITY...NEVADA...SCHELL CITY...
SHELDON...STOCKTON...VERDELLA AND WALKER.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE STOCKTON
LAKE AND TRUMAN LAKE.

PEOPLE IN BARTON...CEDAR...NORTHWESTERN DADE...VERNON AND WESTERN ST.
CLAIR COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PERSONS ON OR NEAR TRUMAN AND STOCKTON LAKES...GET OUT OF THE WATER
AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY
OF LIFE THREATENING HAZARDS TO BOATERS INCLUDING STRONG WINDS...VERY
CHOPPY WATERS...HAIL...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
POTENTIALLY BLINDING RAINS. DON'T BE CAUGHT OUT ON THE WATER IN A
THUNDERSTORM...BOATERS SHOULD IMMEDIATELY SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

LAT...LON 3805 9454 3807 9449 3806 9427 3804 9423
      3806 9421 3805 9419 3806 9413 3804 9407
      3822 9406 3821 9372 3777 9373 3738 9388
      3737 9442 3773 9454
TIME...MOT...LOC 1620Z 268DEG 28KT 3813 9414 3776 9416
          3746 9427

BOXELL