Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Springfield, MO

786 
WWUS53 KSGF 061851
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
151 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

MOC029-131-141-061915-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0247.000000T0000Z-120906T1915Z/
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-
151 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MORGAN...
MILLER AND NORTH CENTRAL CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 146 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF STOVER TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OSAGE BEACH...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT. TREES AND POWER POLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED 
DOWN WITHIN THE LAST HOUR WITH THESE STORMS. THE PUBLIC ALSO 
RECENTLY REPORTED SNAPPED TREES NEAR ROCKY MOUNT. 

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE
         DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELDON...IBERIA...LAKE OZARK...LAKELAND...LAURIE...OSAGE BEACH...
STOVER...VERSAILLES AND VILLAGE OF FOUR SEASONS.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES LAKE OF THE OZARKS STATE PARK AND LAKE OF
THE OZARKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE OF THE OZARKS...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER AND MOVE 
TO SHELTER. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE 
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. BOATS CAN BE SWAMPED BY LARGE CAPSIZING 
WAVES...EVEN ON SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVE INTO DOCK AND SEEK SAFE 
SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 9283 3844 9262 3843 9241 3834 9240
      3834 9222 3808 9219 3807 9279 3854 9308
      3860 9307 3863 9283
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 267DEG 21KT 3855 9298 3808 9264

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

BOXELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1209 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1045 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012/

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING AND HAS SHOWN
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

THIS CONVECTION WAS SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS
DEPICTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...THIS ACTIVITY WAS RIDING
EAST ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO THE NORTHERN OZARKS FROM NEAR NEVADA TO ROLLA. AN AXIS
OF HIGH 700 MB MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8WERE
ALSO SUPERIMPOSED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

WITH THAT SAID...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS TO
REMAIN IN TACT AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI OR
NORTHERN OZARKS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST
A SIMILAR SCENARIO. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM
THE NEVADA AREA EAST TO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AND TRUMAN LAKE
REGIONS THEN TO ROLLA. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG
RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. THETA-E
DIFFERENTIALS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG IF NOT DAMAGING DOWN BURST WINDS. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS BUT HAIL SIZE SHOULD BE INHIBITED BY HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASED ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SEVERE STORM POSSIBILITIES BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH OVER THE
OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON ML CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITH WEAK
TO NO INHIBITION SHOULD YIELD A FEW STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER NEAR ICT MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING.

BY TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGIONS AND WILL SEND A STRONG SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z FRI. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE STRONG FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWING THROUGH.
SEVERITY WILL LIKELY DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. EARLIER PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL
SUGGESTING AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH SUFFICIENT 0-6KM
WIND SHEAR FOR A SEVERE RISK. MAIN RISK WILL LIKELY BE WITH
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IF A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE CAN BE REALIZED.

THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM AND SHOULD CLEAR THE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SAT. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE CONVECTION AND FRONT AND LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND BE
REPLACED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1200 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS TODAY. HOWEVER PILOTS
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BULK OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE TERMINAL
VICINITIES. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS MAY
RESULT IN TEMPORAL CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
118 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071830-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
118 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  TRACK EAST ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
  OUTLOOK AREA.

  THE GREATEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
  WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WILL OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 13 INTO SOUTH
  CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND WILL INCLUDE THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION.

  SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR DAMAGING
  WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE MID 90S TO AROUND
  102 OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY AS A COLD
  FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A LIMITED TO ELEVATED
  RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
  LARGE HAIL. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY
  DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
  MISSOURI OZARKS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 13.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
112 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     TSTM WND GST     PLEASANT HOPE           37.46N 93.27W
09/06/2012  E65 MPH          POLK               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
114 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLEMINGTON              37.80N 93.50W
09/06/2012                   POLK               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER POLE SNAPPED BY HIGH WINDS.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
116 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE WARSAW             38.22N 93.36W
09/06/2012                   BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
118 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSW PLEASANT HOPE     37.42N 93.29W
09/06/2012  E60 MPH          POLK               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS AT THE INTERSECTION
            OF HWY 13 AND 215.

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
119 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 PM     HAIL             3 SSW PLEASANT HOPE     37.42N 93.29W
09/06/2012  E0.88 INCH       POLK               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL HAIL REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 13 AND
            215.

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
128 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKEVIEW HEIGHTS        38.26N 93.16W
09/06/2012                   BENTON             MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

HATCH