Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Raleigh, NC

439 
WWUS52 KRAH 052150
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
550 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC125-052245-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0195.000000T0000Z-120705T2245Z/
MOORE NC-
550 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR MOORE COUNTY...

AT 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CARTHAGE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... CAMERON...EAGLE
SPRINGS...VASS...WHISPERING PINES...SEVEN LAKES...TAYLORTOWN...
SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...PINEBLUFF...FOXFIRE AND ABERDEEN.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3504 7946 3506 7950 3507 7958 3512 7957
      3526 7970 3547 7977 3551 7976 3552 7935
      3550 7933 3547 7936 3539 7928 3535 7927
      3532 7923 3521 7922 3521 7925 3516 7934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 007DEG 11KT 3539 7948

$$

VINCENT

746 
WWUS52 KRAH 052202
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
602 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC125-052245-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0195.000000T0000Z-120705T2245Z/
MOORE NC-
602 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR MOORE COUNTY...

AT 559 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEPARATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITHIN THE WARNED AREA.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR SEVEN LAKES...OR 12 MILES WEST OF CARTHAGE...MOVING 
SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... TAYLORTOWN...SOUTHERN
PINES...PINEHURST...FOXFIRE...ABERDEEN AND PINEBLUFF.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN MOORE 
COUNTY...JUST NORTH OF CARTHAGE.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3504 7946 3506 7950 3507 7958 3512 7957
      3526 7970 3547 7977 3551 7976 3552 7935
      3550 7933 3547 7936 3539 7928 3535 7927
      3532 7923 3521 7922 3521 7925 3516 7934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 015DEG 11KT 3527 7961

$$

VINCENT

215 
WWUS52 KRAH 052219
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
619 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC125-052245-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0195.000000T0000Z-120705T2245Z/
MOORE NC-
619 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR MOORE COUNTY...

AT 618 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEVEN
LAKES...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARTHAGE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
FOXFIRE AND PINEBLUFF.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3506 7950 3507 7958 3512 7957 3526 7970
      3541 7974 3547 7936 3543 7933 3540 7929
      3535 7927 3532 7923 3521 7922 3521 7925
      3516 7934 3504 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 022DEG 10KT 3526 7963

$$

VINCENT

964 
WWUS52 KRAH 052233
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
633 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC125-052245-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0195.000000T0000Z-120705T2245Z/
MOORE NC-
633 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN MOORE COUNTY...

AT 631 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEVEN
LAKES...OR 14 MILES WEST OF SOUTHERN PINES...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10
MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...ABERDEEN...PINEBLUFF 
AND FOXFIRE.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3506 7950 3507 7958 3512 7957 3523 7967
      3524 7967 3526 7970 3532 7971 3538 7934
      3520 7928 3516 7934 3504 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 027DEG 7KT 3524 7964

$$

VINCENT

756 
WWUS52 KRAH 052247
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
647 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC125-052257-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0195.000000T0000Z-120705T2245Z/
MOORE NC-
647 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MOORE COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 645 PM EDT...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3506 7950 3507 7958 3512 7957 3523 7967
      3524 7967 3526 7970 3532 7971 3538 7934
      3520 7928 3516 7934 3504 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 027DEG 7KT 3524 7964

$$

VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
331 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY. 14Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC DATA
INDICATED MULTIPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

TEMPERATURES:
THE 12Z GSO RAOB INDICATED A 1000-850 MB THICKNESS OF 1434 METERS
THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...
WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES IN VICINITY OF
1455 METERS BY 00Z...ROUGHLY 10-15 METERS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES H85 TEMPS IN THE 21-23C RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS PER 14Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS (THOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE PRESENT OVER WV IN ASSOC/W
MCS REMNANTS). HIGHS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM 95-98F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RDU AN EXCEPTION AT 101F. BASED ON YESTERDAY'S TEMPS AND
A 10-15 METER INCREASE IN THICKNESSES...EXPECT HIGHS IN VICINITY OF
100F TODAY...THOUGH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAY PREVENT HIGHS FROM
EXCEEDING THE MID/UPPER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. DECIDED TO INCREASE
THE HIGH AT RDU TO 102F BASED ON YESTERDAY'S READING. WILL DECREASE
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT THICKNESSES SUGGEST IN THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT WHERE OUTFLOW FROM MCS REMNANTS (AND NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION NEAR BLUEFIELD WV) MAY AFFECT TEMPS BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. H85 DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM 13-15C (55-60F) ACROSS THE AREA
AT 14Z...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN STRONG HEATING AND MIXING UP TO AT LEAST H85...ANTICIPATE THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT. IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LEE TROUGH...EXPECT DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS IN
THE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...OR 72-75F.

HEAT INDICES/HEAT ADVISORY:
WITH THE ABOVE T/TD DISCUSSION IN MIND...ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-110F IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105F IN THE TRIANGLE...AND GENERALLY 100-105F IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. DESPITE MAX HEAT INDICES FORECAST NEAR 105F IN
WAKE/FRANKLIN/WARREN COUNTIES...DECIDED NOT TO EXPAND THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO DEWPOINTS ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1 AND CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SEASONABLY STEEP TODAY ACCORDING TO 15Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA...IN VICINITY OF 6.5 C/KM. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS
EASILY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID
60S TO NEAR 70F (IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME MIX-DOWN BY 18-21Z)...
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE...PERHAPS
STRONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. W/REGARD TO FORCING... A
COMPLEX NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN IS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES. 1) A SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SC/OFFSHORE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
MAY INITIALLY SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. 2) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER
NORTHERN VA AT 03Z HAVE PROGRESSED INTO CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. 3) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER OHIO AT 03Z HAVE
PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHWEST VA BY 17Z THIS AFTERNOON...ALREADY FORCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST NC. 4) AN ONGOING
MCS IN WV AT 17Z...THOUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WILL PROVIDE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES 30-40% IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND 20-30% IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...AND ~20% IN THE CENTRAL/SE COASTAL
PLAIN.

SEVERE THREAT:
MLCAPE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE WILL RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS
TODAY...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NO MORE THAN 15-20 KT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES
ANALYZED PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS (1000-1600 J/KG...HIGHEST
WEST)...EXPECT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION PRIMARILY ALONG OUTFLOW.
THOUGH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OWING TO VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES/STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK IS INDICATED
ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK) BETWEEN 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 8-11 PM THIS
EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST DCAPE VALUES ARE PRESENT AND
WHERE THE RELATIVE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED AS REMNANT MCS
ACTIVITY PROGRESSES SOUTH/SSW INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT OWING TO 1000+ J/KG OF DCAPE/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MOVES EAST. AT THE SFC AND LOWER LEVELS...NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH
THE LEE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO REMAIN THE SAME...THUS EXPECT HIGHS TOMORROW VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAYS VALUES...AROUND 100 ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DWPTS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
(UPPER 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST)...THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 100-103 WEST TO 104-107 EAST. THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL
LEAVE AS-IS. AS FOR TSTM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY...NOTED SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL WARMING IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY/CAPE TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON TSTMS. GFS DEPICTS A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH PERHAPS THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACTIVITY AND STRONGER INTENSITY WILL BE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN ZONES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SFC DWPT PROGS SUGGEST BETTER CAPE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL
WIND DOWN DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH PC CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. LOWS
FRI NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

ON SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER TOP OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL WARMING. WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN AROUND 100. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WARMING AND WEAKENING LAPSE
RATES...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FURTHER REDUCED. BEST CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHER PW AND DWPTS
ARE LOCATED. LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...

ON SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
MOVES SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST HOT DAY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO AIRMASS CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 100. WITH MID LEVELS BEGINNING TO
COOL AND PWAT INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND THE ASSOC COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN AT LEAST A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
ASIDE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO ~50 KT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 00Z THIS
EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD:
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH N/NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. -VINCENT

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND YEAR RECORD LAST SET.

RALEIGH-DURHAM...      GREENSBORO...

07/05   102    1999        98    1990
07/06   102    1999       100    1977
07/07   102    2010       101    1977
07/08   103    1977       102    1977

FAYETTEVILLE...
07/05   101    2002
07/06    99    1990
07/07   103    2010
07/08   102    1977

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-061615-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 11
PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR
ABOVE 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-073-061615-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND 11 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH
AS 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ008>010-025-026-040-041-074>076-083-084-061615-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-CHATHAM-WAKE-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-
LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND 11 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR
ABOVE 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
457 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ077-052145-
HARNETT-
457 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HARNETT COUNTY THROUGH 545
PM EDT...

AT 457 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
LILLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...LILLINGTON...AND
TIMBERLAKE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 7918 3559 7891 3551 7868 3544 7861
      3536 7857 3534 7853 3531 7854 3530 7858
      3528 7858 3525 7862 3527 7871 3527 7879
      3521 7897 3521 7900
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 292DEG 3KT 3539 7883

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
502 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE COATS CROSSROADS   35.55N  78.50W
07/05/2012                   JOHNSTON           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE PINE TREE BLOWN OVER AND ONTO NWS EMPLOYEES
            VEHICLE. NO INJURIES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200544

NP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
514 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAURINBURG MAXTON APT   34.79N  79.37W
07/05/2012  M46 MPH          SCOTLAND           NC   ASOS

            46 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE KMEB ASOS AT 457 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200545

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
518 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ075-076-052200-
LEE-MOORE-
518 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MOORE AND LEE COUNTIES
THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 518 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 8 MILES
EAST OF GLENDON...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTH OF CARTHAGE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE TRAMWAY...AND...GUM
SPRINGS.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 7965 3551 7977 3552 7936 3553 7932
      3553 7931 3554 7932 3555 7929 3554 7929
      3551 7926 3538 7911 3510 7940
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 318DEG 7KT 3550 7939

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
523 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW WENDELL            35.75N  78.42W
07/05/2012                   WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

            2 TREES DOWN AT A RESIDENCE ON ROCK COVE RD. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200546

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
540 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW DABNEY            36.36N  78.48W
07/05/2012                   VANCE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            2 TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200547

NP