Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Raleigh, NC

749 
WWUS52 KRAH 052012
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
412 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC037-105-052100-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-120705T2100Z/
CHATHAM NC-LEE NC-
412 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR LEE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES...

AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MONCURE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBORO...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... CUMNOCK...TRAMWAY...
SANFORD...LEMON SPRINGS...GUM SPRINGS AND BROADWAY.

THIS INCLUDES US HIGHWAY 1 BETWEEN EXITS 69 AND 84.

OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD QUICKLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARNED 
AREA.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3587 7891 3562 7899 3559 7895 3553 7896
      3531 7919 3535 7927 3540 7929 3543 7933
      3549 7935 3550 7934 3552 7936 3584 7946
      3584 7924 3586 7925 3587 7912
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 342DEG 7KT 3561 7908

$$

VINCENT

639 
WWUS52 KRAH 052023
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
423 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC037-105-052100-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-120705T2100Z/
CHATHAM NC-LEE NC-
423 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR LEE AND SOUTHERN CHATHAM COUNTIES...

AT 422 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MONCURE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... GUM SPRINGS...
SANFORD...TRAMWAY...LEMON SPRINGS AND BROADWAY.

THIS INCLUDES US HIGHWAY 1 BETWEEN EXITS 69 AND 84.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3535 7927 3540 7929 3543 7933 3549 7935
      3550 7934 3552 7936 3574 7943 3577 7895
      3562 7899 3559 7895 3553 7896 3531 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 318DEG 6KT 3560 7906

$$

VINCENT

236 
WWUS52 KRAH 052031
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
431 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC037-105-052100-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-120705T2100Z/
CHATHAM NC-LEE NC-
431 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR LEE AND SOUTHEASTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES...

AT 427 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MONCURE...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF SANFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...US HIGHWAY 1 BETWEEN 
EXITS 69 AND 84.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3535 7927 3540 7929 3543 7933 3549 7935
      3550 7934 3552 7936 3562 7939 3570 7897
      3561 7899 3559 7895 3553 7896 3531 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 333DEG 7KT 3558 7904

$$

VINCENT

362 
WWUS52 KRAH 052044
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
444 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC037-052053-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-120705T2100Z/
CHATHAM NC-
444 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHATHAM COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO LEE 
COUNTY...THEREFORE THE WARNING FOR CHATHAM COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

THIS INCLUDES US HIGHWAY 1 BETWEEN EXITS 79 AND 84.

LAT...LON 3535 7927 3540 7929 3545 7934 3552 7935
      3555 7930 3553 7926 3557 7924 3555 7922
      3556 7920 3558 7920 3563 7912 3562 7908
      3556 7903 3552 7897 3531 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 158DEG 4KT 3539 7918

$$

NCC105-052100-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-120705T2100Z/
LEE NC-
444 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR LEE COUNTY...

AT 441 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LEMON
SPRINGS...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF SANFORD...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... TRAMWAY...GUM
SPRINGS...CUMNOCK AND BROADWAY.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3535 7927 3540 7929 3545 7934 3552 7935
      3555 7930 3553 7926 3557 7924 3555 7922
      3556 7920 3558 7920 3563 7912 3562 7908
      3556 7903 3552 7897 3531 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 158DEG 4KT 3539 7918

$$

VINCENT

277 
WWUS52 KRAH 052103
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
503 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC105-052111-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-120705T2100Z/
LEE NC-
503 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LEE COUNTY EXPIRES AT 500 PM
EDT...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE SHIFTED EAST INTO HARNETT 
COUNTY...THEREFORE THE WARNING FOR LEE COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND 
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN LEE COUNTY THROUGH 
530 PM.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3535 7927 3540 7929 3545 7934 3552 7935
      3555 7930 3553 7926 3557 7924 3555 7922
      3556 7920 3558 7920 3563 7912 3562 7908
      3556 7903 3552 7897 3531 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 158DEG 4KT 3539 7918

$$

VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
331 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY. 14Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC DATA
INDICATED MULTIPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

TEMPERATURES:
THE 12Z GSO RAOB INDICATED A 1000-850 MB THICKNESS OF 1434 METERS
THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...
WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES IN VICINITY OF
1455 METERS BY 00Z...ROUGHLY 10-15 METERS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES H85 TEMPS IN THE 21-23C RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS PER 14Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS (THOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE PRESENT OVER WV IN ASSOC/W
MCS REMNANTS). HIGHS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM 95-98F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RDU AN EXCEPTION AT 101F. BASED ON YESTERDAY'S TEMPS AND
A 10-15 METER INCREASE IN THICKNESSES...EXPECT HIGHS IN VICINITY OF
100F TODAY...THOUGH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAY PREVENT HIGHS FROM
EXCEEDING THE MID/UPPER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. DECIDED TO INCREASE
THE HIGH AT RDU TO 102F BASED ON YESTERDAY'S READING. WILL DECREASE
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT THICKNESSES SUGGEST IN THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT WHERE OUTFLOW FROM MCS REMNANTS (AND NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION NEAR BLUEFIELD WV) MAY AFFECT TEMPS BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. H85 DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM 13-15C (55-60F) ACROSS THE AREA
AT 14Z...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN STRONG HEATING AND MIXING UP TO AT LEAST H85...ANTICIPATE THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT. IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LEE TROUGH...EXPECT DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS IN
THE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...OR 72-75F.

HEAT INDICES/HEAT ADVISORY:
WITH THE ABOVE T/TD DISCUSSION IN MIND...ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-110F IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105F IN THE TRIANGLE...AND GENERALLY 100-105F IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. DESPITE MAX HEAT INDICES FORECAST NEAR 105F IN
WAKE/FRANKLIN/WARREN COUNTIES...DECIDED NOT TO EXPAND THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO DEWPOINTS ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1 AND CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SEASONABLY STEEP TODAY ACCORDING TO 15Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA...IN VICINITY OF 6.5 C/KM. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS
EASILY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID
60S TO NEAR 70F (IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME MIX-DOWN BY 18-21Z)...
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE...PERHAPS
STRONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. W/REGARD TO FORCING... A
COMPLEX NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN IS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES. 1) A SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SC/OFFSHORE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
MAY INITIALLY SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. 2) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER
NORTHERN VA AT 03Z HAVE PROGRESSED INTO CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. 3) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER OHIO AT 03Z HAVE
PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHWEST VA BY 17Z THIS AFTERNOON...ALREADY FORCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST NC. 4) AN ONGOING
MCS IN WV AT 17Z...THOUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WILL PROVIDE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES 30-40% IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND 20-30% IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...AND ~20% IN THE CENTRAL/SE COASTAL
PLAIN.

SEVERE THREAT:
MLCAPE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE WILL RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS
TODAY...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NO MORE THAN 15-20 KT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES
ANALYZED PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS (1000-1600 J/KG...HIGHEST
WEST)...EXPECT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION PRIMARILY ALONG OUTFLOW.
THOUGH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OWING TO VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES/STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK IS INDICATED
ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK) BETWEEN 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 8-11 PM THIS
EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST DCAPE VALUES ARE PRESENT AND
WHERE THE RELATIVE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED AS REMNANT MCS
ACTIVITY PROGRESSES SOUTH/SSW INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT OWING TO 1000+ J/KG OF DCAPE/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MOVES EAST. AT THE SFC AND LOWER LEVELS...NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH
THE LEE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO REMAIN THE SAME...THUS EXPECT HIGHS TOMORROW VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAYS VALUES...AROUND 100 ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DWPTS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
(UPPER 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST)...THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 100-103 WEST TO 104-107 EAST. THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL
LEAVE AS-IS. AS FOR TSTM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY...NOTED SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL WARMING IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY/CAPE TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON TSTMS. GFS DEPICTS A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH PERHAPS THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACTIVITY AND STRONGER INTENSITY WILL BE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN ZONES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SFC DWPT PROGS SUGGEST BETTER CAPE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL
WIND DOWN DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH PC CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. LOWS
FRI NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

ON SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER TOP OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL WARMING. WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN AROUND 100. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WARMING AND WEAKENING LAPSE
RATES...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FURTHER REDUCED. BEST CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHER PW AND DWPTS
ARE LOCATED. LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...

ON SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
MOVES SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST HOT DAY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO AIRMASS CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 100. WITH MID LEVELS BEGINNING TO
COOL AND PWAT INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND THE ASSOC COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN AT LEAST A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
ASIDE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO ~50 KT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 00Z THIS
EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD:
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH N/NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. -VINCENT

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND YEAR RECORD LAST SET.

RALEIGH-DURHAM...      GREENSBORO...

07/05   102    1999        98    1990
07/06   102    1999       100    1977
07/07   102    2010       101    1977
07/08   103    1977       102    1977

FAYETTEVILLE...
07/05   101    2002
07/06    99    1990
07/07   103    2010
07/08   102    1977

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-061615-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 11
PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR
ABOVE 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-073-061615-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND 11 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH
AS 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ008>010-025-026-040-041-074>076-083-084-061615-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-CHATHAM-WAKE-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-
LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND 11 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR
ABOVE 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W SCHLEY              36.15N  79.12W
07/05/2012                   ORANGE             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            COUPLE OF TREES DOWN ON WALNUT GROVE CHURCH ROAD OFF OF
            NC 86N

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200537

KRR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
311 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ040-041-077-051945-
CHATHAM-HARNETT-WAKE-
311 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS HARNETT...WAKE AND CHATHAM
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 311 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DUNCAN...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF LILLINGTON...MOVING SOUTH AT
10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DUNCAN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 7896 3548 7901 3552 7897 3554 7899
      3555 7903 3563 7906 3569 7885 3540 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 340DEG 8KT 3558 7891

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E CREEDMOOR           36.12N  78.58W
07/05/2012                   GRANVILLE          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ALONG BRASSFIELD CHURCH ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200538

DJF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
319 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E CREEDMOOR           36.11N  78.58W
07/05/2012                   GRANVILLE          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ALONG HORSESHOE ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200539

DJF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E LOUISBURG           36.10N  78.24W
07/05/2012                   FRANKLIN           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200540

NP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
358 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW ABERDEEN           35.13N  79.43W
07/05/2012                   MOORE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN NEAR ABERDEEN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200541

KRR