Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Raleigh, NC

578 
WWUS52 KRAH 052028
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
428 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC127-052037-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-120705T2115Z/
NASH NC-
428 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN NASH COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3542 7816 3536 7816 3532 7828 3529 7831
      3529 7852 3531 7854 3531 7856 3549 7869
      3571 7857 3584 7829 3583 7826 3577 7825
      3573 7820 3573 7819 3561 7813 3559 7807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 327DEG 8KT 3568 7817 3565 7855

$$

NCC085-101-183-052115-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-120705T2115Z/
WAKE NC-JOHNSTON NC-HARNETT NC-
428 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL HARNETT...JOHNSTON AND SOUTHEASTERN WAKE COUNTIES...

AT 422 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EMIT TO 6 MILES WEST
OF CLAYTON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SMITHFIELD TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RALEIGH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... FLOWERS...SMITHFIELD...
SELMA...PRINCETON...PINE LEVEL...MICRO...KENLY...FOUR OAKS...COATS
CROSSROADS AND BENSON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 312 AND 334.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3542 7816 3536 7816 3532 7828 3529 7831
      3529 7852 3531 7854 3531 7856 3549 7869
      3571 7857 3584 7829 3583 7826 3577 7825
      3573 7820 3573 7819 3561 7813 3559 7807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 327DEG 8KT 3568 7817 3565 7855

$$

23

240 
WWUS52 KRAH 052048
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
448 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC183-052057-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-120705T2115Z/
WAKE NC-
448 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAKE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3542 7816 3536 7816 3532 7828 3529 7831
      3529 7852 3531 7854 3531 7856 3549 7869
      3557 7864 3571 7846 3581 7826 3577 7825
      3573 7819 3561 7813 3559 7807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 327DEG 8KT 3560 7814 3554 7855

$$

NCC085-101-052115-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-120705T2115Z/
JOHNSTON NC-HARNETT NC-
448 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL HARNETT AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES...

AT 446 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KENLY TO COATS CROSSROADS...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF SMITHFIELD TO 12 MILES WEST
OF SMITHFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... MICRO...SELMA...
SMITHFIELD...PRINCETON...PINE LEVEL...FOUR OAKS AND BENSON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 312 AND 334.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 77 AND 107.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3542 7816 3536 7816 3532 7828 3529 7831
      3529 7852 3531 7854 3531 7856 3549 7869
      3557 7864 3571 7846 3581 7826 3577 7825
      3573 7819 3561 7813 3559 7807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 327DEG 8KT 3560 7814 3554 7855

$$

23

206 
WWUS52 KRAH 052109
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
509 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC085-101-052115-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-120705T2115Z/
JOHNSTON NC-HARNETT NC-
509 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL HARNETT AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES...

AT 504 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FOUR
OAKS...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SMITHFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... PINE LEVEL AND
PRINCETON.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS 
CLEVELAND AND COATS CROSSROADS. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS 
SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY 
FROM WINDOWS!

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF WIND 
DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3542 7816 3536 7816 3532 7828 3529 7831
      3529 7852 3531 7854 3531 7856 3549 7869
      3557 7864 3567 7852 3568 7816 3561 7813
      3559 7807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 321DEG 31KT 3542 7841

$$

23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
331 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY. 14Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC DATA
INDICATED MULTIPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

TEMPERATURES:
THE 12Z GSO RAOB INDICATED A 1000-850 MB THICKNESS OF 1434 METERS
THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...
WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES IN VICINITY OF
1455 METERS BY 00Z...ROUGHLY 10-15 METERS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES H85 TEMPS IN THE 21-23C RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS PER 14Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS (THOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE PRESENT OVER WV IN ASSOC/W
MCS REMNANTS). HIGHS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM 95-98F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RDU AN EXCEPTION AT 101F. BASED ON YESTERDAY'S TEMPS AND
A 10-15 METER INCREASE IN THICKNESSES...EXPECT HIGHS IN VICINITY OF
100F TODAY...THOUGH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAY PREVENT HIGHS FROM
EXCEEDING THE MID/UPPER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. DECIDED TO INCREASE
THE HIGH AT RDU TO 102F BASED ON YESTERDAY'S READING. WILL DECREASE
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT THICKNESSES SUGGEST IN THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT WHERE OUTFLOW FROM MCS REMNANTS (AND NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION NEAR BLUEFIELD WV) MAY AFFECT TEMPS BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. H85 DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM 13-15C (55-60F) ACROSS THE AREA
AT 14Z...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN STRONG HEATING AND MIXING UP TO AT LEAST H85...ANTICIPATE THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT. IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LEE TROUGH...EXPECT DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS IN
THE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...OR 72-75F.

HEAT INDICES/HEAT ADVISORY:
WITH THE ABOVE T/TD DISCUSSION IN MIND...ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-110F IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105F IN THE TRIANGLE...AND GENERALLY 100-105F IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. DESPITE MAX HEAT INDICES FORECAST NEAR 105F IN
WAKE/FRANKLIN/WARREN COUNTIES...DECIDED NOT TO EXPAND THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO DEWPOINTS ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1 AND CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SEASONABLY STEEP TODAY ACCORDING TO 15Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA...IN VICINITY OF 6.5 C/KM. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS
EASILY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID
60S TO NEAR 70F (IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME MIX-DOWN BY 18-21Z)...
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE...PERHAPS
STRONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. W/REGARD TO FORCING... A
COMPLEX NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN IS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES. 1) A SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SC/OFFSHORE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
MAY INITIALLY SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. 2) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER
NORTHERN VA AT 03Z HAVE PROGRESSED INTO CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. 3) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER OHIO AT 03Z HAVE
PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHWEST VA BY 17Z THIS AFTERNOON...ALREADY FORCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST NC. 4) AN ONGOING
MCS IN WV AT 17Z...THOUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WILL PROVIDE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES 30-40% IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND 20-30% IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...AND ~20% IN THE CENTRAL/SE COASTAL
PLAIN.

SEVERE THREAT:
MLCAPE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE WILL RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS
TODAY...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NO MORE THAN 15-20 KT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES
ANALYZED PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS (1000-1600 J/KG...HIGHEST
WEST)...EXPECT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION PRIMARILY ALONG OUTFLOW.
THOUGH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OWING TO VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES/STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK IS INDICATED
ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK) BETWEEN 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 8-11 PM THIS
EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST DCAPE VALUES ARE PRESENT AND
WHERE THE RELATIVE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED AS REMNANT MCS
ACTIVITY PROGRESSES SOUTH/SSW INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT OWING TO 1000+ J/KG OF DCAPE/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MOVES EAST. AT THE SFC AND LOWER LEVELS...NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH
THE LEE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO REMAIN THE SAME...THUS EXPECT HIGHS TOMORROW VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAYS VALUES...AROUND 100 ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DWPTS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
(UPPER 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST)...THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 100-103 WEST TO 104-107 EAST. THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL
LEAVE AS-IS. AS FOR TSTM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY...NOTED SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL WARMING IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY/CAPE TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON TSTMS. GFS DEPICTS A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH PERHAPS THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACTIVITY AND STRONGER INTENSITY WILL BE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN ZONES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SFC DWPT PROGS SUGGEST BETTER CAPE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL
WIND DOWN DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH PC CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. LOWS
FRI NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

ON SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER TOP OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL WARMING. WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN AROUND 100. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WARMING AND WEAKENING LAPSE
RATES...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FURTHER REDUCED. BEST CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHER PW AND DWPTS
ARE LOCATED. LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...

ON SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
MOVES SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST HOT DAY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO AIRMASS CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 100. WITH MID LEVELS BEGINNING TO
COOL AND PWAT INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND THE ASSOC COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN AT LEAST A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
ASIDE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO ~50 KT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 00Z THIS
EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD:
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH N/NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. -VINCENT

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND YEAR RECORD LAST SET.

RALEIGH-DURHAM...      GREENSBORO...

07/05   102    1999        98    1990
07/06   102    1999       100    1977
07/07   102    2010       101    1977
07/08   103    1977       102    1977

FAYETTEVILLE...
07/05   101    2002
07/06    99    1990
07/07   103    2010
07/08   102    1977

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-061615-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 11
PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR
ABOVE 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-073-061615-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND 11 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH
AS 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ008>010-025-026-040-041-074>076-083-084-061615-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-CHATHAM-WAKE-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-
LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND 11 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR
ABOVE 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
311 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ040-041-077-051945-
CHATHAM-HARNETT-WAKE-
311 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS HARNETT...WAKE AND CHATHAM
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 311 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DUNCAN...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF LILLINGTON...MOVING SOUTH AT
10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DUNCAN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 7896 3548 7901 3552 7897 3554 7899
      3555 7903 3563 7906 3569 7885 3540 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 340DEG 8KT 3558 7891

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E CREEDMOOR           36.12N  78.58W
07/05/2012                   GRANVILLE          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ALONG BRASSFIELD CHURCH ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200538

DJF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
319 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E CREEDMOOR           36.11N  78.58W
07/05/2012                   GRANVILLE          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ALONG HORSESHOE ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200539

DJF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E LOUISBURG           36.10N  78.24W
07/05/2012                   FRANKLIN           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200540

NP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
358 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW ABERDEEN           35.13N  79.43W
07/05/2012                   MOORE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN NEAR ABERDEEN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200541

KRR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
406 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ075-084>086-052045-
HOKE-MOORE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
406 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SCOTLAND...RICHMOND...MOORE
AND HOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ABERDEEN...OR ABOUT OVER SOUTHERN PINES...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ASHLEY HEIGHTS...AND...
PINEBLUFF.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 7928 3494 7958 3523 7956 3522 7926
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 003DEG 6KT 3513 7942

VINCENT