Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Raleigh, NC

126 
WWUS52 KRAH 051815
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC069-181-185-051845-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-120705T1845Z/
FRANKLIN NC-VANCE NC-WARREN NC-
215 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...SOUTHEASTERN VANCE AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES...

AT 213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
INGLESIDE...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF LOUISBURG...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... CENTERVILLE AND
FRANKLINTON.

LARGE HAIL WILL DAMAGE VEHICLES...WINDOWS AND SOME ROOFS. SEVERE
WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE MOBILE
HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3630 7819 3625 7809 3615 7804 3602 7813
      3606 7849 3635 7841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 357DEG 9KT 3621 7826

$$

ELLIS

992 
WWUS52 KRAH 051828
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
228 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC069-181-185-051845-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-120705T1845Z/
FRANKLIN NC-VANCE NC-WARREN NC-
228 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...SOUTHEASTERN VANCE AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES...

AT 227 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
INGLESIDE...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF LOUISBURG...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... FRANKLINTON.

LARGE HAIL WILL DAMAGE VEHICLES...WINDOWS AND SOME ROOFS. SEVERE
WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE MOBILE
HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3624 7811 3615 7804 3602 7813 3606 7849
      3626 7840 3629 7821
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 357DEG 9KT 3617 7826

$$

ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY. 14Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC DATA
INDICATED MULTIPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

TEMPERATURES:
THE 12Z GSO RAOB INDICATED A 1000-850 MB THICKNESS OF 1434 METERS
THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...
WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES IN VICINITY OF
1455 METERS BY 00Z...ROUGHLY 10-15 METERS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES H85 TEMPS IN THE 21-23C RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS PER 14Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS (THOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE PRESENT OVER WV IN ASSOC/W
MCS REMNANTS). HIGHS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM 95-98F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RDU AN EXCEPTION AT 101F. BASED ON YESTERDAY'S TEMPS AND
A 10-15 METER INCREASE IN THICKNESSES...EXPECT HIGHS IN VICINITY OF
100F TODAY...THOUGH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAY PREVENT HIGHS FROM
EXCEEDING THE MID/UPPER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. DECIDED TO INCREASE
THE HIGH AT RDU TO 102F BASED ON YESTERDAY'S READING. WILL DECREASE
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT THICKNESSES SUGGEST IN THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT WHERE OUTFLOW FROM MCS REMNANTS (AND NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION NEAR BLUEFIELD WV) MAY AFFECT TEMPS BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. H85 DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM 13-15C (55-60F) ACROSS THE AREA
AT 14Z...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN STRONG HEATING AND MIXING UP TO AT LEAST H85...ANTICIPATE THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT. IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LEE TROUGH...EXPECT DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS IN
THE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...OR 72-75F.

HEAT INDICES/HEAT ADVISORY:
WITH THE ABOVE T/TD DISCUSSION IN MIND...ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-110F IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105F IN THE TRIANGLE...AND GENERALLY 100-105F IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. DESPITE MAX HEAT INDICES FORECAST NEAR 105F IN
WAKE/FRANKLIN/WARREN COUNTIES...DECIDED NOT TO EXPAND THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO DEWPOINTS ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1 AND CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SEASONABLY STEEP TODAY ACCORDING TO 15Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA...IN VICINITY OF 6.5 C/KM. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS
EASILY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID
60S TO NEAR 70F (IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME MIX-DOWN BY 18-21Z)...
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE...PERHAPS
STRONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. W/REGARD TO FORCING... A
COMPLEX NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN IS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES. 1) A SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SC/OFFSHORE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
MAY INITIALLY SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. 2) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER
NORTHERN VA AT 03Z HAVE PROGRESSED INTO CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. 3) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER OHIO AT 03Z HAVE
PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHWEST VA BY 17Z THIS AFTERNOON...ALREADY FORCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST NC. 4) AN ONGOING
MCS IN WV AT 17Z...THOUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WILL PROVIDE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES 30-40% IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND 20-30% IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...AND ~20% IN THE CENTRAL/SE COASTAL
PLAIN.

SEVERE THREAT:
MLCAPE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE WILL RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS
TODAY...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NO MORE THAN 15-20 KT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES
ANALYZED PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS (1000-1600 J/KG...HIGHEST
WEST)...EXPECT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION PRIMARILY ALONG OUTFLOW.
THOUGH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OWING TO VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES/STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK IS INDICATED
ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK) BETWEEN 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 8-11 PM THIS
EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST DCAPE VALUES ARE PRESENT AND
WHERE THE RELATIVE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED AS REMNANT MCS
ACTIVITY PROGRESSES SOUTH/SSW INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT OWING TO 1000+ J/KG OF DCAPE/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID. THE SURFACE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN AND NORTHERN VA NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THEN WESTWARD ACROSS MI AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY... WITH THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH PERSISTING
THROUGH CENTRAL NC. THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS MIGHT BE A BYPRODUCT OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY... THE SUBPAR
PERFORMANCE OF BOTH MODELS WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE
OH/WV BORDER INTO SW PA GREATLY REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN THE SUBSEQUENT
MODEL DETAILS. WHILE IT IS CERTAINLY REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT WE
MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY AN UPSTREAM MCV SOMETIME FRIDAY BASED ON THE
ONGOING LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS... THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NRN MISSOURI WILL STEADILY EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... RESULTING IN AROUND A
20-30 METER MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISE OVER NC AND LIKELY CAUSING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DEFLECTION IN MOVEMENT OF ANY SUCH MCV TOWARD
THE SRN APPALACHIANS / WRN NC... WHERE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 6.75-7.0 C/KM. HOWEVER... INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO BORDERLINE STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2800 J/KG... AND WITH MARGINAL BUT
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 20 KTS. SO EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF
CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION... WE
SHOULD STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1.8-1.9 INCHES... ABOUT 150% OF NORMAL.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EARLIER FORECAST. WE
MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS SOME
HAIL GIVEN THAT CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000
J/KG WITH NORMALIZED CAPE OVER 0.20 M/S2. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES --
WHICH ARE PROJECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND -- POINT TO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN A FEW OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 100 ACROSS THE AREA... WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS
PERSISTENCE. SURFACE DEW POINT FORECAST INDICATE ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC EXCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION.
MODELS INDICATE LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT... BUT WITH
PROJECTIONS OF WANING PRECIP WATER AND CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVELS...
WE SHOULD SEE A 10 PERCENT OR LOWER COVERAGE OF NIGHTTIME PRECIP...
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS 71-76.

FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: STILL HOT WITH EVEN LOWER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH NC... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SLIP TO JUST 6.0-6.25 C/KM WITH
DRYING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO
THE INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHWARD-DRIFTING SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT
DROPPING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY... AND WE SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING OF
THE LEE TROUGH WITH DIMINISHING MID LEVEL WINDS. WITH CONTINUED
STRONG SURFACE HEATING... WILL NOT GO ENTIRELY DRY BUT WILL RESTRICT
PRECIP CHANCES TO EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE HIGHER PRECIP WATER AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL RESIDE... AND WILL CONFINE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS AGAIN 98-102.
PREDICTED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS SHOULD SUPPORT YET ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES... AND MORE HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED... ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER
MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS WHICH COULD SUPPRESS HEAT INDICES A BIT.
BREEZES STAYING UP OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...
THUS ANTICIPATE WARMER LOWS OF 74-78. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...

FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
ACROSS NC BUT WILL HAVE BECOME STRETCHED AND WEAKENED WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDATLANTIC... FORESHADOWING A PATTERN CHANGE AS A
CANADIAN VORTEX DEEPENS OVER THE BORDER OF QUEBEC WITH LABRADOR. AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF
THE COUNTRY... THE SURFACE COOL FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE VA/NC STATE LINE... ALTHOUGH HOW FAR SOUTHWARD IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS RANGE. BUT GFS/ECMWF THICKNESSES REMAIN QUITE
HIGH... AND EXPECT THE HEAT TO HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY... WITH JUST
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES AS THE MID LEVELS REMAIN RATHER WARM AND DRY.
HIGHS AGAIN CLOSE TO 100 WITH MORNING THICKNESSES IN THE 1430-1435
METER RANGE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LIKELY TO POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AN END TO THE HEAT WAVE MAY BE IN
SIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MID
SOUTH. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR... RISING MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MAY WEAKEN A BIT TOWARD WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD STILL HOLD OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA... ROUGHLY
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THIS PATTERN... THE
SURFACE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL OUT OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WITH
A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN BOTH THE MSLP AND LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS... TYPICAL FOR JULY IN NC. THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITHIN A
STEADY STREAM OF WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WITH A CONTINUED
TAPPING OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THICKNESSES HEAD BACK DOWN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO INCREASED
CLOUDINESS... INDICATIVE OF HIGHS NEAR OR JUST UNDER NORMAL HIGHS
BUT WITH ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM THURSDAY...

A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING 4-6SM VSBYS THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
ARE VERY ISOLATED...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC...AND POSSIBLY
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HELPS
TRIGGER STORMS IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
ANY IMPACTS AT TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK....
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK EAST OVER THE REGION.  A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND YEAR RECORD LAST SET.

RALEIGH-DURHAM...      GREENSBORO...

07/05   102    1999        98    1990
07/06   102    1999       100    1977
07/07   102    2010       101    1977
07/08   103    1977       102    1977

FAYETTEVILLE...
07/05   101    2002
07/06    99    1990
07/07   103    2010
07/08   102    1977

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRR/SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-061615-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 11
PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR
ABOVE 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-073-061615-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND 11 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH
AS 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ008>010-025-026-040-041-074>076-083-084-061615-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-CHATHAM-WAKE-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-
LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND 11 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR
ABOVE 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1110 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             3 ESE ROCKY MOUNT       35.94N  77.73W
07/04/2012  E1.00 INCH       EDGECOMBE          NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON U.S. 64. TIME ESTIAMTED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200528

BLAES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1112 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW LUCAMA            35.66N  78.05W
07/04/2012                   WILSON             NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN IN MORRES CROSSING. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200529

BLAES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1113 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE MIDDLESEX          35.81N  78.18W
07/04/2012                   NASH               NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR MIDDLESEX. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW RALEIGH           35.84N  78.66W
07/04/2012                   WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN AT THE 4000 BLOCK OF YADKIN DRIVE.

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW RALEIGH            35.83N  78.66W
07/04/2012                   WAKE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN ON ALLEGHANY DR... TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW FALLS LAKE        35.89N  78.66W
07/04/2012                   WAKE               NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ONE TREE BLOWN DOWN AT THE CORNER OF VESTAVIA WOODS
            DRIVE AND HEPWORTH CT.

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 ESE VASS              35.20N  79.16W
07/04/2012                   MOORE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
            THE COUNTY

0454 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW BLACK CREEK       35.68N  77.96W
07/04/2012                   WILSON             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINE DOWN ON ST MARYS CHURCH ROAD... TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW LUCAMA            35.66N  78.05W
07/04/2012                   WILSON             NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN IN MORRES CROSSING. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW RALEIGH           35.78N  78.70W
07/04/2012                   WAKE               NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN... INCLUDING ONE ON A HOUSE... TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0515 PM     HAIL             SPRING HOPE             35.94N  78.11W
07/04/2012  M1.00 INCH       NASH               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY POLICE NEAR NASH AND
            POPLAR STREETS.

0530 PM     HAIL             3 ESE ROCKY MOUNT       35.94N  77.73W
07/04/2012  E1.00 INCH       EDGECOMBE          NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON U.S. 64. TIME ESTIAMTED BY RADAR.

0540 PM     HAIL             2 NE KINGSBORO          35.93N  77.65W
07/04/2012  E0.50 INCH       EDGECOMBE          NC   PUBLIC

            SMALL HAIL OBSERVED AT THE IANDN STORM. SIZE ESTIMATED.

0559 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N SILVER CITY         35.03N  79.23W
07/04/2012                   HOKE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON JUNE JOHNSON ROAD

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W CENTERVILLE         36.19N  78.16W
07/04/2012                   FRANKLIN           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY

0620 PM     HAIL             4 W CENTERVILLE         36.20N  78.19W
07/04/2012  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON GOLD SAND ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W CENTERVILLE         36.19N  78.14W
07/04/2012                   FRANKLIN           NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SWEVERAL TREES DOWN IN AND NEAR CENTERVILLE. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200525 RAH1200520 RAH1200514 RAH1200523 RAH1200515
RAH1200516 RAH1200529 RAH1200522 RAH1200517 RAH1200528 RAH1200518
RAH1200519 RAH1200521 RAH1200527 RAH1200526

BLAES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1257 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ007-008-051745-
GRANVILLE-PERSON-
1257 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS PERSON AND GRANVILLE
COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 1257 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF BETHEL HILL...OR ABOUT OVER VIRGILINA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OAK HILL.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING
AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT
OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3642 7851 3636 7851 3625 7873 3655 7893
      3655 7864
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 326DEG 12KT 3654 7879

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
132 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ021-038-051830-
DAVIDSON-FORSYTH-
132 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS FORSYTH AND DAVIDSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 132 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES
NORTH OF HUNTSVILLE...OR ABOUT OVER EAST BEND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE LEWISVILLE...
PFAFFTOWN...CLEMMONS...WINSTON-SALEM...ARCADIA...MIDWAY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 182 AND 201.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8044 3622 8044 3626 8046 3627 8040
      3613 8004 3581 8024 3585 8039 3589 8042
      3589 8037 3596 8038 3599 8043 3601 8042
      3606 8047 3604 8048 3605 8051 3609 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 303DEG 25KT 3615 8050

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
149 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ023>025-051830-
ALAMANCE-DURHAM-ORANGE-
149 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ORANGE...DURHAM AND ALAMANCE
COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 148 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SCHLEY...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTH OF HILLSBOROUGH...MOVING SOUTH AT 20
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE HILLSBOROUGH...
EFLAND...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...AND MEBANE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING
AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT
OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 7883 3619 7880 3609 7881 3607 7879
      3607 7875 3603 7875 3603 7871 3598 7871
      3592 7876 3593 7880 3590 7882 3587 7899
      3588 7925 3584 7925 3585 7940 3625 7939
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 351DEG 17KT 3615 7910

VINCENT