Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Raleigh, NC

454 
WWUS52 KRAH 051910
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC069-077-127-183-051945-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0184.000000T0000Z-120705T1945Z/
FRANKLIN NC-GRANVILLE NC-WAKE NC-NASH NC-
310 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN NASH...NORTHERN WAKE...SOUTHERN GRANVILLE AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES...

AT 309 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FALLS LAKE TO CASTALIA...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF RALEIGH TO NASHVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... BUNN...ROLESVILLE...
SPRING HOPE AND PILOT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 184 AND 191.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 540 BETWEEN EXITS 2 AND 18.

LARGE HAIL WILL DAMAGE VEHICLES...WINDOWS AND SOME ROOFS. SEVERE
WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE MOBILE
HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3621 7811 3621 7805 3618 7798 3619 7794
      3615 7789 3614 7785 3584 7805 3587 7883
      3593 7881 3592 7876 3600 7870 3607 7875
      3609 7881 3616 7880 3620 7851 3617 7850
      3616 7842 3621 7839 3624 7813
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 325DEG 18KT 3595 7857 3600 7803

$$

ELLIS

560 
WWUS52 KRAH 051931
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
331 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC069-077-127-183-051945-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0184.000000T0000Z-120705T1945Z/
FRANKLIN NC-GRANVILLE NC-WAKE NC-NASH NC-
331 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN NASH...NORTHERN WAKE...SOUTH CENTRAL GRANVILLE AND
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 327 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROLESVILLE TO 8 MILES EAST OF SPRING
HOPE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH TO
NASHVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... PILOT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 540 BETWEEN EXITS 2 AND 18.

LARGE HAIL WILL DAMAGE VEHICLES...WINDOWS AND SOME ROOFS. SEVERE
WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE MOBILE
HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3609 7826 3608 7806 3599 7799 3584 7805
      3587 7883 3593 7880 3592 7876 3598 7871
      3600 7870 3606 7872 3612 7844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 325DEG 18KT 3587 7850 3592 7796

$$

ELLIS

501 
WWUS52 KRAH 051941
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
341 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCC069-077-127-183-051951-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0184.000000T0000Z-120705T1945Z/
FRANKLIN NC-GRANVILLE NC-WAKE NC-NASH NC-
341 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN NASH...NORTHERN
WAKE...SOUTH CENTRAL GRANVILLE AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES EXPIRES
AT 345 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND THE WARNING 
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

WHILE THE IMMEDIATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DISSIPATED...ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BE PREPARED TO
MOVE QUICKLY TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A SAFE SHELTER IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3609 7826 3608 7806 3599 7799 3584 7805
      3587 7883 3593 7880 3592 7876 3598 7871
      3600 7870 3606 7872 3612 7844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 325DEG 18KT 3583 7846 3588 7792

$$

ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY. 14Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC DATA
INDICATED MULTIPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

TEMPERATURES:
THE 12Z GSO RAOB INDICATED A 1000-850 MB THICKNESS OF 1434 METERS
THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...
WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES IN VICINITY OF
1455 METERS BY 00Z...ROUGHLY 10-15 METERS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES H85 TEMPS IN THE 21-23C RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS PER 14Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS (THOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE PRESENT OVER WV IN ASSOC/W
MCS REMNANTS). HIGHS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM 95-98F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...RDU AN EXCEPTION AT 101F. BASED ON YESTERDAY'S TEMPS AND
A 10-15 METER INCREASE IN THICKNESSES...EXPECT HIGHS IN VICINITY OF
100F TODAY...THOUGH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAY PREVENT HIGHS FROM
EXCEEDING THE MID/UPPER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. DECIDED TO INCREASE
THE HIGH AT RDU TO 102F BASED ON YESTERDAY'S READING. WILL DECREASE
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT THICKNESSES SUGGEST IN THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT WHERE OUTFLOW FROM MCS REMNANTS (AND NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION NEAR BLUEFIELD WV) MAY AFFECT TEMPS BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. H85 DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM 13-15C (55-60F) ACROSS THE AREA
AT 14Z...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN STRONG HEATING AND MIXING UP TO AT LEAST H85...ANTICIPATE THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT. IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LEE TROUGH...EXPECT DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS IN
THE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...OR 72-75F.

HEAT INDICES/HEAT ADVISORY:
WITH THE ABOVE T/TD DISCUSSION IN MIND...ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-110F IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105F IN THE TRIANGLE...AND GENERALLY 100-105F IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. DESPITE MAX HEAT INDICES FORECAST NEAR 105F IN
WAKE/FRANKLIN/WARREN COUNTIES...DECIDED NOT TO EXPAND THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO DEWPOINTS ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1 AND CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SEASONABLY STEEP TODAY ACCORDING TO 15Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA...IN VICINITY OF 6.5 C/KM. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS
EASILY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID
60S TO NEAR 70F (IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME MIX-DOWN BY 18-21Z)...
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE...PERHAPS
STRONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. W/REGARD TO FORCING... A
COMPLEX NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN IS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES. 1) A SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SC/OFFSHORE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
MAY INITIALLY SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. 2) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER
NORTHERN VA AT 03Z HAVE PROGRESSED INTO CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. 3) THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER OHIO AT 03Z HAVE
PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHWEST VA BY 17Z THIS AFTERNOON...ALREADY FORCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST NC. 4) AN ONGOING
MCS IN WV AT 17Z...THOUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WILL PROVIDE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES 30-40% IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND 20-30% IN
VICINITY OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...AND ~20% IN THE CENTRAL/SE COASTAL
PLAIN.

SEVERE THREAT:
MLCAPE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE WILL RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS
TODAY...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NO MORE THAN 15-20 KT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES
ANALYZED PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS (1000-1600 J/KG...HIGHEST
WEST)...EXPECT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION PRIMARILY ALONG OUTFLOW.
THOUGH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OWING TO VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES/STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK IS INDICATED
ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK) BETWEEN 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 8-11 PM THIS
EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST DCAPE VALUES ARE PRESENT AND
WHERE THE RELATIVE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED AS REMNANT MCS
ACTIVITY PROGRESSES SOUTH/SSW INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT OWING TO 1000+ J/KG OF DCAPE/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MOVES EAST. AT THE SFC AND LOWER LEVELS...NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH
THE LEE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO REMAIN THE SAME...THUS EXPECT HIGHS TOMORROW VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAYS VALUES...AROUND 100 ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DWPTS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
(UPPER 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST)...THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 100-103 WEST TO 104-107 EAST. THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL
LEAVE AS-IS. AS FOR TSTM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY...NOTED SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL WARMING IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY/CAPE TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON TSTMS. GFS DEPICTS A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH PERHAPS THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACTIVITY AND STRONGER INTENSITY WILL BE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN ZONES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SFC DWPT PROGS SUGGEST BETTER CAPE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL
WIND DOWN DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH PC CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. LOWS
FRI NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

ON SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER TOP OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL WARMING. WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN AROUND 100. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WARMING AND WEAKENING LAPSE
RATES...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FURTHER REDUCED. BEST CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHER PW AND DWPTS
ARE LOCATED. LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...

ON SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
MOVES SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST HOT DAY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO AIRMASS CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 100. WITH MID LEVELS BEGINNING TO
COOL AND PWAT INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND THE ASSOC COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN AT LEAST A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM THURSDAY...

A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING 4-6SM VSBYS THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
ARE VERY ISOLATED...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC...AND POSSIBLY
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HELPS
TRIGGER STORMS IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
ANY IMPACTS AT TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK....
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK EAST OVER THE REGION.  A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND YEAR RECORD LAST SET.

RALEIGH-DURHAM...      GREENSBORO...

07/05   102    1999        98    1990
07/06   102    1999       100    1977
07/07   102    2010       101    1977
07/08   103    1977       102    1977

FAYETTEVILLE...
07/05   101    2002
07/06    99    1990
07/07   103    2010
07/08   102    1977

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-061615-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 11
PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR
ABOVE 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-073-061615-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND 11 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH
AS 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ008>010-025-026-040-041-074>076-083-084-061615-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-CHATHAM-WAKE-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-
LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
1205 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND 11 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR
ABOVE 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
149 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ023>025-051830-
ALAMANCE-DURHAM-ORANGE-
149 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ORANGE...DURHAM AND ALAMANCE
COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 148 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SCHLEY...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTH OF HILLSBOROUGH...MOVING SOUTH AT 20
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE HILLSBOROUGH...
EFLAND...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...AND MEBANE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING
AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT
OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 7883 3619 7880 3609 7881 3607 7879
      3607 7875 3603 7875 3603 7871 3598 7871
      3592 7876 3593 7880 3590 7882 3587 7899
      3588 7925 3584 7925 3585 7940 3625 7939
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 351DEG 17KT 3615 7910

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
206 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ021-022-051900-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-
206 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF GUILFORD AND
EASTERN FORSYTH COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 205 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
STOKESDALE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BELEWS CREEK...MOVING
SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BELEWS CREEK...
STOKESDALE...SUMMERFIELD...COLFAX...AND...KERNERSVILLE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 37 AND 219.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 113 AND 124.

IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NEARBY OR OVERHEAD...MOVE INDOORS. IF
OUTDOORS...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG
WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF BLOWING AROUND LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS LEFT
OUTDOORS. STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 7983 3591 7974 3592 8004 3593 8005
      3601 8004 3602 8010 3626 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 008DEG 16KT 3627 7998

DJF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
218 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ038-051915-
DAVIDSON-
218 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF DAVIDSON COUNTY AT
LEAST THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 215 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF ARCADIA...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WINSTON-SALEM...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THOMASVILLE...ALSO MOVING SOUTH AT 30
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE WELCOME...LEXINGTON...
LINWOOD...HIGH ROCK...AND NEWSOM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 83 AND 103.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING. STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3585 8039 3588 8042 3589 8041 3589 8037
      3598 8039 3600 8032 3600 8022 3603 8021
      3601 8004 3551 8007 3550 8019 3558 8021
      3568 8034 3571 8033 3574 8046 3584 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 341DEG 28KT 3598 8035

DJF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
224 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW BLACK CREEK       35.65N  77.97W
07/04/2012                   WILSON             NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS SEVERAL POWER POLES BLOWN OVER ON
            BLALOCK ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200530

BLAES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE MIDDLESEX          35.81N  78.18W
07/04/2012                   NASH               NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR MIDDLESEX. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW RALEIGH           35.84N  78.66W
07/04/2012                   WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN AT THE 4000 BLOCK OF YADKIN DRIVE.

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW RALEIGH            35.83N  78.66W
07/04/2012                   WAKE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN ON ALLEGHANY DR... TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 ESE VASS              35.20N  79.16W
07/04/2012                   MOORE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
            THE COUNTY

0454 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW BLACK CREEK       35.68N  77.96W
07/04/2012                   WILSON             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINE DOWN ON ST MARYS CHURCH ROAD... TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW FALLS LAKE        35.89N  78.66W
07/04/2012                   WAKE               NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ONE TREE BLOWN DOWN AT THE CORNER OF VESTAVIA WOODS
            DRIVE AND HEPWORTH CT.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW LUCAMA            35.66N  78.05W
07/04/2012                   WILSON             NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN IN MORRES CROSSING. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW RALEIGH           35.78N  78.70W
07/04/2012                   WAKE               NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN... INCLUDING ONE ON A HOUSE... TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0513 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW BLACK CREEK       35.65N  77.97W
07/04/2012                   WILSON             NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS SEVERAL POWER POLES BLOWN OVER ON
            BLALOCK ROAD.

0515 PM     HAIL             SPRING HOPE             35.94N  78.11W
07/04/2012  M1.00 INCH       NASH               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY POLICE NEAR NASH AND
            POPLAR STREETS.

0530 PM     HAIL             3 ESE ROCKY MOUNT       35.94N  77.73W
07/04/2012  E1.00 INCH       EDGECOMBE          NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON U.S. 64. TIME ESTIAMTED BY RADAR.

0540 PM     HAIL             2 NE KINGSBORO          35.93N  77.65W
07/04/2012  E0.50 INCH       EDGECOMBE          NC   PUBLIC

            SMALL HAIL OBSERVED AT THE IANDN STORM. SIZE ESTIMATED.

0559 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N SILVER CITY         35.03N  79.23W
07/04/2012                   HOKE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON JUNE JOHNSON ROAD

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W CENTERVILLE         36.19N  78.16W
07/04/2012                   FRANKLIN           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY

0620 PM     HAIL             4 W CENTERVILLE         36.20N  78.19W
07/04/2012  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON GOLD SAND ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W CENTERVILLE         36.19N  78.14W
07/04/2012                   FRANKLIN           NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SWEVERAL TREES DOWN IN AND NEAR CENTERVILLE. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200525 RAH1200520 RAH1200514 RAH1200515 RAH1200516
RAH1200523 RAH1200529 RAH1200522 RAH1200530 RAH1200517 RAH1200528
RAH1200518 RAH1200519 RAH1200521 RAH1200527 RAH1200526

BLAES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
232 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W LEWISVILLE          36.10N  80.47W
07/05/2012                   FORSYTH            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO TREES DOWN IN THE LEWISVILLE AREA

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200531

DJF