River Flood Warning 20, NWS Medford, OR

002 
WGUS86 KMFR 030013
FLSMFR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD, OR
413 PM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
   OREGON...

  ROGUE RIVER  GOLD RAY AFFECTING JACKSON COUNTY...

ORC029-030043-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-121203T0000Z/
/RYGO3.1.ER.121202T1911Z.121202T1930Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
413 PM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR
  THE ROGUE RIVER BELOW GOLD RAY.
* THE RIVER CRESTED AT 12.23 FEET AT 1245 PM PST.
* AT  3:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET AND FALLING. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 11.5 FEET...THE ROGUE RIVER IS AT BANKFULL.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARED TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.8 FEET
  ON NOV 21 1998.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 12293 4247 12325 4236 12328 4241 12286

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW
FOR SAFE PASSAGE OR THERE MAY BE UNSEEN DAMAGE TO THE ROADWAY.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

STOCKTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
938 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

.UPDATE...
A NUMBER OF HYDROLOGICAL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED OR UPDATED THIS
MORNING DUE TO EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HEAVY RAIN IS NOW
EAST OF THE CASCADES...WITH THE STEADY PRECIPITATION NOW MOSTLY IN
LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN AND SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR THIS
STORM SYSTEM FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA AND CASCADES
WESTWARD...WITH MANY AMOUNTS EVEN IN THE USUALLY DRIER LOWER
VALLEYS OF 2...WITH AROUND 4 INCHES IN OTHER WETTER LOCATIONS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO DIGEST REPORTS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND BEYOND
OF THIS EXCEPTIONAL EVENT AND THAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS COMBINED.

SOME SNOW ALSO OCCURRED...ALONG WITH RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS. CRATER
LAKE PARK HEADQUARTERS REPORTED 2.02 INCHES OF WATER THIS MORNING
WITH 9.8 INCHES OF SNOW.

PRELIMINARY 4 DAY AMOUNTS FOR MEDFORD AIRPORT OF 4.38 INCHES RANKS
19TH FOR GREATEST 4 DAY TOTAL ON RECORD SINCE 1911. THIS IS ALSO THE
GREATEST 4 DAY RAINFALL AT THIS SITE SINCE NOVEMBER 23RD OF 1998.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SURROUNDING AREAS SUCH AS ROGUE RIVER GOT
IN EXCESS OF 7 INCHES DURING THIS CURRENT 4 DAY PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS FLOOD PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AREAS WITH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE THE
ROGUE AND COQUILLE RIVERS...AS WELL AS DEER AND LITTLE BUTTE
CREEKS. OTHER AREAS SUCH AS BEAR CREEK AT MEDFORD AND THE SOUTH
UMPQUA AT TILLER HAVE REACHED ACTION STAGE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FLOOD SITUATION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL UPDATE AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION...
BASED ON THE 02/06Z TAF CYCLE

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH LOCAL LIFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
CASCADES AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SEVERAL HOURS OF RA/+RA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 7000-8000 FEET EARLY TONIGHT WILL DROP QUICKLY TO
4500-5000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE CAN
BE EXPECTED TOO AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG. VFR THIS EVENING EAST
OF THE CASCADES WILL BECOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.
EXPECT SEVERAL HOUR OF -RA/RA TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THERE AS
WELL. TERRAIN WILL BE COMPLETELY OBSCURED TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING SUNDAY EVENING FROM
THE CASCADES WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012/

DISCUSSION...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT HAS JUST REACHED THE
CASCADES WHILE THE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. THIS WIDE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NOW
FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN THE PAST 12 HOURS... 1
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD WITH
AMOUNTS ALSO EXCEEDING AN INCH IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS STILL FLOODING. LANDSLIDES...STREET
FLOODING AND FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IS POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING. BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE AND
GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS STILL YET TO
COME, THE HIGHEST CONCERN FOR STREAM FLOODING IS IN SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR MCCLOUD.

LARGER SCALE FLOODING IS IMMINENT ON THE COQUILLE RIVER AND SOUTH
FORK OF THE COQUILLE IN COOS COUNTY AND ALSO IS FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER ROGUE RIVER NEAR AGNESS IN CURRY COUNTY TOWARD NOON. THE
CHETCO RIVER IN CURRY COUNTY IS NOT FORECAST TO RISE AS HIGH AS IT
DID DURING ITS RECENT BOUT OF FLOODING. BUT, THERE STILL COULD BE
FLOODING OF OTHER SMALL CREEKS AND RIVERS IN CURRY COUNTY.

THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL
PERSIST EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE...AND ALSO ABOUT SNOW LEVELS THAT WILL FALL FROM AROUND
6500 FEET NOW TO 4500 FEET AT MID-MORNING WITH A VERY QUICK
ACCUMULATION OF AS MUCH AS A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE BETWEEN
NOW AND 10 AM WHILE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DIMINISHES FROM WEST
TO EAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD EXIT MODOC AND
LAKE COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH THE AMOUNT AND FREQUENCY OF
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. BUT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE MORE STRONG STORM LOOMS AHEAD FOR OUR AREA...ARRIVING MONDAY
EVENING, LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE WEATHER OF THIS
WEEKEND, THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET, WINDY, AND RELATIVELY WARM STORM.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALL
BACK TO AROUND 5000 TO 5500 FEET LATER WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH RIDGING BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND ONSHORE FLOW COULD CREATE A FEW OVERRUNNING
LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE COAST. BUT THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS CHANGE IS
THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE AND I HAVE SCALED BACK THE EXTENT OF
EXPECTED COOLING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A COOLING
TREND AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT, MAINLY WEST SIDE
SHOWERS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR ORZ030.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ030-031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ027-028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR ORZ027-028.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-024.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ023-025-026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ084-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR CAZ080.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ081>083.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

BTL/DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
942 AM PST SUN DEC 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW SUNNY VALLEY      42.59N 123.41W
12/02/2012  M1.90 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            9AM TO 9AM.

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W WILLIAMS            42.22N 123.29W
12/02/2012  M1.95 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            9AM TO 9AM.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 NNE POWERS            42.97N 124.01W
12/02/2012  M2.16 INCH       COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5PM TO 6AM.

&&

GLASER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1016 AM PST SUN DEC 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW TALENT             42.21N 122.81W
12/02/2012  M1.46 INCH       JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            11PM TO 9AM.

0530 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WNW WINSTON           43.13N 123.47W
12/02/2012  M2.24 INCH       DOUGLAS            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            530PM TO 530AM.

0645 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE ASHLAND           42.18N 122.69W
12/02/2012  M1.25 INCH       JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1245AM TO 0645AM.

&&

GLASER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1020 AM PST SUN DEC 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNE SELMA             42.35N 123.57W
12/02/2012  M2.25 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            10AM TO 10AM.

&&

GLASER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1023 AM PST SUN DEC 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW ASHLAND           42.20N 122.73W
12/02/2012  M1.98 INCH       JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8PM TO 8AM.

&&

GLASER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1102 AM PST SUN DEC 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE COOS BAY          43.42N 124.20W
12/02/2012  M1.75 INCH       COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.

&&

WRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1114 AM PST SUN DEC 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S MOUNT SHASTA        41.30N 122.32W
12/02/2012  M3.95 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            10AM TO 10AM.

&&

GLASER