River Flood Warning 19, NWS Medford, OR

675 
WGUS86 KMFR 021828
FLSMFR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD, OR
1028 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OREGON...

  DEER CREEK AT ROSEBURG AFFECTING DOUGLAS COUNTY...

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN OREGON...

  ROGUE RIVER NEAR AGNESS AFFECTING COOS...CURRY AND JOSEPHINE 
  COUNTIES...
  COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE AFFECTING COOS COUNTY...

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN OREGON...

  SOUTH FORK COQUILLE RIVER AT MYRTLE POINT AFFECTING COOS COUNTY...

.SOME SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OREGON HAVE CRESTED 
WHILE OTHERS ARE CRESTING LATE THIS MORNING. MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE 
TO RISE THIS MORNING WITH PEAKS EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON TODAY AND MONDAY 

ORC011-030028-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-121207T0201Z/
/COQO3.2.ER.121202T1256Z.121203T1000Z.121206T1401Z.NO/
1028 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE.
* AT  9:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST
* THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT COQUILLE AT 23 FEET THIS EVENING
  THROUGH MONDAY.
* HIGHWAY 42 SOUTH BETWEEN COQUILLE AND BANDON MAY FLOOD IN SOME AREAS.
  THE COUNTY PARK ALONG THE RIVER IN THE TOWN OF COQUILLE IS EXPECTED
  TO BE COMPLETELY FLOODED.  
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...SOME FARM BUILDINGS MAY BE THREATENED AND 
  ROADS COVERED IN LOW AREAS BY RISING WATER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 
  FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE COQUILLE RIVER FLOODPLAIN.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 23 FEET
  ON DECEMBER 30...2008.

&&

LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441

$$

ORC011-015-033-030028-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0018.121203T0313Z-121204T0033Z/
/AGNO3.1.ER.121203T0313Z.121203T0600Z.121203T1233Z.NO/
1028 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROGUE RIVER NEAR AGNESS.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  9:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST AS THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REACH
  JUST OVER 17 FEET.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...RIVER RISES TO THIS STAGE OR ABOVE MAY 
  AFFECT RECREATION INTERESTS ALONG THE ROGUE RIVER AT AND BELOW 
  AGNESS, OREGON.  SUDDEN RIVER RISES OF A FEW FEET MAY ALSO AFFECT 
  HOME AND BUSINESS OWNERS WITH BOAT DOCKS ON THE RIVER.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 15.9 FEET
  ON JAN 19 2012.
* FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT ON THE ROGUE RIVER EARLY THIS 
  EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4274 12390 4246 12442 4237 12442 4261 12385 4274 12375

$$

ORC011-030028-
/O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-121203T0800Z/
/MYPO3.1.ER.000000T0000Z.121202T2000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1028 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH FORK COQUILLE RIVER AT MYRTLE POINT.
* AT  9:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 31.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 33.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE SOUTH FORK OF THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE IS FORECAST TO
  CREST AT ITS 33 FOOT FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON. 
* IMPACT...AT 33.0 FEET...THE SOUTH FORK COQUILLE RIVER IS AT FLOOD 
  STAGE. EXPECT FLOODING OF ROADS WEST OF THE SPRUCE STREET BRIDGE 
  AND SIGNIFICANT PASTURE AND AGRICULTURAL LAND FLOODING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 33.1 FEET
  ON MAR 17 2012.

&&

LAT...LON 4293 12417 4287 12406 4302 12408 4308 12414 4307 12417

$$

ORC019-021858-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-121203T0822Z/
/DEEO3.1.ER.121202T1128Z.121202T1430Z.121202T1601Z.NO/
1028 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE DEER CREEK AT ROSEBURG.
* AT  9:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* DEER CREEK CRESTED AT 10.4 FEET AROUND 615 AM LOCAL TIME THIS MORNING. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 8:01 AM SUNDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 6.6 FEET BY EARLY 
  TOMORROW.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 8.0 FEET 
  ON JAN 19 2012.

&&

LAT...LON 4320 12324 4321 12317 4322 12325 4322 12334 4321 12334


$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW
FOR SAFE PASSAGE OR THERE MAY BE UNSEEN DAMAGE TO THE ROADWAY.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.


&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
520 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT HAS JUST REACHED THE
CASCADES WHILE THE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. THIS WIDE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NOW
FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN THE PAST 12 HOURS... 1
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD WITH
AMOUNTS ALSO EXCEEDING AN INCH IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS STILL FLOODING. LANDSLIDES...STREET
FLOODING AND FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IS POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING. BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE AND
GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS STILL YET TO
COME, THE HIGHEST CONCERN FOR STREAM FLOODING IS IN SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR MCCLOUD.

LARGER SCALE FLOODING IS IMMINENT ON THE COQUILLE RIVER AND SOUTH
FORK OF THE COQUILLE IN COOS COUNTY AND ALSO IS FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER ROGUE RIVER NEAR AGNESS IN CURRY COUNTY TOWARD NOON. THE
CHETCO RIVER IN CURRY COUNTY IS NOT FORECAST TO RISE AS HIGH AS IT
DID DURING ITS RECENT BOUT OF FLOODING. BUT, THERE STILL COULD BE
FLOODING OF OTHER SMALL CREEKS AND RIVERS IN CURRY COUNTY.

THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL
PERSIST EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE...AND ALSO ABOUT SNOW LEVELS THAT WILL FALL FROM AROUND
6500 FEET NOW TO 4500 FEET AT MID-MORNING WITH A VERY QUICK
ACCUMULATION OF AS MUCH AS A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE BETWEEN
NOW AND 10 AM WHILE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DIMINISHES FROM WEST
TO EAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD EXIT MODOC AND
LAKE COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH THE AMOUNT AND FREQUENCY OF
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. BUT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE MORE STRONG STORM LOOMS AHEAD FOR OUR AREA...ARRIVING MONDAY
EVENING, LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE WEATHER OF THIS
WEEKEND, THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET, WINDY, AND RELATIVELY WARM STORM.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALL
BACK TO AROUND 5000 TO 5500 FEET LATER WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH RIDGING BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND ONSHORE FLOW COULD CREATE A FEW OVERRUNNING
LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE COAST. BUT THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS CHANGE IS
THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE AND I HAVE SCALED BACK THE EXTENT OF
EXPECTED COOLING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A COOLING
TREND AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT, MAINLY WEST SIDE
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH LOCAL LIFR WEST OF THE
CASCADES AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF RA/+RA THIS MORNING. FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 7000-7500 FEET WILL DROP QUICKLY TO 4500-5000 FEET AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST MOVES THROUGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED TOO AS WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE STRONG. EXPECT SEVERAL HOUR OF -RA/RA TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT THERE AS WELL. TERRAIN WILL BE COMPLETELY OBSCURED THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON ...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING FROM
THE CASCADES WEST.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR ORZ030.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ030-031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ027-028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR ORZ027-028.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-024.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ023-025-026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ084-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR CAZ080.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ081>083.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1255 AM PST SUN DEC 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE LANGLOIS          42.94N 124.44W
12/02/2012  M2.69 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HOUR ACCUMULATION

&&

BUNKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
500 AM PST SUN DEC 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SSW GOLD BEACH          42.41N 124.42W
12/02/2012  M2.88 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR ACCUMULATION

&&

BUNKER