Gale Watch 45, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
802 PM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...02/00Z NAM IN. 02/00Z GFS IN THROUGH 78HR.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN EJECTING
SHORT WAVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE OF THEM ALL WILL MOVE ONSHORE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.  RAINFALL RATES WILL
PEAK IN THE 10 PM TO 6 AM PST TIME FRAME. SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY
NEAR 6500 FEET WILL CLIMB TO 7000 TO 8000 FEET AT MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS AREAL FLOOD WATCHES...FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE
COQUILLE AND ROGUE RIVERS...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. ADDITIONALLY...THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE IS
UNDER A FLOOD WARNING. A WARNING FOR THE SOUTH FORK OF THE
COQUILLE AT MYRTLE POINT HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THERE WILL BE A
RELATIVELY SHORT BURST...6 TO 12 HOURS...OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...ALMOST ALL OF IT IN LIQUID
FORM. SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL RUN OFF INTO STREAMS
QUICKLY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON THE SMALLER
STREAMS AS WELL AS SOME URBAN FLOODING FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND
AROUND THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL ABATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN
CHANGES TO POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3500
TO 4000 FEET.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFD WITH SOME
EDITING...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE A BIT
LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES
WITH MOST OF IT FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING ANOTHER STRONG STORM REACHING THE OREGON COAST. THE EC
SHOWS A DEEPER LOW DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE OF 130 W AND 40 N AND
TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE GFS IS NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT THE TRACK IS SIMILAR. THE CONCERN
WITH THIS STORM IS THAT IT WILL HAVE A TROPICAL CONNECTION AND
THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE FORECAST WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT.
THIS MEANS WE COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN
COOS... CURRY...JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES WHICH MAY
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND POSSIBLE DEBRIS FLOWS/MUDSLIDES
IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THINGS FINALLY START TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION.
WEAKER SYSTEMS WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AND NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH LOCAL LIFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WEST OF THE CASCADES AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF RA/+RA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 7000-8000 FEET EARLY TONIGHT WILL
DROP QUICKLY TO 4500-5000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO
MODERATE TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED TOO AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
STRONG. VFR THIS EVENING EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BECOME
MVFR/LOCAL IFR AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF
-RA/RA TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THERE AS WELL. TERRAIN WILL BE
COMPLETELY OBSCURED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY ABOVE 4500
        FEET FOR ORZ030.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ027-028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY ABOVE 4500
        FEET FOR ORZ027-028.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-024.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
        FOR ORZ023-025-026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ084-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY ABOVE 4500
        FEET FOR CAZ080.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CAZ080.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
        FOR CAZ081>083.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
        PZZ350-356-370-376.

15/15/15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1007 PM PST SAT DEC 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SW MERLIN             42.46N 123.49W
12/01/2012  M1.00 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE 5AM THIS MORNING.

&&

STOCKTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1255 AM PST SUN DEC 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE LANGLOIS          42.94N 124.44W
12/02/2012  M2.69 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HOUR ACCUMULATION

&&

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