Areal Flood Warning 10, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
520 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT HAS JUST REACHED THE
CASCADES WHILE THE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. THIS WIDE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NOW
FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN THE PAST 12 HOURS... 1
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD WITH
AMOUNTS ALSO EXCEEDING AN INCH IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS STILL FLOODING. LANDSLIDES...STREET
FLOODING AND FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IS POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING. BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE AND
GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS STILL YET TO
COME, THE HIGHEST CONCERN FOR STREAM FLOODING IS IN SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR MCCLOUD.

LARGER SCALE FLOODING IS IMMINENT ON THE COQUILLE RIVER AND SOUTH
FORK OF THE COQUILLE IN COOS COUNTY AND ALSO IS FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER ROGUE RIVER NEAR AGNESS IN CURRY COUNTY TOWARD NOON. THE
CHETCO RIVER IN CURRY COUNTY IS NOT FORECAST TO RISE AS HIGH AS IT
DID DURING ITS RECENT BOUT OF FLOODING. BUT, THERE STILL COULD BE
FLOODING OF OTHER SMALL CREEKS AND RIVERS IN CURRY COUNTY.

THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL
PERSIST EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE...AND ALSO ABOUT SNOW LEVELS THAT WILL FALL FROM AROUND
6500 FEET NOW TO 4500 FEET AT MID-MORNING WITH A VERY QUICK
ACCUMULATION OF AS MUCH AS A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE BETWEEN
NOW AND 10 AM WHILE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DIMINISHES FROM WEST
TO EAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD EXIT MODOC AND
LAKE COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH THE AMOUNT AND FREQUENCY OF
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. BUT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE MORE STRONG STORM LOOMS AHEAD FOR OUR AREA...ARRIVING MONDAY
EVENING, LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE WEATHER OF THIS
WEEKEND, THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET, WINDY, AND RELATIVELY WARM STORM.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALL
BACK TO AROUND 5000 TO 5500 FEET LATER WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH RIDGING BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND ONSHORE FLOW COULD CREATE A FEW OVERRUNNING
LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE COAST. BUT THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS CHANGE IS
THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE AND I HAVE SCALED BACK THE EXTENT OF
EXPECTED COOLING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A COOLING
TREND AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT, MAINLY WEST SIDE
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH LOCAL LIFR WEST OF THE
CASCADES AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF RA/+RA THIS MORNING. FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 7000-7500 FEET WILL DROP QUICKLY TO 4500-5000 FEET AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST MOVES THROUGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED TOO AS WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE STRONG. EXPECT SEVERAL HOUR OF -RA/RA TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT THERE AS WELL. TERRAIN WILL BE COMPLETELY OBSCURED THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON ...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING FROM
THE CASCADES WEST.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR ORZ030.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ030-031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ027-028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR ORZ027-028.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-024.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ023-025-026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ084-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR CAZ080.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ081>083.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

DW

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