Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Jackson, MS

143 
WWUS54 KJAN 120109
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
809 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

MSC089-163-120145-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0345.000000T0000Z-120612T0145Z/
MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
809 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN YAZOO AND MADISON COUNTIES...

AT 809 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WAY TO SATARTIA MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CAMDEN BY 815 PM CDT...
  SHARON...FLORA AND CANTON BY 820 PM CDT...
  FARMHAVEN AND ANNANDALE BY 825 PM CDT...
  GLUCKSTADT BY 830 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 70 MPH CAN SERIOUSLY DAMAGE MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS...
AND CAUSE ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES. NUMEROUS
DOWNED TREES MAY OCCUR...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SERIOUS INJURY AND
PROPERTY DAMAGE.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS 
HUMPHREYS...HOLMES AND YAZOO COUNTIES. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY 
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND 
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3272 9074 3277 9025 3288 8994 3288 8973
      3263 8973 3258 8979 3258 8986 3249 8996
      3248 9045 3256 9045 3251 9055 3255 9059
      3255 9066 3259 9066 3262 9071 3266 9073
      3266 9068 3269 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 332DEG 37KT 3274 9004 3261 9049

$$

CME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
600 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...

.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES AND PRODUCTS FOR INCLUSION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 375 FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG AND NORTH OF WINNSBORO...TO JACKSON...TO MERIDIAN THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WITH A HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE
JUST TO OUR NORTH IS BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION CURRENTLY. PREVIOUS NOTION THAT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THIS COMPLEX WOULD BE EAST OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES/PARISHES STARTING
TO PROVE FALSE AS THE OVERALL MCS HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE DUE
SOUTH. MOST INTENSE PORTIONS OF THE COMPLEX ARE MOVING INTO THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA AND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. THE
FORMER INTENSITY MAX CORRESPONDS TO MOVEMENT INTO BEST INSTABILITY
AXIS WHILE LATTER MAX CORRESPONDS TO BETTER BAROCLINIC AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. COULD BE A ZONE IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE INTENSITY
MAXIMA WHERE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...BUT EVEN IN THESE AREAS
GUSTS UP TO SEVERE CRITERIA ARE STILL HIGHLY POSSIBLE.

ZONES UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
TO SPEED UP TIMING JUST A BIT. PREVIOUS IDEA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING (FROM MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS) WELL SOUTH INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING IS VERY VALID...ALTHOUGH HIGH END GUST POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
DROP OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/

SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY WATCHING RATHER WELL-DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX (WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME REPORTS OF
LARGE HAIL) PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS HAS GENERALLY BEEN ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER WITH SUFFICIENT
STRENGTH TO CONTINUE TO SEVERE RISK AS IT MOVES INTO THE HEART OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STORM RELATIVE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF I-20 EARLY THIS EVENING COULD POSE A
PARTICULARLY STRONG RISK FOR WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATION THAT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY END UP PASSING EAST OF OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES
AND PARISHES AND THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONSENSUS OF PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND THE
EXPECTATION OF SOME SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TURNING OF MOVEMENT VECTORS IT
WOULD BE PREMATURE AT THIS POINT TO DE-EMPHASIZE THE RISK THERE.
SOMEWHAT LESSER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INGREDIENTS SOUTH OF I-20 LATE
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE LESS SIG SVR POTENTIAL IN
THOSE AREAS...BUT AT LEAST SOME DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST. STILL
EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER IN THE CWA BY LATE
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING-OUT A LITTLE BELOW MAV GUIDANCE.

FOR TOMORROW THE SITUATION IS VERY COMPLEX AND HINGES UPON THE
SPECIFIC EVOLUTION OF THINGS TONIGHT. FOR EXAMPLE...MANY HIRES MODEL
RUNS WHICH HAVE MODELED CONVECTION THUS FAR QUITE WELL SO FAR INSIST
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE DISRUPTED SO MUCH BY
TONIGHTS CONVECTION THAT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FORM
TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE LARGER-SCALE EUROPEAN MODEL (WHICH IS
SURPRISINGLY NOT DOING A TERRIBLE JOB WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION)
BREAKS OUT VERY ROBUST STORMS ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG A SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS LOOKING MORE
PLAUSIBLE SINCE THE RESERVOIR OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR
WEST DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ERADICATED BY ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING
LATER AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS WILL COME FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE A DIFFERENT
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL GET GOING TO OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
MAY SUBSEQUENTLY TRY TO PUSH INTO PART OF OUR REGION RELATIVELY
EARLY ON TUESDAY. THAT SAID...THE MOST LIKELY EVOLUTION WILL BE FOR
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO HOLD OFF IN OUR REGION UNTIL LATER ON
TUESDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE HIGH...SHEAR
MODERATE...AND THE RISK FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER PRESENT.
/BB/

LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE GULF COAST. A DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT
WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE ARKLAMISS...BUT MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CUT OFF FROM
THE WESTERLIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATE SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. THIS LOW WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUMMERTIME DIURNAL TSTM
ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR FROM THURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
GETTING MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PCPN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GETTING TO
AROUND 90F WHILE LOWS DROP OFF INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SCT-BKN 3-5KFT WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOST AREAS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVER NRN ZONES BY 6 PM WHEN A SQUALL LINE OF
STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL PROCEED TO THE S ACROSS THE REGION...REACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM AND MOVING INTO SRN ZONES BETWEEN 10 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PRECIP WITH
THE LINES OF STORMS. VSBYS WILL RECOVER TO VFR IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS 3-5K FEET. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST INTENSE OVER NRN ZONES WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS TO 70-80 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED OVER SRN AREAS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 13Z. /03/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  90  72  90 /  79  59  50  24
MERIDIAN      71  89  71  92 /  80  60  42  19
VICKSBURG     72  90  70  90 /  78  55  52  29
HATTIESBURG   73  91  73  92 /  61  48  30  35
NATCHEZ       73  89  71  89 /  66  40  32  46
GREENVILLE    71  90  69  89 / 100  50  32  17
GREENWOOD     70  90  68  89 / 100  47  30  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/03/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
318 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>046-122030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
318 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS FROM 70 TO 80 MPH. RESIDENTS ARE
URGED TO TAKE COVER AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. LARGE QUARTER SIZE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD END
BY 8 OR 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

LAZ015-016-023-025-MSZ047>058-122030-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
318 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM 60 TO 70 MPH. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO TAKE
COVER AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. LARGE QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD END BY 10 OR 11 PM.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

LAZ024-026-MSZ059>066-072>074-122030-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
318 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
732 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S INDIANOLA           33.38N 90.65W
06/11/2012  M51.00 MPH       SUNFLOWER          MS   MESONET

            MEASURED AT BEASLEY LAKE SCAN SITE

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
737 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SE LODI               33.49N 89.45W
06/11/2012                   WEBSTER            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWNED WEST OF TOMNOLEN

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
738 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROOKSVILLE             33.23N 88.58W
06/11/2012                   NOXUBEE            MS   NEWSPAPER

            POWER LINES DOWNED IN THE BROOKSVILLE AREA

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
740 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W STARKVILLE          33.46N 88.91W
06/11/2012  M67.00 MPH       OKTIBBEHA          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0655 PM     COASTAL FLOOD    2 S STARKVILLE          33.43N 88.82W
06/11/2012                   OKTIBBEHA          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWNED SOUTH OF STARKVILLE

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
741 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S STARKVILLE          33.43N 88.82W
06/11/2012                   OKTIBBEHA          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWNED SOUTH OF STARKVILLE

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
745 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW LELAND             33.42N 90.92W
06/11/2012                   WASHINGTON         MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWNED ACROSS A ROAD IN STONEVILLE

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NNW KOSCIUSKO         33.17N 89.64W
06/11/2012                   ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWNED ACROSS HIGHWAY 35 NORTH OF KOSCIUSKO

&&

DL