Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT). THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE HOW LONG THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVER THE DELTA REGION WILL LAST PRIOR TO THE FRONT COMING INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY. SPC HAS PUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE MS RIVER UNTIL 11 AM. ALSO FOR LATER TODAY THE DEGREE OF
RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS IN RELATION TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
COME INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND.
THIS FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
CROSSING THE REGION. A LONG LIVED MCS CROSSED THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WHICH RESULTED IN A MESO HIGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE DELTA REGION
WITH SOME FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

FOR TODAY STARTING EARLY THIS MORNING THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOWS AN MCS
MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THIS
MORNING. AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THE DAY THE HIRES MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE REGION AFTER
THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. THE QUESTION DURING THE DAY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND. LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE
EARLY TODAY IN THE 8-9C RANGE...THEN WILL DECREASE TO 5.5 TO 7.0
RANGE DURING THE DAY. IF THE AIRMASS DOES GET SOLAR RECOVERY WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. SO WITH CURRENT
ACTIVITY IN PLACE AM INCLINE TO PUT A MENTION OF IT IN THE HWO
FOR THIS MORNING...EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. ON POPS MADE A SLIGHT HIGHER ADJUSTMENT TO A
BLEND OF MAV/GMOS POPS. OUR CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR
TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND. ITS POSSIBLE THAT IF WE DO
HAVE SOME RECOVERY WE MAY GET A FEW STRONG STORMS GOING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.
WENT CLOSE TO GMOS GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL END THE
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WENT CLOSE TO MAV
GUIDANCE. LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE LOWER TO UPPER 60S.
WENT CLOSE TO GMOS GUIDANCE. ON POPS MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO GMOS
GUIDANCE./17/

&&

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...HOT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL HEADLINE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES OVERALL AT BAY.  AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY MY SOUTHERN ZONES EACH AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STILL STALLED...BUT ERODING...SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD YIELD JUST ENOUGH
FORCING EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO ACT AS A WEAK FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
A FEW STORMS THERE BEFORE EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT.  CURRENTLY THE
NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY
AS A BETTER COMBINATION OF GULF MOISTURE AND FLOW EXISTS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 09Z MVFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT A COMPLEX
OF STORMS TO CROSS INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
FOR THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS/VSBYS TO DETERIORATE
QUICKLY. THE COMPLEX SHOULD CROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO NOON. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON AIRMASS RECOVERY A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION. IT MAY TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED STORMS WITH SOME IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 60 MPH. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY BY SUNSET./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  69  89  66 /  59  29  20  10
MERIDIAN      89  68  91  63 /  56  29  17  10
VICKSBURG     90  69  89  64 /  67  28  23  11
HATTIESBURG   89  71  92  69 /  59  23  25  12
NATCHEZ       88  69  88  68 /  63  28  33  12
GREENVILLE    89  68  88  66 /  60  24  11  10
GREENWOOD     88  67  89  63 /  55  23   9  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

/17/19/

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MSZ042-043-121005-
MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
408 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND 40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE 55 FROM 4 MILES NORTH
OF VAUGHAN TO MADISON AT 405 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.  THIS
WILL CAUSE THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME EAST CENTRAL YAZOO AND CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3290 9003 3261 9001 3245 9003 3243 9007
      3240 9007 3240 9009 3240 9012 3245 9012
      3291 9005 3291 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 357DEG 12KT 3286 9004 3244 9010

19

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