Severe Thunderstorm Warning 344, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
600 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...

.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES AND PRODUCTS FOR INCLUSION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 375 FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG AND NORTH OF WINNSBORO...TO JACKSON...TO MERIDIAN THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WITH A HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE
JUST TO OUR NORTH IS BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION CURRENTLY. PREVIOUS NOTION THAT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THIS COMPLEX WOULD BE EAST OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES/PARISHES STARTING
TO PROVE FALSE AS THE OVERALL MCS HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE DUE
SOUTH. MOST INTENSE PORTIONS OF THE COMPLEX ARE MOVING INTO THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA AND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. THE
FORMER INTENSITY MAX CORRESPONDS TO MOVEMENT INTO BEST INSTABILITY
AXIS WHILE LATTER MAX CORRESPONDS TO BETTER BAROCLINIC AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. COULD BE A ZONE IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE INTENSITY
MAXIMA WHERE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...BUT EVEN IN THESE AREAS
GUSTS UP TO SEVERE CRITERIA ARE STILL HIGHLY POSSIBLE.

ZONES UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
TO SPEED UP TIMING JUST A BIT. PREVIOUS IDEA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTING (FROM MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS) WELL SOUTH INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING IS VERY VALID...ALTHOUGH HIGH END GUST POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
DROP OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/

SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY WATCHING RATHER WELL-DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX (WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME REPORTS OF
LARGE HAIL) PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS HAS GENERALLY BEEN ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER WITH SUFFICIENT
STRENGTH TO CONTINUE TO SEVERE RISK AS IT MOVES INTO THE HEART OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STORM RELATIVE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF I-20 EARLY THIS EVENING COULD POSE A
PARTICULARLY STRONG RISK FOR WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATION THAT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY END UP PASSING EAST OF OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES
AND PARISHES AND THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONSENSUS OF PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND THE
EXPECTATION OF SOME SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TURNING OF MOVEMENT VECTORS IT
WOULD BE PREMATURE AT THIS POINT TO DE-EMPHASIZE THE RISK THERE.
SOMEWHAT LESSER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INGREDIENTS SOUTH OF I-20 LATE
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE LESS SIG SVR POTENTIAL IN
THOSE AREAS...BUT AT LEAST SOME DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST. STILL
EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER IN THE CWA BY LATE
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING-OUT A LITTLE BELOW MAV GUIDANCE.

FOR TOMORROW THE SITUATION IS VERY COMPLEX AND HINGES UPON THE
SPECIFIC EVOLUTION OF THINGS TONIGHT. FOR EXAMPLE...MANY HIRES MODEL
RUNS WHICH HAVE MODELED CONVECTION THUS FAR QUITE WELL SO FAR INSIST
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE DISRUPTED SO MUCH BY
TONIGHTS CONVECTION THAT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FORM
TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE LARGER-SCALE EUROPEAN MODEL (WHICH IS
SURPRISINGLY NOT DOING A TERRIBLE JOB WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION)
BREAKS OUT VERY ROBUST STORMS ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG A SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS LOOKING MORE
PLAUSIBLE SINCE THE RESERVOIR OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR
WEST DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ERADICATED BY ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING
LATER AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS WILL COME FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE A DIFFERENT
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL GET GOING TO OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
MAY SUBSEQUENTLY TRY TO PUSH INTO PART OF OUR REGION RELATIVELY
EARLY ON TUESDAY. THAT SAID...THE MOST LIKELY EVOLUTION WILL BE FOR
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO HOLD OFF IN OUR REGION UNTIL LATER ON
TUESDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE HIGH...SHEAR
MODERATE...AND THE RISK FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER PRESENT.
/BB/

LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE GULF COAST. A DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT
WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE ARKLAMISS...BUT MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CUT OFF FROM
THE WESTERLIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATE SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. THIS LOW WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUMMERTIME DIURNAL TSTM
ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR FROM THURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
GETTING MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PCPN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GETTING TO
AROUND 90F WHILE LOWS DROP OFF INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SCT-BKN 3-5KFT WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOST AREAS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVER NRN ZONES BY 6 PM WHEN A SQUALL LINE OF
STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL PROCEED TO THE S ACROSS THE REGION...REACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM AND MOVING INTO SRN ZONES BETWEEN 10 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PRECIP WITH
THE LINES OF STORMS. VSBYS WILL RECOVER TO VFR IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS 3-5K FEET. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST INTENSE OVER NRN ZONES WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS TO 70-80 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED OVER SRN AREAS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 13Z. /03/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  90  72  90 /  79  59  50  24
MERIDIAN      71  89  71  92 /  80  60  42  19
VICKSBURG     72  90  70  90 /  78  55  52  29
HATTIESBURG   73  91  73  92 /  61  48  30  35
NATCHEZ       73  89  71  89 /  66  40  32  46
GREENVILLE    71  90  69  89 / 100  50  32  17
GREENWOOD     70  90  68  89 / 100  47  30  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/03/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
318 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>046-122030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
318 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS FROM 70 TO 80 MPH. RESIDENTS ARE
URGED TO TAKE COVER AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. LARGE QUARTER SIZE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD END
BY 8 OR 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

LAZ015-016-023-025-MSZ047>058-122030-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
318 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM 60 TO 70 MPH. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO TAKE
COVER AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. LARGE QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD END BY 10 OR 11 PM.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

LAZ024-026-MSZ059>066-072>074-122030-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
318 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
658 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE CALEDONIA          33.72N 88.27W
06/11/2012                   LOWNDES            MS   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWNED IN THE FLINT HILL COMMUNITY

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
700 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW BENT OAK           33.45N 88.57W
06/11/2012  M62.00 MPH       LOWNDES            MS   AWOS

            REPORTED AT GOLDEN TRIANGLE AIRPORT

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
710 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCHLATER                33.64N 90.35W
06/11/2012                   LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON POWERLINE

0656 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GRENADA                 33.78N 89.81W
06/11/2012                   GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING IN THE CITY OF GRENADA

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
715 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 WSW MALMAISON         33.50N 90.08W
06/11/2012  M55.00 MPH       CARROLL            MS   ASOS

            MEASURED AT GREENWOOD AIRPORT

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
718 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE CLEVELAND         33.78N 90.71W
06/11/2012                   BOLIVAR            MS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            AN EIGHTEEN WHEELER WAS BLOWN OVER ALONG US HIGHWAY 61

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NE CLEVELAND            33.75N 90.72W
06/11/2012                   BOLIVAR            MS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HIGH WINDS SHATTERED GLASS AT A BUSINESS AT HIGHWAY 8 AND
            BAYOU AVE

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
720 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONEY                   33.65N 90.21W
06/11/2012                   LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AROUND COUNTY...INCLUDING IN MONEY AND
            SCHLATER

0658 PM     HAIL             ITTA BENA               33.50N 90.32W
06/11/2012  E1.00 INCH       LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DL