Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY. GENERALLY DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 1430 EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...STALLING
JUST SOUGHT OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG CONVECTION...HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES ARE
RATHER WEAK. SOUNDING INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO AID IN
DOWNDRAFT FORMATION...AND DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR MID SUMMER NORMALS AS CLOUD COVER LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EARLY SATURDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY CLOSE BY...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. A
WEAK UPPER IMPULSE ARRIVING IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE REMAINING SHALLOW MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PIEDMONT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS
HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY WHIT THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...WILL PLAN ON LINGERING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POP THRU SATURDAY NIGHT AS STALLED WEAK SFC BNDRY REMAINS AS POSSIBLE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR DEEP CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...A FAIR BUT MUGGY
NIGHT IS ON TAP. WITHIN THE BROAD AND SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIP SEWD INTO THE CWFA.
A ROUND OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION STILL LOOKS PROBABLE
AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S
READINGS. WITH L/WV TROUGH AXIS DIGGING INTO THE NE CONUS ON
MONDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS FALLS ARE PROGGED ALL THE WAY DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. ELONGATED FRONT ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
JUMP TO LEE TROUGH POSITION LATER IN THE DAY AND BROADLY CONVERGENT
LLVLS IS EXPECTED TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY FIRED
TSTMS ONCE AGAIN. MAXES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND A FEW
CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE FEATURES AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS RIDGING NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH NO DISCERNABLE SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH...
WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO MUCH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND
WOULD ALSO EFFECTIVELY INSULATE THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM ANY
INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THE ONLY WILDCARD WOULD BE SOME KIND
OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND DROP DOWN IN THE NNW FLOW DURING MIDWEEK...BUT THAT IS TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION IN THE FCST. SO...THE FCST WILL BE KEPT DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT ON FRIDAY...SO A
RETURN TO MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS ALLOWED WITH A CHANCE
POP IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT CHANGE TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPS ALSO BEGIN AN UPWARD TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
SOMETHING CLOSER TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...
AND AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ONLY DRY THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED IN THE TAF
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. ANY VSBY RESTRICTION IN PRECIPITAITON
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MVFR. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TODAY AND TONIGHT
TO NE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT SLOWING
SOUTH OF THE AREA...LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THEM WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO CARRY IN
THE TAF.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAD ALREADY STARTED TO FIRE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD IN MOUNTAINS. KAVL HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS...AND A TEMPO FOR MVFR WILL BE CARRIED THERE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HEATING ABATES AND
THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS THE
FRONT SLOWS. MORE GUIDANCE MEMBER ARE LINING UP FOR DAYBREAK FOG AT
KAVL...WHERE MVFR VSBY WILL BE CARRIED. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO
NE BY DAWN SATURDAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL
DOWNVALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY
TUESDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-231830-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
231 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL IN AFFECTED LOCATIONS. ISOLATED FLOODING COULD RESULT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-231830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
231 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N ASHEVILLE           35.62N 82.55W
06/22/2012                   BUNCOMBE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE POWER LINES DOWN AT WEAVERVILLE ROAD.

&&

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ062-063-222015-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
334 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 329 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF LAKE GLENVILLE...OR 9 MILES EAST
OF FRANKLIN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  HIGHLANDS...
  LAKE GLENVILLE...
  CASHIERS...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3523 8329 3524 8323 3523 8320 3525 8314
      3523 8294 3519 8299 3517 8298 3516 8300
      3514 8298 3506 8305 3503 8301 3502 8302
      3500 8312 3509 8335

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ510-SCZ003-007-222030-
EASTERN POLK-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
339 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...
NORTHERN SPARTANBURG AND SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM
EDT...

AT 337 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FINGERVILLE TO 3 MILES WEST OF GOWENSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE BOWEN...
  CHESNEE...
  INMAN...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3499 8222 3506 8222 3504 8230 3517 8247
      3516 8245 3520 8241 3521 8238 3518 8237
      3520 8226 3522 8226 3526 8197 3519 8197
      3518 8187 3504 8181 3496 8219

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
353 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             2 ENE BOGER CITY        35.49N 81.17W
06/22/2012  E0.88 INCH       LINCOLN            NC   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 10 MINUTES.

&&

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
353 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ059-063-222045-
NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
353 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM EDT...

AT 350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF WEBSTER...OR 4 MILES EAST OF
SYLVA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BALSAM...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3547 8322 3545 8308 3543 8308 3541 8304
      3540 8304 3536 8299 3532 8297 3530 8293
      3527 8292 3523 8293 3519 8299 3530 8329

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
412 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ057-072-222100-
CABARRUS-ROWAN-
412 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CABARRUS AND SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 410 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CRAVEN...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SALISBURY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. OTHER STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CABARRUS COUNTY.

PEOPLE IN CABARRUS AND SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATION...

HIGH ROCK LAKE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3521 8048 3519 8051 3527 8066
      3534 8069 3566 8042 3569 8033 3567 8030
      3564 8029 3564 8026 3558 8020 3550 8018

MOORE