Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

135 
WWUS52 KGSP 222255
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
655 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCC121-199-222345-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0229.000000T0000Z-120622T2345Z/
MITCHELL NC-YANCEY NC-
655 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YANCEY AND
SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 654 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
RAMSEYTOWN...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BURNSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  RAMSEYTOWN.
  BURNSVILLE.
  MICAVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 8205 3595 8204 3591 8198 3589 8198
      3587 8200 3588 8203 3585 8205 3585 8209
      3579 8217 3577 8217 3593 8250 3595 8248
      3598 8251 3610 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 300DEG 12KT 3599 8239

$$

RWH

155 
WWUS52 KGSP 222325
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
725 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCC121-199-222336-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0229.000000T0000Z-120622T2345Z/
MITCHELL NC-YANCEY NC-
725 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR YANCEY AND SOUTHERN MITCHELL
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3600 8205 3595 8204 3591 8198 3589 8198
      3587 8200 3588 8203 3585 8205 3585 8209
      3579 8217 3577 8217 3593 8250 3595 8248
      3598 8251 3610 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 300DEG 12KT 3594 8228

$$

RWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY. GENERALLY DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...OVERALL TRENDS ON CONVECTION IS DOWNWARD BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ATTM. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MINIMUM OF
SBCAPE ACRS THE PIEDMONT OF NE GA AND THE UPSTATE...WITH DCAPE OF
1200-1400 J/KG. THIS SEEMS TO BE LIMITING NEW CONVECTION ALONG A
PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN ON RADAR AS IT SAGS SWD OUT OF NC.
ALL THE HI RES MODELS I LOOKED AT SHOW ONLY A FEW ISOLD CELLS
DEVELOPING FROM HERE ON OUT. SO POPS WERE TWEAKED WITH THESE THINGS
IN MIND. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...FREEZING LEVEL IS NEAR 14000 FT
OR SO...AND THERE IS ALMOST NO SHEAR. SO PULSE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MODE WITH A NEED FOR VERY TALL CORES TO GET SEVERE HAIL TO
THE GROUND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 1430 EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...STALLING
JUST SOUGHT OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG CONVECTION...HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES ARE
RATHER WEAK. SOUNDING INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO AID IN
DOWNDRAFT FORMATION...AND DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR MID SUMMER NORMALS AS CLOUD COVER LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EARLY SATURDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY CLOSE BY...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. A
WEAK UPPER IMPULSE ARRIVING IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE REMAINING SHALLOW MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PIEDMONT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS
HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY WHIT THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...WILL PLAN ON LINGERING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POP THRU SATURDAY NIGHT AS STALLED WEAK SFC BNDRY REMAINS AS POSSIBLE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR DEEP CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...A FAIR BUT MUGGY
NIGHT IS ON TAP. WITHIN THE BROAD AND SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIP SEWD INTO THE CWFA.
A ROUND OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION STILL LOOKS PROBABLE
AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S
READINGS. WITH L/WV TROUGH AXIS DIGGING INTO THE NE CONUS ON
MONDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS FALLS ARE PROGGED ALL THE WAY DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. ELONGATED FRONT ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
JUMP TO LEE TROUGH POSITION LATER IN THE DAY AND BROADLY CONVERGENT
LLVLS IS EXPECTED TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY FIRED
TSTMS ONCE AGAIN. MAXES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND A FEW
CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE FEATURES AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS RIDGING NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH NO DISCERNABLE SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH...
WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO MUCH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND
WOULD ALSO EFFECTIVELY INSULATE THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM ANY
INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THE ONLY WILDCARD WOULD BE SOME KIND
OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND DROP DOWN IN THE NNW FLOW DURING MIDWEEK...BUT THAT IS TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION IN THE FCST. SO...THE FCST WILL BE KEPT DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT ON FRIDAY...SO A
RETURN TO MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS ALLOWED WITH A CHANCE
POP IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT CHANGE TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPS ALSO BEGIN AN UPWARD TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
SOMETHING CLOSER TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...
AND AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ONLY DRY THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED IN THE TAF
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. ANY VSBY RESTRICTION IN PRECIPITAITON
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MVFR. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TODAY AND TONIGHT
TO NE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT SLOWING
SOUTH OF THE AREA...LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THEM WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO CARRY IN
THE TAF.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAD ALREADY STARTED TO FIRE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD IN MOUNTAINS. KAVL HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS...AND A TEMPO FOR MVFR WILL BE CARRIED THERE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HEATING ABATES AND
THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS THE
FRONT SLOWS. MORE GUIDANCE MEMBER ARE LINING UP FOR DAYBREAK FOG AT
KAVL...WHERE MVFR VSBY WILL BE CARRIED. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO
NE BY DAWN SATURDAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL
DOWNVALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY
TUESDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-231830-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
231 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL IN AFFECTED LOCATIONS. ISOLATED FLOODING COULD RESULT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-231830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
231 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW ASHEVILLE          35.58N 82.56W
06/22/2012                   BUNCOMBE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN ON PEARSON BRIDGE
            ROAD.

&&

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
522 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ048-222200-
MADISON-
522 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MADISON COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM
EDT...

AT 518 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF CEDAR CREEK...OR 15 MILES SOUTH
OF GREENEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  HOT SPRINGS...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3586 8246 3569 8283 3570 8285 3568 8288
      3570 8291 3574 8292 3576 8296 3578 8295
      3579 8297 3584 8292 3594 8290 3596 8287
      3593 8281 3601 8277

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

GAZ010-017-222230-
HABERSHAM-RABUN-
550 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HABERSHAM AND WESTERN
RABUN COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 547 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF MACEDONIA...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HIAWASSEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE BURTON...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3482 8366 3485 8367 3489 8366 3492 8360
      3494 8360 3495 8356 3497 8355 3488 8332
      3463 8353 3470 8365 3476 8363 3479 8368
      3481 8368

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ048-052-053-222245-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-MADISON-
607 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HAYWOOD...
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND WESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM
EDT...

AT 603 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF LUCK...OR 15 MILES WEST OF
MARSHALL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3569 8259 3549 8276 3571 8309 3579 8302
      3578 8299 3581 8296 3584 8293

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
623 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ049-222315-
YANCEY-
623 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT YANCEY COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM
EDT...

AT 620 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAMSEYTOWN...OR 8 MILES
SOUTH OF ERWIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  RAMSEYTOWN...
  BURNSVILLE...
  MICAVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3603 8234 3603 8231 3604 8230 3599 8225
      3601 8225 3601 8219 3595 8219 3591 8215
      3578 8226 3594 8249 3595 8248 3598 8251
      3608 8242 3608 8235

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
627 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ051-052-222315-
HAYWOOD-SWAIN-
627 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HAYWOOD AND NORTHEASTERN
SWAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 623 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SMOKEMONT...OR 16 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MAGGIE VALLEY...
  LAKE JUNALUSKA...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3566 8331 3572 8325 3559 8283 3537 8296
      3541 8304 3546 8310 3546 8313 3549 8314
      3552 8319 3552 8324 3551 8326 3556 8336

RWH