Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

338 
WWUS52 KGSP 221631
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1231 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCC011-023-027-221700-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-120622T1700Z/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
1231 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BURKE...NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL
100 PM EDT...

AT 1227 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GLOBE...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF BLOWING ROCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF 
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL BETWEEN UPTON AND PATTERSON.

OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST 
OF EDGEMONT TO GLOBE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLOODING OF DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 8194 3605 8184 3611 8177 3612 8166
      3612 8154 3610 8151 3610 8147 3594 8168
      3588 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1630Z 304DEG 6KT 3605 8164

$$

MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1001 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...BUT STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY...BUT
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 EDT...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGHS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FORM HUDSON BAY TO THE TN VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS TROUGH WAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE
ANOTHER WAS UPSTREAM IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACED A COLD FRONT IN THE TN VALLEY...AND A LEE TROUGH ALONG
INTERSTATE 85. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
SW VA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TODAY...AND
A S THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD...SUPPORTING HIGH END POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK...DRY AIR IS AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE
COOLING...SUPPORTING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN A WARM PREFRONTAL AIR MASS.

AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...ALTHOUGH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING COVERAGE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...A 500 MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT EWD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SAT...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE SE FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK E TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT MTN CONVECTION SAT AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
ADVECT OUT INTO THE FOOTHILLS OR PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT EVENING.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOSE EWD FROM THE PLAINS. A
VORTICITY LOBE EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT MAY CROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AT THAT TIME...BUT WITH PROBABLY JUST
ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SRLY THROUGH SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS REBOUNDING
SLIGHTLY. ISOLD AFTN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE LATE SUN AFTN/EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY IN CONTINUED DEEP LAYER NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY DEEP WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL ZONE...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCT TSTM
COVERAGE WITH FROPA MON AFTN/EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN NC.

NW FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST TUE THROUGH THU AS A STRONG RIDGE HOLDS ON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND LOW PRES CUTS OFF OVER SRN QUEBEC.
IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KGSP/KGMU/KAND...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE PIEDMONT. THESE FEATURES SHOULD PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND PROB30
WILL BE RETAINED AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...DUE TO POLICY...PROB30
CANNOT BE INCLUDED BEFORE 21Z...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TS
ANYTIME AFTER 17Z OR SO. I JUST DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO ATTM. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING.
FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

AT KAVL...MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY IF IT DOES INDEED DEVELOP. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY. A TEMPO HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR TSRA
BETWEEN 17 AND 21Z. PROB30 GROUPS WILL BE CARRIED FROM 21Z THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IF HEAVY
RAINFALL DEVELOPS AT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY
TUESDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JAT/JDL
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-231000-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
346 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL IN AFFECTED LOCATIONS. ISOLATED FLOODING COULD RESULT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-231000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
346 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF BUT DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1150 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ033-501-221630-
AVERY-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
1150 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...

AT 1149 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLOWING ROCK. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3610 8151 3610 8148 3609 8145 3595 8166
      3607 8184 3612 8180 3613 8173 3613 8155

MOORE