Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
102 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY. GENERALLY DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1700 UTC UPDATE...DEW POINTS WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST ADJMAV
GUIDANCE...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. SKY COVER WAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND POPS FROM RADAR TRENDS...WITH BOTH INCREASED IN THE
NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS.

AT 1000 EDT...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGHS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FORM HUDSON BAY TO THE TN VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS TROUGH WAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE
ANOTHER WAS UPSTREAM IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACED A COLD FRONT IN THE TN VALLEY...AND A LEE TROUGH ALONG
INTERSTATE 85. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
SW VA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TODAY...AND
A S THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD...SUPPORTING HIGH END POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK...DRY AIR IS AVAILABLE ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE
COOLING...SUPPORTING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN A WARM PREFRONTAL AIR MASS.

AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...ALTHOUGH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING COVERAGE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...A 500 MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT EWD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SAT...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE SE FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK E TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT MTN CONVECTION SAT AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
ADVECT OUT INTO THE FOOTHILLS OR PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT EVENING.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOSE EWD FROM THE PLAINS. A
VORTICITY LOBE EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT MAY CROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AT THAT TIME...BUT WITH PROBABLY JUST
ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SRLY THROUGH SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS REBOUNDING
SLIGHTLY. ISOLD AFTN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE LATE SUN AFTN/EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE FEATURES AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS RIDGING NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH NO DISCERNABLE SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH...
WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO MUCH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND
WOULD ALSO EFFECTIVELY INSULATE THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM ANY
INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THE ONLY WILDCARD WOULD BE SOME KIND
OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND DROP DOWN IN THE NNW FLOW DURING MIDWEEK...BUT THAT IS TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION IN THE FCST. SO...THE FCST WILL BE KEPT DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT ON FRIDAY...SO A
RETURN TO MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS ALLOWED WITH A CHANCE
POP IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT CHANGE TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPS ALSO BEGIN AN UPWARD TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
SOMETHING CLOSER TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...
AND AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. CONVECTION WILL NOT BE CARRIED IN THE TAF
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. ANY RESTRICTION WOLD MOST LIKELY BE
MVFR. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TODAY AND TONIGHT TO NE BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT SLOWING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO CARRY IN THE TAF.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAD ALREADY STARTED TO FIRE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD IN MOUNTAINS. KAVL HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS...AND A TEMPO FOR MVFR WILL BE CARRIED THERE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HEATING ABATES AND
THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS THE
FRONT SLOWS. MORE GUIDANCE MEMBER ARE LINING UP FOR DAYBREAK FOG AT
KAVL...WHERE MVFR VSBY WILL BE CARRIED. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO
NE BY DAWN SATURDAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL
DOWNVALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY
TUESDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JAT/JDL
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-231000-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
346 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL IN AFFECTED LOCATIONS. ISOLATED FLOODING COULD RESULT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-231000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
346 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF BUT DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
104 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ053-505-221745-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
104 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BUNCOMBE AND
SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 103 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTREAT...OR 14 MILES WEST
OF MARION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

BLACK MOUNTAIN AND OLD FORT...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3563 8205 3563 8206 3560 8203 3555 8206
      3551 8215 3553 8217 3552 8222 3549 8223
      3546 8226 3551 8235 3565 8241 3574 8216

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1152 AM     HAIL             4 E GRANDFATHER MOUNTAI 36.11N 81.78W
06/22/2012  E1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   PUBLIC

            ALONG US 221 JUST SOUTH OF THE WATAUGA COUNTY LINE

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
140 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     HAIL             2 NE LENOIR             35.92N 81.50W
06/22/2012  E1.25 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT THE INTERSECTION OF WILKESBORO BLVD AND TAYLORSVILLE
            RD

&&

TW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
140 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ048-052-053-221830-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-MADISON-
140 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HAYWOOD...SOUTHWESTERN
MADISON AND WESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 139 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF LUCK...OR 15 MILES WEST OF
MARSHALL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN HAYWOOD...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND WESTERN
BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3572 8264 3553 8297 3570 8318 3579 8302
      3578 8299 3583 8294 3586 8289

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ035-056-502-504-221830-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER...SOUTHEASTERN
BURKE...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND WESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES THROUGH
230 PM EDT...

AT 150 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELLENDALE...OR 5 MILES WEST OF
TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALDWELL COUNTY AND EASTERN BURKE
COUNTY.

PEOPLE IN ALEXANDER...SOUTHEASTERN BURKE...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND
WESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

ELLENDALE AND TAYLORSVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3597 8100 3583 8106 3557 8142 3557 8168
      3558 8170 3576 8170 3585 8149 3601 8134
      3600 8132 3602 8129 3604 8111 3603 8108
      3605 8103

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             2 NE LENOIR             35.93N 81.51W
06/22/2012  E1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

TW