Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY. GENERALLY DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 1430 EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...STALLING
JUST SOUGHT OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG CONVECTION...HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES ARE
RATHER WEAK. SOUNDING INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO AID IN
DOWNDRAFT FORMATION...AND DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR MID SUMMER NORMALS AS CLOUD COVER LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EARLY SATURDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY CLOSE BY...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. A
WEAK UPPER IMPULSE ARRIVING IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE REMAINING SHALLOW MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PIEDMONT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS
HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY WHIT THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...WILL PLAN ON LINGERING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POP THRU SATURDAY NIGHT AS STALLED WEAK SFC BNDRY REMAINS AS POSSIBLE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR DEEP CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...A FAIR BUT MUGGY
NIGHT IS ON TAP. WITHIN THE BROAD AND SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIP SEWD INTO THE CWFA.
A ROUND OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION STILL LOOKS PROBABLE
AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S
READINGS. WITH L/WV TROUGH AXIS DIGGING INTO THE NE CONUS ON
MONDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS FALLS ARE PROGGED ALL THE WAY DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. ELONGATED FRONT ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
JUMP TO LEE TROUGH POSITION LATER IN THE DAY AND BROADLY CONVERGENT
LLVLS IS EXPECTED TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY FIRED
TSTMS ONCE AGAIN. MAXES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND A FEW
CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE FEATURES AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS RIDGING NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH NO DISCERNABLE SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH...
WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO MUCH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND
WOULD ALSO EFFECTIVELY INSULATE THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM ANY
INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THE ONLY WILDCARD WOULD BE SOME KIND
OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND DROP DOWN IN THE NNW FLOW DURING MIDWEEK...BUT THAT IS TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION IN THE FCST. SO...THE FCST WILL BE KEPT DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT ON FRIDAY...SO A
RETURN TO MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS ALLOWED WITH A CHANCE
POP IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT CHANGE TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPS ALSO BEGIN AN UPWARD TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
SOMETHING CLOSER TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...
AND AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ONLY DRY THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED IN THE TAF
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. ANY VSBY RESTRICTION IN PRECIPITAITON
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MVFR. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TODAY AND TONIGHT
TO NE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT SLOWING
SOUTH OF THE AREA...LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THEM WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO CARRY IN
THE TAF.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAD ALREADY STARTED TO FIRE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD IN MOUNTAINS. KAVL HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS...AND A TEMPO FOR MVFR WILL BE CARRIED THERE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HEATING ABATES AND
THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS THE
FRONT SLOWS. MORE GUIDANCE MEMBER ARE LINING UP FOR DAYBREAK FOG AT
KAVL...WHERE MVFR VSBY WILL BE CARRIED. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO
NE BY DAWN SATURDAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL
DOWNVALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY
TUESDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-231830-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
231 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL IN AFFECTED LOCATIONS. ISOLATED FLOODING COULD RESULT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-231830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
231 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             2 NE LENOIR             35.93N 81.51W
06/22/2012  E1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

TW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ065-507>510-221915-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-HENDERSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD
MOUNTAINS-
223 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...POLK
AND WESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 221 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF EDNEYVILLE...OR 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...POLK AND WESTERN RUTHERFORD
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

EDNEYVILLE...CHIMNEY ROCK...BAT CAVE AND LAKE ADGER...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3547 8195 3528 8212 3518 8232 3538 8243
      3549 8232 3546 8226 3549 8223 3551 8223
      3552 8223

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ063-064-221915-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
232 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN JACKSON AND TRANSYLVANIA
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BALSAM GROVE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF BREVARD...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN JACKSON AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATION...

ROSMAN...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3513 8315 3526 8307 3529 8292 3527 8261
      3519 8260 3515 8258 3514 8258 3513 8265
      3512 8267 3513 8268 3511 8269 3505 8291

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
238 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 PM     HAIL             5 SE BLACK MOUNTAIN     35.57N 82.27W
06/22/2012  E1.00 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            JUST OFF HWY 9 SOUTH OF BLACK MOUNTAIN

&&

TW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

NCZ036-056-069-071-221930-
CATAWBA-IREDELL-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHERN
MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA AND SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL COUNTIES
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE NORMAN...OR 17 MILES EAST OF
LINCOLNTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHERN MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN
CATAWBA AND SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...

LAKE NORMAN...TERRELL...CORNELIUS...DAVIDSON AND MOORESVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BOATERS ON LAKE NORMAN SHOULD HEAD TO SHORE NOW!!!

FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3550 8075 3550 8079 3545 8077 3541 8104
      3562 8110 3569 8077 3551 8073

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

GAZ010-222015-
RABUN-
325 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RABUN COUNTY THROUGH 415
PM EDT...

AT 321 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLAYTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CLAYTON...
  LAKEMONT...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3500 8344 3490 8319 3488 8320 3488 8323
      3485 8325 3484 8327 3481 8327 3483 8329
      3482 8331 3481 8330 3479 8333 3475 8332
      3472 8335 3485 8356

RWH