Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW
HOURS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE AS
GREAT AS LAST NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO
BE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST PORTIONS...WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

WE WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH PERIPHERY OF THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED COLD/STATIONARY FRONT...WOULD BRING TEMPS
DOWN TO NORMAL LEVELS...AND COULD BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF
SIGNIFICANT (AND NEEDED) RAINFALL. THE ONLY THING KEEPING ME FROM
GOING WITH LIKELY POPS AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK IS THAT THE LONG
RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHEN THE AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT) MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECTING ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOT AS MUCH SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCALES ARE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME BUT THINKING THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPMENT WILL START OUT W/S AND WORK ITS WAY NE TO OTHER TAF
AREAS WITH OUTFLOWS/REDEVELOPMENT/ETC DUE TO SOME LINGERING
BOUNDARIES AND HEATING. SO WILL KEEP VCTS BUT STAIR STEP BEGIN TIMES
A TAD FROM S/W TO N/E.

08/MNK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  94  73  94  72 /  10  20  10  10  20
ANNISTON    73  93  73  93  72 /  10  20  20  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  94  74  93  73 /  20  30  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  75  96  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  30  40
CALERA      75  93  74  93  73 /  20  30  20  20  30
AUBURN      75  93  74  94  74 /  20  30  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  75  94  74  94  74 /  20  30  20  10  20
TROY        73  93  72  92  72 /  20  30  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1205 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-071715-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1205 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA FROM 2 PM UNTIL 9 PM. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
455 PM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BEAVERTON               33.93N 88.02W
07/06/2012                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN THE BEAVERTON COMMUNITY.

&&

ANDERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
500 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ALZ012-062245-
LAMAR AL-
500 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM CDT...

AT 455 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BEDFORD...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF VERNON...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MILLPORT...
  KENNEDY...
  LAMAR COUNTY PUBLIC LAKE...
  HIGHTOGY...
  STAR...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 8823 3381 8795 3352 8795 3354 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 025DEG 22KT 3377 8820

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ALZ022-062315-
PICKENS AL-
528 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

AT 527 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ETHELSVILLE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILLPORT...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ETHELSVILLE...
  FOREST...
  MCSHAN...
  PINE GROVE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3342 8830 3353 8828 3353 8808 3352 8807
      3328 8814 3328 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 027DEG 10KT 3347 8822

MA