Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
745 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

.UPDATE...
AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS WATCHING THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
HEADING SOUTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN KY. THERE ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES OUT NOT TOO FAR FROM THE CWA BORDER...AND A ROUGH AND
DIRTY TIMING PUTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER INTO OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. I'VE HEDGED THE POPS HIGHER
IN THE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS
GETTING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...STORMS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED.

THE CENTER OF THE BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE HEAT
WAVE TO OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY THIS WEEK HAS SHIFTED
BACK NORTHWESTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING US ON THE TROPICAL
EASTERLIES SIDE OF THINGS. THIS GENERALLY ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS...WITH TEMPS LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN BUT
STILL AROUND/SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL.

BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WOULD MODERATE TEMPS EVEN MORE...AND KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF POPS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS...COMBINED WITH COLD POOL
INTERACTIONS...HAVE PRODUCED SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS ARE SLOWLY PROPAGATING SOUTH SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO LOSE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 10 AND
MIDNIGHT. AN MCS ACROSS TENNESSEE HAS BEEN SLOWLY LOSING INTENSITY
THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT STILL REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG. WILL WATCH FOR
THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY LOSE
INTENSITY. MENTION TEMPO/VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 04Z.
EXPECTED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW BIB DID NOT MENTION
ANYTHING JUST YET. HAVE KEPT PATCHY MVFR VIS FOR THE NORMAL PROBLEM
TAF SITES FOR NOW...SINCE VISIBILITIES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHERE
THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. RAIN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  96  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  20  20
ANNISTON    74  94  73  92  73 /  50  30  20  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  76  96  75  94  75 /  50  30  20  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  76  97  75  95  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
CALERA      75  95  75  94  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
AUBURN      75  93  74  94  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  75  93  74  93  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
TROY        73  91  72  92  72 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
742 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-070045-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
742 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE STORMS WILL LOSE SOME INTENSITY
BETWEEN 10 AND MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
943 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N HOKES BLUFF         34.04N 85.86W
07/05/2012                   ETOWAH             AL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ALONG COATS BEND RD.

&&

ANDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
948 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE OHATCHEE          33.80N 85.97W
07/05/2012                   CALHOUN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES DOWN ON THE EAST SIDE OF OHATCHEE.

&&

ANDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
949 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N CALERA              33.15N 86.75W
07/05/2012                   SHELBY             AL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR THE CONCORD CHURCH. THE SYSCO
            BUILDING SUSTAINED ROOF DAMAGE AND VERY LARGE BAY DOORS
            WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

LINHARES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
952 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

ALZ017-019-024>028-060330-
BLOUNT AL-CALHOUN AL-CLAY AL-JEFFERSON AL-SHELBY AL-ST. CLAIR
AL-TALLADEGA AL-
952 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TALLADEGA...NORTHEASTERN
SHELBY...SOUTHERN ST. CLAIR...NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHERN
CLAY...SOUTHWESTERN BLOUNT AND SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTIES UNTIL 1030
PM CDT...

AT 952 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH
OF DELTA TO ALPINE TO ARKADELPHIA...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH WELL AHEAD OF THE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  LEEDS...
  GARDENDALE...
  CENTER POINT...
  ALPINE...
  LOGAN MARTIN DAM...

&&

LAT...LON 3366 8606 3363 8569 3362 8569 3360 8574
      3356 8575 3356 8579 3347 8589 3347 8579
      3350 8576 3349 8573 3333 8585 3336 8626
      3376 8698 3390 8685
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 028DEG 23KT 3353 8568 3337 8620
          3383 8700

75