Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW
HOURS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE AS
GREAT AS LAST NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO
BE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST PORTIONS...WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

WE WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH PERIPHERY OF THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED COLD/STATIONARY FRONT...WOULD BRING TEMPS
DOWN TO NORMAL LEVELS...AND COULD BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF
SIGNIFICANT (AND NEEDED) RAINFALL. THE ONLY THING KEEPING ME FROM
GOING WITH LIKELY POPS AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK IS THAT THE LONG
RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHEN THE AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT) MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECTING ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOT AS MUCH SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCALES ARE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME BUT THINKING THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPMENT WILL START OUT W/S AND WORK ITS WAY NE TO OTHER TAF
AREAS WITH OUTFLOWS/REDEVELOPMENT/ETC DUE TO SOME LINGERING
BOUNDARIES AND HEATING. SO WILL KEEP VCTS BUT STAIR STEP BEGIN TIMES
A TAD FROM S/W TO N/E.

08/MNK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  94  73  94  72 /  10  20  10  10  20
ANNISTON    73  93  73  93  72 /  10  20  20  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  94  74  93  73 /  20  30  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  75  96  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  30  40
CALERA      75  93  74  93  73 /  20  30  20  20  30
AUBURN      75  93  74  94  74 /  20  30  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  75  94  74  94  74 /  20  30  20  10  20
TROY        73  93  72  92  72 /  20  30  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1205 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-071715-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1205 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA FROM 2 PM UNTIL 9 PM. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
353 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ALZ012-062145-
LAMAR AL-
353 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAMAR COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 351 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR DETROIT...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF SULLIGENT...MOVING SOUTH
AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS OUTFLOW.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SULLIGENT...
  VERNON...
  BEAVERTON...
  CREWS...
  LAMAR COUNTY AIRPORT...

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8821 3405 8799 3403 8799 3402 8795
      3367 8795 3367 8826
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 010DEG 19KT 3402 8813

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ALZ022-062145-
PICKENS AL-
358 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

AT 355 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GORDO...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CARROLLTON...
  PICKENSVILLE...
  GARDEN...
  OWENS...
  DILLBURG...

&&

LAT...LON 3332 8831 3333 8830 3337 8830 3338 8829
      3338 8790 3320 8788 3313 8829 3328 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 083DEG 11KT 3328 8800

MA

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