Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
745 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

.UPDATE...
AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS WATCHING THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
HEADING SOUTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN KY. THERE ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES OUT NOT TOO FAR FROM THE CWA BORDER...AND A ROUGH AND
DIRTY TIMING PUTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER INTO OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. I'VE HEDGED THE POPS HIGHER
IN THE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS
GETTING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...STORMS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED.

THE CENTER OF THE BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE HEAT
WAVE TO OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY THIS WEEK HAS SHIFTED
BACK NORTHWESTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING US ON THE TROPICAL
EASTERLIES SIDE OF THINGS. THIS GENERALLY ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS...WITH TEMPS LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN BUT
STILL AROUND/SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL.

BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WOULD MODERATE TEMPS EVEN MORE...AND KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF POPS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS...COMBINED WITH COLD POOL
INTERACTIONS...HAVE PRODUCED SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS ARE SLOWLY PROPAGATING SOUTH SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO LOSE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 10 AND
MIDNIGHT. AN MCS ACROSS TENNESSEE HAS BEEN SLOWLY LOSING INTENSITY
THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT STILL REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG. WILL WATCH FOR
THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY LOSE
INTENSITY. MENTION TEMPO/VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 04Z.
EXPECTED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW BIB DID NOT MENTION
ANYTHING JUST YET. HAVE KEPT PATCHY MVFR VIS FOR THE NORMAL PROBLEM
TAF SITES FOR NOW...SINCE VISIBILITIES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHERE
THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. RAIN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  96  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  20  20
ANNISTON    74  94  73  92  73 /  50  30  20  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  76  96  75  94  75 /  50  30  20  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  76  97  75  95  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
CALERA      75  95  75  94  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
AUBURN      75  93  74  94  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  75  93  74  93  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
TROY        73  91  72  92  72 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
742 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-070045-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
742 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE STORMS WILL LOSE SOME INTENSITY
BETWEEN 10 AND MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
751 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

ALZ025-027-035-036-060130-
CHILTON AL-COOSA AL-SHELBY AL-TALLADEGA AL-
751 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TALLADEGA...CENTRAL
SHELBY...WESTERN COOSA AND NORTHERN CHILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

AT 746 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ALABASTER TO COLUMBIANA TO
WILSONVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  TALLADEGA SPRINGS...
  COLUMBIANA...
  CALERA...
  WEOGUFKA...
  MONTEVALLO...

&&

LAT...LON 3283 8630 3294 8651 3298 8661 3302 8688
      3331 8683 3331 8658 3327 8648 3316 8627
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 005DEG 9KT 3324 8676 3322 8659
          3318 8648 3312 8637

MA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
752 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S NOTASULGA           32.52N 85.68W
07/05/2012                   MACON              AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWERLINE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF PISTOL RANGE RD AND
            HIGHWAY 81 SOUTH OF NOTASULGA.

&&

GRANTHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
801 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             1 SSW VINCENT           33.37N 86.42W
07/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       SHELBY             AL   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN VINCENT.

&&

GRANTHAM

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