Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
321 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS WATCHING THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
HEADING SOUTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN KY. THERE ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES OUT NOT TOO FAR FROM THE CWA BORDER...AND A ROUGH AND
DIRTY TIMING PUTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER INTO OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. I'VE HEDGED THE POPS HIGHER
IN THE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS
GETTING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...STORMS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED.

THE CENTER OF THE BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE HEAT
WAVE TO OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY THIS WEEK HAS SHIFTED
BACK NORTHWESTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING US ON THE TROPICAL
EASTERLIES SIDE OF THINGS. THIS GENERALLY ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS...WITH TEMPS LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN BUT
STILL AROUND/SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL.

BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WOULD MODERATE TEMPS EVEN MORE...AND KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF POPS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER THAT MOVED THROUGH TCL ABOUT AN HOUR
AGO...CURRENTLY NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING ANY TAF SITE.
THE BOUNDARY THAT TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR MGM AND TOI. STILL THINKING THAT THESE
SITES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW FROM AN MCS TO THE NORTHEAST IS SLOWLY MOVING
TOWARD NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. SINCE THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WILL KEEP VCTS FOR THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES...AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AS TO WHERE
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACTIVE MOVE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 04Z TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT PATCHY MVFR VIS FOR
THE NORMAL TAF SITES FOR NOW...SINCE VISIBILITIES WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  96  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  20  20
ANNISTON    74  94  73  92  73 /  50  30  20  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  76  96  75  94  75 /  50  30  20  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  76  97  75  95  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
CALERA      75  95  75  94  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
AUBURN      75  93  74  94  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  75  93  74  93  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
TROY        73  91  72  92  72 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-061745-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA FROM 2 PM UNTIL 8 PM. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.