Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Albany, NY

906 
WWUS51 KALY 292006
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYC039-111-292045-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-120529T2045Z/
GREENE NY-ULSTER NY-
406 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN ULSTER AND SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTIES...

AT 404 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HALCOTT CENTER...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROXBURY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WEST KILL BY 415 PM EDT...
  LEXINGTON...MOSQUITO POINT AND NORTH LEXINGTON BY 420 PM EDT...
  WEST JEWETT...JEWETT CENTER...RED FALLS AND PRATTSVILLE BY 425 PM
  EDT...
  ASHLAND AND JEWETT BY 430 PM EDT...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV OR
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV.

LAT...LON 4232 7427 4227 7422 4205 7445 4204 7457
      4204 7462 4209 7464 4212 7456 4215 7453
      4215 7451 4217 7446 4221 7454 4227 7450
      4235 7440 4234 7428
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 223DEG 26KT 4218 7447

$$

NAS/JPV

454 
WWUS51 KALY 292018
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYC039-111-292028-
/O.CAN.KALY.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-120529T2045Z/
GREENE NY-ULSTER NY-
418 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ULSTER AND
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LEVELS. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL 
STILL BE POSSIBLE.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV OR
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV.

LAT...LON 4232 7427 4227 7422 4205 7445 4204 7457
      4204 7462 4209 7464 4212 7456 4215 7453
      4215 7451 4217 7446 4221 7454 4227 7450
      4235 7440 4234 7428
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 223DEG 26KT 4224 7438

$$

NAS/JPV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TORNADO WATCH #313 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD. IN COORDINATION WITH
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WAS UPGRADED TO
MODERATE RISK.

MORNING SOUNDING IS LOCKED AND LOADED FOR HI END SLIGHT RISK/MOD
SEVERE EVENT....CAPES 3000 J/KG, SWEAT 301, 0-3KM STM REL HEL 141
M2/S2. EHI 1-2 SOUTH 2-4 NORTH..LI DROP TO -11.

SHEAR RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND HT FALLS ASSOC WITH
APPROACH HING JET BEGINNING TO IMPACT W PTNS OF RGN...BUT BEST JET
DYNAMICS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL BULK OF EVENT IS OVER...SPARING US
FROM THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND WITH PWATS
OF 1.6 INCHES HEAVY RAIN. FORTUNATELY THEY WILL BE MOVING 30+
KNOTS.

TD IN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S...FULL SUN BEATING DOWN ON RGN ATTM.
TEMPS ALREADY INTO THE 80S.

17UTC SOUNDING AUTHORIZED.

HRR/LOCAL WRF HANDLED THIS MORNINGS EVENT TO THE N WELL. THEY BOTH
ORGANIZE LINES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE N TIER OF FCA
16-18UTC...WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION...AND THE LAKE BREEZE FRONTS AS CDFNT OR COLD
POOLS WITH INITIAL CONVECTION SPREADS EAST.

WORDING FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/HVY RAIN...ADDED TO ZONES IN
ANTICIPATION OF WATCH.

GRIDS MODIFIED TO REFLECT TIMING ANS EVOLVING SKY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS ELEVATED BASED ON NEW GUID AND SUN.

PVS AFD...WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT THE
FA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES LESSEN TO 5.5
TO 7 C/KM...MLMUCAPES REMAIN VERY HIGHS WITH UP TO 3500 J/KG PSBL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS AS UPPER
JET ENDS UP PUTTING FA IN EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED 100+ KT JET MAX OVER SRN ONTARIO. BOTH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WBZ
HEIGHTS FALLING TO BTWN 9 AND 11 K FT ACRS MUCH OF FA BY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. CONTINUE THE ENHANCED
WORDING MENTIONING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY FROM THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD
OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FARTHER SUPPORT. WHILE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL. EXPECT
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

EXPECTING DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT BY LATE IN WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A WET WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER THE UPPER MID WEST THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LOW WILL PASS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS TIME...BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH BRIEF IFR EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

OVERNIGHT WITH WET GROUND MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KGFL. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE
WITH VFR PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...IMPROVING TO VFR. SLIGHT CHC SHRA/TSRA KALB AND CHC AT KPOU.
THU-FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRA
SAT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SHOWERS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

VERY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER REGION WITH HIGH PERCEPTIBLE
WATER VALUES. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IF STORM
TRAINING OR BACK BUILD FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A MAJOR CONCERN. THREAT
OS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1248 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-082>084-VTZ013>015-
301115-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-
NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1248 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...TORNADO WATCH 313 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EAST CENTRAL CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...ALBANY...COLUMBIA...FULTON...GREENE...
HAMILTON...HERKIMER...MONTGOMERY...RENSSELAER...SARATOGA...
SCHENECTADY...SCHOHARIE...WARREN...AND WASHINGTON.

IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM.

IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...BERKSHIRE.

CTZ001-013-NYZ063>066-301115-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-WESTERN ULSTER-
EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
1248 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ALSO POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTERLY 25 TO
35 MPH AND MAY FORM INTO LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             2 NE NORTH BOLTON       43.62N  73.63W
05/29/2012  E1.50 INCH       WARREN             NY   PUBLIC

            VIA SHAVE PROGRAM

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200030

OKEEFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
315 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             BALLARD CORNERS         43.15N  73.69W
05/29/2012  M1.75 INCH       SARATOGA           NY   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200031

OKEEFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             BELLOWS FALLS           43.14N  72.45W
05/29/2012  E1.75 INCH       WINDHAM            VT   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200032

OKEEFE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYZ063-064-292045-
WESTERN ULSTER NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

   WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 341 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14
MILES WEST OF WOODLAND VALLEY CAMPGROUND...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF
GRAHAMSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WOODLAND VALLEY CAMPGROUND BY 405 PM EDT
PHOENICIA AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT TREMPER BY 415 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4174 7444 4181 7452 4185 7447 4187 7447
      4198 7471 4203 7477 4210 7460 4215 7452
      4216 7449 4211 7431 4208 7408 4208 7397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 237DEG 25KT 4200 7459

NAS/JPV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             BELLOWS FALLS           43.14N  72.45W
05/29/2012  E2.00 INCH       WINDHAM            VT   FACEBOOK

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200033

OKEEFE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

VTZ015-292015-
EASTERN WINDHAM VT-
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

AT 341 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR PUTNEY...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRATTLEBORO...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WESTMINSTER BY 400 PM EDT
BELLOWS FALLS BY 415 PM EDT

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4305 7246 4300 7244 4297 7247 4296 7252
      4292 7252 4290 7253 4293 7260 4324 7244
      4320 7243 4315 7245 4312 7243 4308 7243
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 205DEG 19KT 4298 7247

FRUGIS/WASULA