Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Albany, NY

202 
WWUS51 KALY 291909
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
309 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYC043-291919-
/O.CAN.KALY.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120529T1930Z/
HERKIMER NY-
309 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV OR
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4330 7515 4334 7509 4354 7511 4373 7481
      4348 7477 4340 7483 4324 7515 4326 7516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 245DEG 40KT 4360 7446

$$
SNYDER/KOLECI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TORNADO WATCH #313 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD. IN COORDINATION WITH
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WAS UPGRADED TO
MODERATE RISK.

MORNING SOUNDING IS LOCKED AND LOADED FOR HI END SLIGHT RISK/MOD
SEVERE EVENT....CAPES 3000 J/KG, SWEAT 301, 0-3KM STM REL HEL 141
M2/S2. EHI 1-2 SOUTH 2-4 NORTH..LI DROP TO -11.

SHEAR RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND HT FALLS ASSOC WITH
APPROACH HING JET BEGINNING TO IMPACT W PTNS OF RGN...BUT BEST JET
DYNAMICS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL BULK OF EVENT IS OVER...SPARING US
FROM THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND WITH PWATS
OF 1.6 INCHES HEAVY RAIN. FORTUNATELY THEY WILL BE MOVING 30+
KNOTS.

TD IN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S...FULL SUN BEATING DOWN ON RGN ATTM.
TEMPS ALREADY INTO THE 80S.

17UTC SOUNDING AUTHORIZED.

HRR/LOCAL WRF HANDLED THIS MORNINGS EVENT TO THE N WELL. THEY BOTH
ORGANIZE LINES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE N TIER OF FCA
16-18UTC...WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION...AND THE LAKE BREEZE FRONTS AS CDFNT OR COLD
POOLS WITH INITIAL CONVECTION SPREADS EAST.

WORDING FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/HVY RAIN...ADDED TO ZONES IN
ANTICIPATION OF WATCH.

GRIDS MODIFIED TO REFLECT TIMING ANS EVOLVING SKY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS ELEVATED BASED ON NEW GUID AND SUN.

PVS AFD...WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT THE
FA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES LESSEN TO 5.5
TO 7 C/KM...MLMUCAPES REMAIN VERY HIGHS WITH UP TO 3500 J/KG PSBL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS AS UPPER
JET ENDS UP PUTTING FA IN EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED 100+ KT JET MAX OVER SRN ONTARIO. BOTH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WBZ
HEIGHTS FALLING TO BTWN 9 AND 11 K FT ACRS MUCH OF FA BY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. CONTINUE THE ENHANCED
WORDING MENTIONING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY FROM THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD
OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FARTHER SUPPORT. WHILE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL. EXPECT
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

EXPECTING DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT BY LATE IN WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A WET WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER THE UPPER MID WEST THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LOW WILL PASS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS TIME...BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH BRIEF IFR EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

OVERNIGHT WITH WET GROUND MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KGFL. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE
WITH VFR PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...IMPROVING TO VFR. SLIGHT CHC SHRA/TSRA KALB AND CHC AT KPOU.
THU-FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRA
SAT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SHOWERS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

VERY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER REGION WITH HIGH PERCEPTIBLE
WATER VALUES. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IF STORM
TRAINING OR BACK BUILD FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A MAJOR CONCERN. THREAT
OS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1248 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-082>084-VTZ013>015-
301115-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-
NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1248 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...TORNADO WATCH 313 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EAST CENTRAL CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...ALBANY...COLUMBIA...FULTON...GREENE...
HAMILTON...HERKIMER...MONTGOMERY...RENSSELAER...SARATOGA...
SCHENECTADY...SCHOHARIE...WARREN...AND WASHINGTON.

IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM.

IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...BERKSHIRE.

CTZ001-013-NYZ063>066-301115-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-WESTERN ULSTER-
EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
1248 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ALSO POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTERLY 25 TO
35 MPH AND MAY FORM INTO LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYZ052>054-291830-
EASTERN ALBANY NY-EASTERN RENSSELAER NY-WESTERN RENSSELAER NY-
147 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  EASTERN ALBANY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  NORTHWESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 145 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MENANDS...OR
ABOUT OVER ALBANY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WATERVLIET BY 155 PM EDT
TROY...WYANTSKILL...WYNANTSKILL AND GREEN ISLAND BY 200 PM EDT
BRUNSWICK CENTER AND CENTER BRUNSWICK BY 215 PM EDT
GRAFTON BY 230 PM EDT

RAINFALL RATES MAY APPROACH A HALF AN INCH IN AN HOUR WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4262 7383 4271 7389 4280 7372 4278 7369
      4281 7366 4283 7366 4290 7353 4274 7340
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 241DEG 15KT 4269 7374

FRUGIS/WASULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             2 SW RIVERBANK          43.58N  73.76W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200024

OKEEFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
208 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             NORTH BOLTON            43.60N  73.65W
05/29/2012  M3.50 INCH       WARREN             NY   FACEBOOK

            MEASURED VIA PHOTO WITH TAPE MEASURE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200025

OKEEFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
212 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDINBURG                43.23N  74.09W
05/29/2012                   SARATOGA           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN AT OAK RD AND ROUTE 4

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200026

OKEEFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
213 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             HULETTS LANDING         43.64N  73.51W
05/29/2012  E1.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         NY   FACEBOOK

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200027

OKEEFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             BOLTON LANDING          43.56N  73.65W
05/29/2012  E2.50 INCH       WARREN             NY   FACEBOOK

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200028

OKEEFE