Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Albany, NY

556 
WWUS51 KALY 292129
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
529 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYC001-093-095-292139-
/O.CAN.KALY.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-120529T2145Z/
SCHOHARIE NY-SCHENECTADY NY-ALBANY NY-
529 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL ALBANY...
SOUTHWESTERN SCHENECTADY AND SCHOHARIE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARNING HAS MOVED EASTWARD. AS 
A RESULT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV OR
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4285 7413 4259 7395 4243 7444 4259 7457
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 232DEG 19KT 4273 7411

$$

FRUGIS/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ADDED ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES TO THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH #313 UNTIL 9 PM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. HAIL FROM AROUND AN INCH UP TO 3.5 INCHES HAS
BEEN REPORTED WITH TODAY SEVERE STORMS. PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS
OF HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORNADO WATCH #313 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD. IN
COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WAS UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK.

MORNING SOUNDING IS LOCKED AND LOADED FOR HI END SLIGHT RISK/MOD
SEVERE EVENT....CAPES 3000 J/KG, SWEAT 301, 0-3KM STM REL HEL 141
M2/S2. EHI 1-2 SOUTH 2-4 NORTH..LI DROP TO -11.

SHEAR RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND HT FALLS ASSOC WITH
APPROACH HING JET BEGINNING TO IMPACT W PTNS OF RGN...BUT BEST JET
DYNAMICS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL BULK OF EVENT IS OVER...SPARING US
FROM THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND WITH PWATS
OF 1.6 INCHES HEAVY RAIN. FORTUNATELY THEY WILL BE MOVING 30+
KNOTS.

TD IN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S...FULL SUN BEATING DOWN ON RGN ATTM.
TEMPS ALREADY INTO THE 80S.

17UTC SOUNDING AUTHORIZED.

HRR/LOCAL WRF HANDLED THIS MORNINGS EVENT TO THE N WELL. THEY BOTH
ORGANIZE LINES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE N TIER OF FCA
16-18UTC...WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION...AND THE LAKE BREEZE FRONTS AS CDFNT OR COLD
POOLS WITH INITIAL CONVECTION SPREADS EAST.

WORDING FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/HVY RAIN...ADDED TO ZONES IN
ANTICIPATION OF WATCH.

GRIDS MODIFIED TO REFLECT TIMING ANS EVOLVING SKY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS ELEVATED BASED ON NEW GUID AND SUN.

PVS AFD...WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT THE
FA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES LESSEN TO 5.5
TO 7 C/KM...MLMUCAPES REMAIN VERY HIGHS WITH UP TO 3500 J/KG PSBL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS AS UPPER
JET ENDS UP PUTTING FA IN EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED 100+ KT JET MAX OVER SRN ONTARIO. BOTH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WBZ
HEIGHTS FALLING TO BTWN 9 AND 11 K FT ACRS MUCH OF FA BY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. CONTINUE THE ENHANCED
WORDING MENTIONING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY FROM THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD
OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FARTHER SUPPORT. WHILE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL. EXPECT
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

EXPECTING DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT BY LATE IN WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A WET WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER THE UPPER MID WEST THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LOW WILL PASS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS TIME...BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH BRIEF IFR EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

OVERNIGHT WITH WET GROUND MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KGFL. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE
WITH VFR PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...IMPROVING TO VFR. SLIGHT CHC SHRA/TSRA KALB AND CHC AT KPOU.
THU-FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRA
SAT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SHOWERS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

VERY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER REGION WITH HIGH PERCEPTIBLE
WATER VALUES. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IF STORM
TRAINING OR BACK BUILD FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A MAJOR CONCERN. THREAT
OS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-301100-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-
NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
419 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...TORNADO WATCH 313 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...ALBANY...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...FULTON...
GREENE...HAMILTON...HERKIMER...MONTGOMERY...RENSSELAER...SARATOGA...
SCHENECTADY...SCHOHARIE...ULSTER...WARREN...WASHINGTON.

CTZ001-013-301100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-
419 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT...AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTERLY 25 TO 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
422 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             LAKE GEORGE VILLAGE     43.43N  73.72W
05/29/2012  E1.75 INCH       WARREN             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200037

OKEEFE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYZ060-061-064>066-292130-
EASTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-
WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
424 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  ULSTER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  DUTCHESS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR RED HOOK...OR OVER SAUGERTIES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CLERMONT BY 435 PM EDT
LIVINGSTON AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANCRAM BY 445 PM EDT
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF COPAKE AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLAVERACK BY 455
PM EDT
PHILMONT BY 500 PM EDT
AUSTERLITZ BY 520 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4240 7344 4207 7353 4184 7388 4204 7405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 233DEG 26KT 4202 7387

NAS/JPV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             GLOVERSVILLE            43.05N  74.35W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       FULTON             NY   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200038

OKEEFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TRIBES HILL             42.95N  74.30W
05/29/2012                   MONTGOMERY         NY   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD IN FRONT OF TRIBES HILL FIRE
            DEPT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200039

OKEEFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
438 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FULTONVILLE             42.95N  74.37W
05/29/2012                   MONTGOMERY         NY   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 30A SOUTH OF FULTONVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200040

OKEEFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             BROADALBIN              43.06N  74.20W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       FULTON             NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WXNET 6

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200041

OKEEFE