Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TORNADO WATCH #313 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD. IN COORDINATION WITH
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WAS UPGRADED TO
MODERATE RISK.

MORNING SOUNDING IS LOCKED AND LOADED FOR HI END SLIGHT RISK/MOD
SEVERE EVENT....CAPES 3000 J/KG, SWEAT 301, 0-3KM STM REL HEL 141
M2/S2. EHI 1-2 SOUTH 2-4 NORTH..LI DROP TO -11.

SHEAR RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND HT FALLS ASSOC WITH
APPROACH HING JET BEGINNING TO IMPACT W PTNS OF RGN...BUT BEST JET
DYNAMICS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL BULK OF EVENT IS OVER...SPARING US
FROM THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND WITH PWATS
OF 1.6 INCHES HEAVY RAIN. FORTUNATELY THEY WILL BE MOVING 30+
KNOTS.

TD IN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S...FULL SUN BEATING DOWN ON RGN ATTM.
TEMPS ALREADY INTO THE 80S.

17UTC SOUNDING AUTHORIZED.

HRR/LOCAL WRF HANDLED THIS MORNINGS EVENT TO THE N WELL. THEY BOTH
ORGANIZE LINES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE N TIER OF FCA
16-18UTC...WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION...AND THE LAKE BREEZE FRONTS AS CDFNT OR COLD
POOLS WITH INITIAL CONVECTION SPREADS EAST.

WORDING FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/HVY RAIN...ADDED TO ZONES IN
ANTICIPATION OF WATCH.

GRIDS MODIFIED TO REFLECT TIMING ANS EVOLVING SKY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS ELEVATED BASED ON NEW GUID AND SUN.

PVS AFD...WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT THE
FA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES LESSEN TO 5.5
TO 7 C/KM...MLMUCAPES REMAIN VERY HIGHS WITH UP TO 3500 J/KG PSBL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS AS UPPER
JET ENDS UP PUTTING FA IN EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED 100+ KT JET MAX OVER SRN ONTARIO. BOTH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WBZ
HEIGHTS FALLING TO BTWN 9 AND 11 K FT ACRS MUCH OF FA BY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. CONTINUE THE ENHANCED
WORDING MENTIONING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY FROM THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD
OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FARTHER SUPPORT. WHILE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL. EXPECT
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

EXPECTING DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT BY LATE IN WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A WET WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER THE UPPER MID WEST THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LOW WILL PASS TO OUR WEST. AT THIS TIME...BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH BRIEF IFR EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

OVERNIGHT WITH WET GROUND MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KGFL. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE
WITH VFR PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...IMPROVING TO VFR. SLIGHT CHC SHRA/TSRA KALB AND CHC AT KPOU.
THU-FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRA
SAT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SHOWERS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

VERY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER REGION WITH HIGH PERCEPTIBLE
WATER VALUES. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IF STORM
TRAINING OR BACK BUILD FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A MAJOR CONCERN. THREAT
OS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1248 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-082>084-VTZ013>015-
301115-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-
NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1248 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...TORNADO WATCH 313 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EAST CENTRAL CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...ALBANY...COLUMBIA...FULTON...GREENE...
HAMILTON...HERKIMER...MONTGOMERY...RENSSELAER...SARATOGA...
SCHENECTADY...SCHOHARIE...WARREN...AND WASHINGTON.

IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM.

IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...BERKSHIRE.

CTZ001-013-NYZ063>066-301115-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-WESTERN ULSTER-
EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
1248 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ALSO POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTERLY 25 TO
35 MPH AND MAY FORM INTO LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
237 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYZ041-043-083-084-VTZ013-291900-
BENNINGTON VT-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-
SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
237 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  BENNINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 231 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO THREE QUARTERS INCH HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF SARATOGA RACE COURSE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTH OF FORT EDWARD BY 245 PM EDT
SALEM BY 300 PM EDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4314 7312 4305 7377 4323 7383 4335 7325
      4332 7325 4332 7317
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 257DEG 34KT 4316 7367

SNYDER/KOLECI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
243 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     HAIL             WILTON                  43.18N  73.75W
05/29/2012  M0.75 INCH       SARATOGA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200029

OKEEFE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYZ063-064-291945-
WESTERN ULSTER NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-
244 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO

  ULSTER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF ELLENVILLE...OR ABOUT 7 MILES EAST OF
MONTICELLO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
8 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELLENVILLE BY 315 PM EDT
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NAPANOCH BY 335 PM EDT
9 MILES WEST OF KERHONKSON BY 345 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4160 7424 4162 7427 4159 7433 4159 7437
      4165 7442 4174 7458 4187 7447 4196 7466
      4213 7448 4206 7400 4177 7396 4162 7398
      4159 7406 4161 7412 4158 7412 4158 7416
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 208DEG 8KT 4169 7455

NAS/JPV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
246 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

VTZ014-015-291915-
WESTERN WINDHAM VT-EASTERN WINDHAM VT-
246 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

AT 240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TOWNSHEND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WESTMINSTER AND SAXTONS RIVER BY 255 PM EDT
BELLOWS FALLS BY 300 PM EDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4306 7246 4301 7244 4298 7246 4295 7260
      4312 7273 4324 7246 4324 7243 4315 7245
      4312 7243 4308 7243
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 242DEG 22KT 4308 7255

FRUGIS/WASULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             2 NE NORTH BOLTON       43.62N  73.63W
05/29/2012  E1.50 INCH       WARREN             NY   PUBLIC

            VIA SHAVE PROGRAM

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200030

OKEEFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
315 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             BALLARD CORNERS         43.15N  73.69W
05/29/2012  M1.75 INCH       SARATOGA           NY   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200031

OKEEFE