Storm Warning 24, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
423 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...STRONG WEATHER FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT.
WINDS ALONG THE OUTSIDE WATERS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO INCREASE
WITH BUOY 46205 GUSTING TO GALE FORCE AND BUOY 46083 MEASURING
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS AT CAPE DECISION ARE ALSO
INCREASING WITH SOUTHEAST GUSTS TO MIN STORM FORCE. ON LAND,
SITKA AND HYDABURG ARE ALSO SEEING INCREASING WINDS BUT THE
PRECIP HAS NOT REACHED THE OUTER COAST YET. THOUGH THE RADAR NEAR
SITKA DOES SHOW THAT THE PRECIP IS NOT FAR OFF SHORE.

 SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING. EVENTUALLY REACHING GUSTS TO 60 MPH NEAR HYDABURG AND
YAKUTAT. HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE AT LEAST STRONG WIND HEADLINES AS
THE FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH. PRECIP WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM
AS MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE PUSHING HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH FOR
THE ENTIRE EVENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE
PRECIP AS RAIN. THOUGH THIS MAY CREATE OTHER PROBLEMS IN THE FORM
OF PONDING OF WATER DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND HEAVY SNOW LOAD ON
ROOFS IN LOCATIONS THAT STILL HAVE A LARGE SNOW PACK. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHWAYS ABOVE HAINES AND SKAGWAY. BOTH
HIGHWAYS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO CHANGE OVER AS TEMPERATURES
ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HAINES
HIGHWAY AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY
REMAIN UP.

 BEHIND THE FRONT WIND AND PRECIP BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THE MAIN PRECIP BAND WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THEN STALL JUST EAST OF HYDER EARLY TOMORROW. THEN BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW THE PRECIP WILL BE PICKING UP AGAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE PRECIP BAND MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA
THIS TIME FROM THE EAST. THE RETROGRADE MOTION OF THE BAND IS DUE
TO ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC.

 MODEL AGREEMENT WAS GOOD FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE GFS
FOR UPDATES AS IT PRESENTED A GOOD WIND FIELD TO WORK WITH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANOTHER
FAST MOVING STORM FORCE LOW THAT ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY
EVENING. SYSTEM HAS A VERY WARM THICKNESS RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT, SO PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALMOST ENTIRELY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. EXCEPTIONS ARE WEST OF YAKUTAT, ALONG THE HIGHWAYS, AND
POSSIBLY IN THE CITY OF HAINES THURSDAY NIGHT. ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR ZONE 23. WOULD HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ZONE 27 HOWEVER A HIGH
WIND EVENT IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS THERE. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
SEE STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH AT SOME POINT BETWEEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE
NORTH. LEFT ZONE 22 AS A MAX STRONG WIND HEADLINE, BUT HIGH WIND
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY THERE AS WELL. LATEST GFS IS DEPICTING A
LARGE AREA OF 80 TO 100 KNOTS OF WIND AT 850 MB WITH THE CORE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THAT BEING SAID, THE
ANTICIPATED HIGH WIND WARNING WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLE.

BEYOND THIS SECOND STORM, MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL GET A
BREAK FROM THE WIND ON SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG HIGH SETS UP OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OUTFLOW WINDS COMMENCE. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION, THINGS DRY OUT ON SATURDAY AND AFTER SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY, THINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

PREFERRED GFS BASED ON EXCELLENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
REGARDS TO THE DEPICTION, PLACEMENT, AND TRACK OF THE THURSDAY
NIGHT STORM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ026-028.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ021-024.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ020-023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-032>036-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031.

&&

EAL/FRITSCH