Storm Warning 25, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Feb 2, 2012, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Feb 2, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

101 
FZAK51 PAJK 021412
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-030100-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 975 MB STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND CURVE NORTHWEST TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND ON FRIDAY. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-030100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N GALE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 7 FT LATE. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-030100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SOUTH LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING AND BECOMING N
GALE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-030100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING
TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT IN THE LATE
MORNING. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING AND BECOMING N
GALE 40 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-030100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING SW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE GALE INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-030100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-030100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-030100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-030100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT 17 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN
THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-030100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
BECOMING SW. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT
LATE. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-030100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-030100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO
40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Feb 1, 4:23 PM AKST, 11 hours 37 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
423 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...STRONG WEATHER FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT.
WINDS ALONG THE OUTSIDE WATERS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO INCREASE
WITH BUOY 46205 GUSTING TO GALE FORCE AND BUOY 46083 MEASURING
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS AT CAPE DECISION ARE ALSO
INCREASING WITH SOUTHEAST GUSTS TO MIN STORM FORCE. ON LAND,
SITKA AND HYDABURG ARE ALSO SEEING INCREASING WINDS BUT THE
PRECIP HAS NOT REACHED THE OUTER COAST YET. THOUGH THE RADAR NEAR
SITKA DOES SHOW THAT THE PRECIP IS NOT FAR OFF SHORE.

 SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING. EVENTUALLY REACHING GUSTS TO 60 MPH NEAR HYDABURG AND
YAKUTAT. HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE AT LEAST STRONG WIND HEADLINES AS
THE FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH. PRECIP WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM
AS MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE PUSHING HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH FOR
THE ENTIRE EVENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE
PRECIP AS RAIN. THOUGH THIS MAY CREATE OTHER PROBLEMS IN THE FORM
OF PONDING OF WATER DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND HEAVY SNOW LOAD ON
ROOFS IN LOCATIONS THAT STILL HAVE A LARGE SNOW PACK. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHWAYS ABOVE HAINES AND SKAGWAY. BOTH
HIGHWAYS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO CHANGE OVER AS TEMPERATURES
ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HAINES
HIGHWAY AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY
REMAIN UP.

 BEHIND THE FRONT WIND AND PRECIP BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THE MAIN PRECIP BAND WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THEN STALL JUST EAST OF HYDER EARLY TOMORROW. THEN BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW THE PRECIP WILL BE PICKING UP AGAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE PRECIP BAND MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA
THIS TIME FROM THE EAST. THE RETROGRADE MOTION OF THE BAND IS DUE
TO ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC.

 MODEL AGREEMENT WAS GOOD FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE GFS
FOR UPDATES AS IT PRESENTED A GOOD WIND FIELD TO WORK WITH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANOTHER
FAST MOVING STORM FORCE LOW THAT ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY
EVENING. SYSTEM HAS A VERY WARM THICKNESS RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT, SO PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALMOST ENTIRELY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. EXCEPTIONS ARE WEST OF YAKUTAT, ALONG THE HIGHWAYS, AND
POSSIBLY IN THE CITY OF HAINES THURSDAY NIGHT. ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR ZONE 23. WOULD HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ZONE 27 HOWEVER A HIGH
WIND EVENT IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS THERE. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
SEE STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH AT SOME POINT BETWEEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE
NORTH. LEFT ZONE 22 AS A MAX STRONG WIND HEADLINE, BUT HIGH WIND
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY THERE AS WELL. LATEST GFS IS DEPICTING A
LARGE AREA OF 80 TO 100 KNOTS OF WIND AT 850 MB WITH THE CORE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THAT BEING SAID, THE
ANTICIPATED HIGH WIND WARNING WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLE.

BEYOND THIS SECOND STORM, MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL GET A
BREAK FROM THE WIND ON SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG HIGH SETS UP OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OUTFLOW WINDS COMMENCE. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION, THINGS DRY OUT ON SATURDAY AND AFTER SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY, THINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

PREFERRED GFS BASED ON EXCELLENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
REGARDS TO THE DEPICTION, PLACEMENT, AND TRACK OF THE THURSDAY
NIGHT STORM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ026-028.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ021-024.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ020-023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-032>036-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031.

&&

EAL/FRITSCH

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2012Every storm warning in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.