Small Craft Advisory 90, NWS Juneau, AK

827 
FZAK51 PAJK 020423 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
720 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-021400-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT BRINGING STORM FORCE WIND IN THE EASTERN
GULF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK. A
974 MB STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AK GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-021400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN. SNOW LATE. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-021400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
720 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

UPDATED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE
MORNING. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-021400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
720 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NORTHERN HALF. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-021400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E GALE TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-021400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT LATE.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-021400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
720 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

UPDATED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT...GUSTS AROUND 50 KT DIMINISHING
LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT SHIFTING SE IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT
OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-021400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT SHIFTING S IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-021400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
720 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

UPDATED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9
FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON...11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT
LATE. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 16 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 15 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-021400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
720 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-021400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
720 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8
FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-021400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT
11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT
LATE. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

101 
FZAK51 PAJK 021412
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-030100-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 975 MB STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND CURVE NORTHWEST TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND ON FRIDAY. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-030100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N GALE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 7 FT LATE. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-030100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SOUTH LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING AND BECOMING N
GALE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-030100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING
TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT IN THE LATE
MORNING. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING AND BECOMING N
GALE 40 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-030100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING SW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE GALE INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-030100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-030100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-030100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-030100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT 17 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN
THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-030100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
BECOMING SW. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT
LATE. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-030100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-030100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO
40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
612 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...STONG FRONT WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS, GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE INSIDE PASSAGES, HIGH
WINDS FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE PANHANDLE, HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND HEAVY SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE AK PANHANDLE MOVING EAST AND A 953 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK WITH A SECONDARY ROTATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN LOW.
VIGOROUS WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
REACHING THE AK PANHANDLE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON 850 MB WINDS
UP TO 85 KITS WERE INDICATED BY MOST MODELS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MAX STORM
FORCE WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN AK GULF. COULD EVEN HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS JUST WEST OF CAPE SUCKLING. FOR THE INSIDE PASSAGE EAST WEST
ORIENTED CHANNELS WILL SEE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GALES OVER CROSS SOUND. THE FRONT STARTING TO SHOW A SPLIT FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON SO WHILE THE YAKUTAT AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
WINDS WILL REACH WARNING LEVEL GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH EXPECT THE
CENTRAL COAST WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR MOST
REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT.

ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTING HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
ENTIRE PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN YAKUTAT. SSM/I TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A WELL DEFINED TONGUE OF MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE TROPICS
WITH THIS FRONT. QPF VALUES NEARING 1 INCH EVERY 6 HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REACHING 2 C AND 500 MB
NEARING -20 C WITH THE FRONT SO DEEP WARM MOIST AIR SHOULD KEEP
ALL PRECIP AS SNOW. WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE HAINES AND
KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS SNOW
COULD SEE SOME WARMER AIR PUSH FURTHER WEST AND NORTH AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. DECIDED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
HAINES HIGHWAYS AND ONLY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY AS STRONGER WINDS MAY LIMIT PRECIP FOR THE SKAGWAY AND
POSSIBLY HAINES AREAS. BEHIND THE WESTERN GULF LOW LOOKING AT
ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND -10 C.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. WHILE THE NAM AND EC
INITIALIZED BETTER WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES IN THE WESTERN AK
GULF THE GFS WAS STILL CLOSE AND PREFERRED THE STRONGER WINDS WITH
THE GFS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FOR THE
NORTHERN REGIONS TONIGHT AND THE HIGH QPF VALUES SOME MODELS WERE
INDICATING SOME VERY HIGH SNOW TOTALS. FELT THAT THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS WOULD LIMIT THESE EXCEPTIONS SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS. UPDATED GRIDS WITH THE 00Z GFS TWEAKING WINDS IN THE AK
GULF. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO SNOW AMOUNTS BUT THESE WERE MAINLY
FINE TUNING THE AMOUNTS ALONG THE HIGHWAYS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ABOUT AVERAGE WITH MAIN CONCERNS BEING WINDS NEAR YAKUTAT AND SNOW
FALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN REGIONS.
&&

.LONG TERM...FIRST STRONG FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW SLOWLY
FILLING NEAR KODIAK. A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC...IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A STORM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE YUKON SATURDAY. THIS HIGH DRIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FRONTAL LOW HAS POTENTIAL TO BE STRONGER FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THE FIRST ONE AS IT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD STORM FORCE SE WINDS
TO THE EASTERN GULF AND PARTS OF COASTAL AND SOUTHERN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A 75+ KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS ACROSS
PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY NEED HHW FOR 23/27/28 AND STRONG WIND
ELSWR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW...PRES FALLS TO SSW OF PANHANDLE
AND RIDGE AHEAD FRONT PRODUCES A BRIEF NEAR GALE NE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME COLDER AIR
INTO NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW FOR THE FAR NORTH. A
STRONG WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGS HEAVY RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WITH SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 2500 NORTH TO 5000 S.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND CAA BEGINS HAVE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND PRECIP GOING
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERLY FLOW. AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT.

HIGH BUILDING ACROSS CANADA AND NE FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OFFSHORE IN SE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME
CLOUDS FOR SOUTHERN.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN HALF. COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM NE BUT UPPER LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT WARM
KEEPING ATMO QUITE STABLE AND MAY NEED TO DEAL WITH SEVERAL DAYS
OF FOG. STRONGER WINDS WITH NEXT WEEK SYSTEMS STAY IN COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WITH NE GAP FLOW FOR INNER CHANNELS.

LIKED THE WAY THE GFS WAS HANDLING THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IN
SE GULF AND USED FOR GRIDS THROUGH 12Z SAT. FROM 18Z SAT TIL 12Z
SUN USED A GFS/EC BLEND AND ENDED WITH AN EC/HPC BLEND OUT TO DAY
8.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ021-024-026-028.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT AKST
     TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ020.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AKST
     THURSDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AKST
     THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-032>036-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031.

&&

PRB/MM