Gale Warning 97, NWS Juneau, AK

361 
FZAK67 PAJK 020115 CCA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
415 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-021400-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT BRINGING STORM FORCE WIND IN THE EASTERN
GULF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK. A
974 MB STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AK GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-021400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
415 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

CORRECTED HEADLINE

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT LATE. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

210 
FZAK67 PAJK 021349
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-030100-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 975 MB STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND CURVE NORTHWEST TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND ON FRIDAY. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-030100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT WEST OF 142W...S WIND 35 KT
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...EAST OF 140 W...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT
LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN. WEST OF 140 W...SE WIND 20 KT
BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...EAST OF 140 W...SE STORM FORCE WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 45 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 33 FT SUBSIDING TO 26 FT LATE. WEST OF 140
W...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 26 FT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
612 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...STONG FRONT WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS, GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE INSIDE PASSAGES, HIGH
WINDS FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE PANHANDLE, HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND HEAVY SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE AK PANHANDLE MOVING EAST AND A 953 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK WITH A SECONDARY ROTATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN LOW.
VIGOROUS WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
REACHING THE AK PANHANDLE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON 850 MB WINDS
UP TO 85 KITS WERE INDICATED BY MOST MODELS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MAX STORM
FORCE WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN AK GULF. COULD EVEN HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS JUST WEST OF CAPE SUCKLING. FOR THE INSIDE PASSAGE EAST WEST
ORIENTED CHANNELS WILL SEE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GALES OVER CROSS SOUND. THE FRONT STARTING TO SHOW A SPLIT FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON SO WHILE THE YAKUTAT AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
WINDS WILL REACH WARNING LEVEL GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH EXPECT THE
CENTRAL COAST WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR MOST
REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT.

ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTING HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
ENTIRE PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN YAKUTAT. SSM/I TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A WELL DEFINED TONGUE OF MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE TROPICS
WITH THIS FRONT. QPF VALUES NEARING 1 INCH EVERY 6 HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REACHING 2 C AND 500 MB
NEARING -20 C WITH THE FRONT SO DEEP WARM MOIST AIR SHOULD KEEP
ALL PRECIP AS SNOW. WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE HAINES AND
KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS SNOW
COULD SEE SOME WARMER AIR PUSH FURTHER WEST AND NORTH AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. DECIDED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
HAINES HIGHWAYS AND ONLY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY AS STRONGER WINDS MAY LIMIT PRECIP FOR THE SKAGWAY AND
POSSIBLY HAINES AREAS. BEHIND THE WESTERN GULF LOW LOOKING AT
ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND -10 C.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. WHILE THE NAM AND EC
INITIALIZED BETTER WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES IN THE WESTERN AK
GULF THE GFS WAS STILL CLOSE AND PREFERRED THE STRONGER WINDS WITH
THE GFS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FOR THE
NORTHERN REGIONS TONIGHT AND THE HIGH QPF VALUES SOME MODELS WERE
INDICATING SOME VERY HIGH SNOW TOTALS. FELT THAT THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS WOULD LIMIT THESE EXCEPTIONS SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS. UPDATED GRIDS WITH THE 00Z GFS TWEAKING WINDS IN THE AK
GULF. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO SNOW AMOUNTS BUT THESE WERE MAINLY
FINE TUNING THE AMOUNTS ALONG THE HIGHWAYS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ABOUT AVERAGE WITH MAIN CONCERNS BEING WINDS NEAR YAKUTAT AND SNOW
FALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN REGIONS.
&&

.LONG TERM...FIRST STRONG FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW SLOWLY
FILLING NEAR KODIAK. A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC...IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A STORM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE YUKON SATURDAY. THIS HIGH DRIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FRONTAL LOW HAS POTENTIAL TO BE STRONGER FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THE FIRST ONE AS IT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD STORM FORCE SE WINDS
TO THE EASTERN GULF AND PARTS OF COASTAL AND SOUTHERN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A 75+ KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS ACROSS
PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY NEED HHW FOR 23/27/28 AND STRONG WIND
ELSWR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW...PRES FALLS TO SSW OF PANHANDLE
AND RIDGE AHEAD FRONT PRODUCES A BRIEF NEAR GALE NE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME COLDER AIR
INTO NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW FOR THE FAR NORTH. A
STRONG WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGS HEAVY RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WITH SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 2500 NORTH TO 5000 S.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND CAA BEGINS HAVE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND PRECIP GOING
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERLY FLOW. AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT.

HIGH BUILDING ACROSS CANADA AND NE FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OFFSHORE IN SE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME
CLOUDS FOR SOUTHERN.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN HALF. COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM NE BUT UPPER LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT WARM
KEEPING ATMO QUITE STABLE AND MAY NEED TO DEAL WITH SEVERAL DAYS
OF FOG. STRONGER WINDS WITH NEXT WEEK SYSTEMS STAY IN COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WITH NE GAP FLOW FOR INNER CHANNELS.

LIKED THE WAY THE GFS WAS HANDLING THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IN
SE GULF AND USED FOR GRIDS THROUGH 12Z SAT. FROM 18Z SAT TIL 12Z
SUN USED A GFS/EC BLEND AND ENDED WITH AN EC/HPC BLEND OUT TO DAY
8.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ021-024-026-028.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT AKST
     TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ020.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AKST
     THURSDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AKST
     THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-032>036-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031.

&&

PRB/MM