High Wind Watch 3, NWS Juneau, AK

246 
WWAK77 PAJK 021520 CCA
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
619 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

AKZ023-022345-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0002.120203T0000Z-120203T2100Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0008.120203T0600Z-120203T2100Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
619 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
AKST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH
  THURSDAY EVENING AND DIMINISHING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
  FRIDAY MORNING.


* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOOSE OBJECTS 
  MAY BE BLOWN AROUND BY THE WIND. 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL LOSS
OF POWER.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1100 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ027-028-022345-
/X.COR.PAJK.HW.W.0008.120203T0100Z-120203T1800Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
619 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
AKST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
AKST FRIDAY. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65
  MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY EVENING AND
  CONTINUING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOOSE OBJECTS 
  MAY BE BLOWN AROUND BY THE WIND. 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL LOSS
OF POWER.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1100 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ020>022-024-025-022345-
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.A.0003.120203T1400Z-120204T0000Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...
PELICAN...ANGOON...JUNEAU
619 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* WINDS...GUSTS TO 60 MPH WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS CAN DOWN TREES AND DAMAGE PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 100 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

351 
WWAK77 PAJK 022336
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
236 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

AKZ020-021-024-025-030045-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.A.0003.120203T1400Z-120204T0000Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...ANGOON...JUNEAU
236 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH. 

WIND GUSTS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH 40 TO 55
MPH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH OR
EXCEED 60 MPH.

$$

AKZ022-030800-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0003.120203T1400Z-120204T0000Z/
/X.EXB.PAJK.HW.W.0008.120203T1500Z-120203T2100Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
236 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON AKST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON AKST FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. LOCALIZED HIGHER
  GUSTS ALONG THE OUTER COAST.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS CAN DOWN TREES AND CAUSE DAMAGE PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL LOSS
OF POWER.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1100 PM AKST THURSDAY NIGHT OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ026-030800-
/X.EXB.PAJK.HW.W.0008.120203T1200Z-120203T1800Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
236 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
   

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
  FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF KUPREANOF
  ISLAND AND KUIU ISLAND. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS CAN DOWN TREES AND CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL LOSS
OF POWER.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1100 PM AKST THURSDAY NIGHT OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ017-030800-
/X.EXB.PAJK.HW.W.0008.120203T1800Z-120204T0000Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
236 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM AKST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM AKST FRIDAY. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60
  MPH. WIND SHIFTING SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS CAN DOWN TREES AND CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE.
  LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND BY THE WIND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL LOSS
OF POWER.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1100 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ023-030800-
/X.EXT.PAJK.HW.W.0008.120203T0600Z-120203T1800Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
236 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
AKST FRIDAY...

* WIND...SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
  THURSDAY EVENING AND DIMINISHING LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO 
  EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS CAN DOWN TREES AND CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE.
  LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND BY THE WIND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL LOSS
OF POWER.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1100 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ027-028-030800-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0008.120203T0100Z-120203T1800Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
236 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST FRIDAY...

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 
  MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING FRIDAY MORNING. 

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
  FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS CAN DOWN TREES AND CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE.
  LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND BY THE WIND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL LOSS
OF POWER.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1100 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$


FRITSCH

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
423 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...STRONG WEATHER FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT.
WINDS ALONG THE OUTSIDE WATERS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO INCREASE
WITH BUOY 46205 GUSTING TO GALE FORCE AND BUOY 46083 MEASURING
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS AT CAPE DECISION ARE ALSO
INCREASING WITH SOUTHEAST GUSTS TO MIN STORM FORCE. ON LAND,
SITKA AND HYDABURG ARE ALSO SEEING INCREASING WINDS BUT THE
PRECIP HAS NOT REACHED THE OUTER COAST YET. THOUGH THE RADAR NEAR
SITKA DOES SHOW THAT THE PRECIP IS NOT FAR OFF SHORE.

 SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING. EVENTUALLY REACHING GUSTS TO 60 MPH NEAR HYDABURG AND
YAKUTAT. HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE AT LEAST STRONG WIND HEADLINES AS
THE FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH. PRECIP WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM
AS MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE PUSHING HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH FOR
THE ENTIRE EVENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE
PRECIP AS RAIN. THOUGH THIS MAY CREATE OTHER PROBLEMS IN THE FORM
OF PONDING OF WATER DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND HEAVY SNOW LOAD ON
ROOFS IN LOCATIONS THAT STILL HAVE A LARGE SNOW PACK. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHWAYS ABOVE HAINES AND SKAGWAY. BOTH
HIGHWAYS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO CHANGE OVER AS TEMPERATURES
ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HAINES
HIGHWAY AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY
REMAIN UP.

 BEHIND THE FRONT WIND AND PRECIP BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THE MAIN PRECIP BAND WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THEN STALL JUST EAST OF HYDER EARLY TOMORROW. THEN BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW THE PRECIP WILL BE PICKING UP AGAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE PRECIP BAND MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA
THIS TIME FROM THE EAST. THE RETROGRADE MOTION OF THE BAND IS DUE
TO ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC.

 MODEL AGREEMENT WAS GOOD FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE GFS
FOR UPDATES AS IT PRESENTED A GOOD WIND FIELD TO WORK WITH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANOTHER
FAST MOVING STORM FORCE LOW THAT ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY
EVENING. SYSTEM HAS A VERY WARM THICKNESS RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT, SO PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALMOST ENTIRELY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. EXCEPTIONS ARE WEST OF YAKUTAT, ALONG THE HIGHWAYS, AND
POSSIBLY IN THE CITY OF HAINES THURSDAY NIGHT. ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR ZONE 23. WOULD HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ZONE 27 HOWEVER A HIGH
WIND EVENT IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS THERE. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
SEE STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH AT SOME POINT BETWEEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE
NORTH. LEFT ZONE 22 AS A MAX STRONG WIND HEADLINE, BUT HIGH WIND
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY THERE AS WELL. LATEST GFS IS DEPICTING A
LARGE AREA OF 80 TO 100 KNOTS OF WIND AT 850 MB WITH THE CORE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THAT BEING SAID, THE
ANTICIPATED HIGH WIND WARNING WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLE.

BEYOND THIS SECOND STORM, MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL GET A
BREAK FROM THE WIND ON SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG HIGH SETS UP OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OUTFLOW WINDS COMMENCE. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION, THINGS DRY OUT ON SATURDAY AND AFTER SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY, THINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

PREFERRED GFS BASED ON EXCELLENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
REGARDS TO THE DEPICTION, PLACEMENT, AND TRACK OF THE THURSDAY
NIGHT STORM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ026-028.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ021-024.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ020-023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-032>036-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031.

&&

EAL/FRITSCH