Small Craft Advisory 91, NWS Anchorage, AK

145 
FZAK51 PAFC 010023
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 967 MB LOW 480 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT MOVES TO 220 NM SOUTHEAST 
OF SAND POINT AT 948 MB WED AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND WEAKENS TO 980 MB THU AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...
SE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 23 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS 
S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 
TO 65 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 60 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS 
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.WED NIGHT...BARREN ISLANDS SE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY 
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW 
SHOWERS.  
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE WITH THE NEXT STORM CENTER TO ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WED NIGHT. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAST.
SO AFTERNOON PACKAGES IN THE EAST WILL BE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM
WHILE GRIDS WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN THE WEST.

UPPER LEVELS...SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVERNIGHT. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC INTENSIFIES AS IT COMES IN PHASE WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA
TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH AND DIG OUT NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH WED. THIS IN
TURN AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND TUE NIGHT/WED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE WAVES MOVES OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY/COOK
INLET LATE TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY EAST ON TUE. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM THE WEST TUE.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF WED WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BECOME A SOURCE OF NUMEROUS
WATCH...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES. THE LOW DEVELOPS UNDER A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH AND INTENSE JET AND MOVES OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TO
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH A PRESSURE IN THE 950S WED NIGHT. THIS
LOW THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF THU AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS INTO
THE 960S. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA WED MORNING AND TO THE NORTH GULF COAST WED NIGHT. EXPECT GALE
TO STORM FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTH. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL START AS SNOW THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED
WITH RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND SOME NORTH GULF LOCATIONS BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL EXCEPT
FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...LOW WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED INTO THU ACROSS THE DELTA.
WIND CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
WITH WARMER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE DELTA/BRISTOL BAY WED AND THU WITH A STORM CENTER
APPROACHING THE GULF. STRONG INVERSIONS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHING
THE GULF MAY PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO BRISTOL BAY WED NIGHT.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA/AK PEN...
THE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
ALEUTIANS TUE AND WEAKENS. SNOW AND WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COMPLEX WILL BRING A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THE THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. WINDS AND SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AK PEN WED/WED
NIGHT AS A STORM CENTER APPROACHES THE GULF. WEAK RIDING BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE MORNING AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE
NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MOVES
NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST THURSDAY. WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WE SHOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL AND
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 187.
MARINE...GALES 132 150 155 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 12