Blizzard Watch 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

852 
WWAK42 PAFC 010048
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
348 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

AKZ161-011400-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0011.120201T2200Z-120202T2000Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0024.120201T1800Z-120202T1400Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
348 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA INCLUDING PILOT POINT AND
 PORT HEIDEN.

* SNOW...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTHWEST WIND 30 TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME HEAVIER
  IN INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
  BLOWING SNOW...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
  BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
  WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. DRIVING WILL BE VERY
  DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ181-011400-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0011.120201T1900Z-120202T1800Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0024.120201T1800Z-120202T1400Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
348 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...THE ALASKA PENINSULA INCLUDING COLD BAY AND SAND  
  POINT.

* SNOW...2 TO 5 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 35 TO 45 MPH. GUSTS OF 60 TO 70
  MPH THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.

* TIMING...STEADY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING AND COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL 
  PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE ALONG THE 
  PACIFIC SIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT PERSIST ALONG THE BERING 
  SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
  WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. DRIVING WILL BE VERY
  DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ187-011000-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120201T1000Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
348 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKST WEDNESDAY. 

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WINDS...NORTH WIND 30 TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
  REMAIN GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SNOW INTENSITY WILL LIGHTEN
  FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING WILL BE 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ155-011400-
/X.EXT.PAFC.WC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-120202T2100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
348 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY...

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST
THURSDAY. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...40 TO 50 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* WIND...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* TIMING...A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OF AT LEAST 15 MPH IS
  EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO
  RISE IN AIR TEMPERATURES.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE WITH THE NEXT STORM CENTER TO ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WED NIGHT. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAST.
SO AFTERNOON PACKAGES IN THE EAST WILL BE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM
WHILE GRIDS WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN THE WEST.

UPPER LEVELS...SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVERNIGHT. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC INTENSIFIES AS IT COMES IN PHASE WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA
TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH AND DIG OUT NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH WED. THIS IN
TURN AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND TUE NIGHT/WED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE WAVES MOVES OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY/COOK
INLET LATE TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY EAST ON TUE. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM THE WEST TUE.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF WED WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BECOME A SOURCE OF NUMEROUS
WATCH...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES. THE LOW DEVELOPS UNDER A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH AND INTENSE JET AND MOVES OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TO
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH A PRESSURE IN THE 950S WED NIGHT. THIS
LOW THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF THU AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS INTO
THE 960S. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA WED MORNING AND TO THE NORTH GULF COAST WED NIGHT. EXPECT GALE
TO STORM FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTH. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL START AS SNOW THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED
WITH RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND SOME NORTH GULF LOCATIONS BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL EXCEPT
FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...LOW WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED INTO THU ACROSS THE DELTA.
WIND CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
WITH WARMER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE DELTA/BRISTOL BAY WED AND THU WITH A STORM CENTER
APPROACHING THE GULF. STRONG INVERSIONS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHING
THE GULF MAY PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO BRISTOL BAY WED NIGHT.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA/AK PEN...
THE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
ALEUTIANS TUE AND WEAKENS. SNOW AND WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COMPLEX WILL BRING A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THE THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. WINDS AND SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AK PEN WED/WED
NIGHT AS A STORM CENTER APPROACHES THE GULF. WEAK RIDING BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE MORNING AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE
NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MOVES
NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST THURSDAY. WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WE SHOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL AND
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 187.
MARINE...GALES 132 150 155 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 12