Gale Warning 123, NWS Anchorage, AK

751 
FZAK51 PAFC 311226
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 983 MB LOW 105 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES TO 90 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT AND WEAKENS TO 995 MB TUE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. A 960 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY TUE EVENING
PEAKS AT 942 MB 225 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WED AFTERNOON AND THEN
WEAKENS TO 956 MB NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS LATE WED NIGHT.  
$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT EXCEPT 3 FT W OF BARREN ISLANDS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT EXCEPT N 30 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE WITH THE NEXT STORM CENTER TO ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WED NIGHT. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAST.
SO AFTERNOON PACKAGES IN THE EAST WILL BE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM
WHILE GRIDS WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN THE WEST.

UPPER LEVELS...SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVERNIGHT. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC INTENSIFIES AS IT COMES IN PHASE WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA
TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH AND DIG OUT NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH WED. THIS IN
TURN AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND TUE NIGHT/WED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE WAVES MOVES OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY/COOK
INLET LATE TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY EAST ON TUE. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM THE WEST TUE.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF WED WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BECOME A SOURCE OF NUMEROUS
WATCH...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES. THE LOW DEVELOPS UNDER A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH AND INTENSE JET AND MOVES OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TO
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH A PRESSURE IN THE 950S WED NIGHT. THIS
LOW THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF THU AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS INTO
THE 960S. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA WED MORNING AND TO THE NORTH GULF COAST WED NIGHT. EXPECT GALE
TO STORM FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTH. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL START AS SNOW THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED
WITH RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND SOME NORTH GULF LOCATIONS BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL EXCEPT
FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...LOW WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED INTO THU ACROSS THE DELTA.
WIND CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
WITH WARMER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE DELTA/BRISTOL BAY WED AND THU WITH A STORM CENTER
APPROACHING THE GULF. STRONG INVERSIONS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHING
THE GULF MAY PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO BRISTOL BAY WED NIGHT.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA/AK PEN...
THE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
ALEUTIANS TUE AND WEAKENS. SNOW AND WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COMPLEX WILL BRING A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THE THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. WINDS AND SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AK PEN WED/WED
NIGHT AS A STORM CENTER APPROACHES THE GULF. WEAK RIDING BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE MORNING AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE
NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MOVES
NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST THURSDAY. WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WE SHOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL AND
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 187.
MARINE...GALES 132 150 155 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 12