Brisk Wind Advisory 23, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312351
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 979 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA MOVES SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS
TONIGHT. A 992 MB LOW 90 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 320 NM
NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA AT 986 MB WED NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO 
240 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL AT 991 MB THU AFTERNOON. A 967 MB 
LOW 480 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT MOVES TO 220 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND
POINT AT 948 MB WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG 
THE COAST. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
ALONG THE COAST. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT EXCEPT 2 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E. 
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT 
EXCEPT 2 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 
50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 40 KT
BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE WITH THE NEXT STORM CENTER TO ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WED NIGHT. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAST.
SO AFTERNOON PACKAGES IN THE EAST WILL BE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM
WHILE GRIDS WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN THE WEST.

UPPER LEVELS...SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVERNIGHT. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC INTENSIFIES AS IT COMES IN PHASE WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA
TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH AND DIG OUT NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH WED. THIS IN
TURN AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND TUE NIGHT/WED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE WAVES MOVES OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY/COOK
INLET LATE TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY EAST ON TUE. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM THE WEST TUE.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF WED WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BECOME A SOURCE OF NUMEROUS
WATCH...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES. THE LOW DEVELOPS UNDER A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH AND INTENSE JET AND MOVES OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TO
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH A PRESSURE IN THE 950S WED NIGHT. THIS
LOW THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF THU AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS INTO
THE 960S. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA WED MORNING AND TO THE NORTH GULF COAST WED NIGHT. EXPECT GALE
TO STORM FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTH. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL START AS SNOW THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED
WITH RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND SOME NORTH GULF LOCATIONS BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL EXCEPT
FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...LOW WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED INTO THU ACROSS THE DELTA.
WIND CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
WITH WARMER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE DELTA/BRISTOL BAY WED AND THU WITH A STORM CENTER
APPROACHING THE GULF. STRONG INVERSIONS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHING
THE GULF MAY PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO BRISTOL BAY WED NIGHT.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA/AK PEN...
THE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
ALEUTIANS TUE AND WEAKENS. SNOW AND WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COMPLEX WILL BRING A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THE THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. WINDS AND SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AK PEN WED/WED
NIGHT AS A STORM CENTER APPROACHES THE GULF. WEAK RIDING BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE MORNING AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE
NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MOVES
NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST THURSDAY. WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WE SHOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL AND
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 187.
MARINE...GALES 132 150 155 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 12