Brisk Wind Advisory 22, NWS Anchorage, AK

160 
FZAK52 PAFC 311220
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB LOW NEAR ATKA WILL MOVE TO 270 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR
THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE. A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 80 NM
NORTHWEST OF ATTU AT 994 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE TO AROUND 220 
NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK AT 991 MB LATE WED NIGHT. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
WILL MOVE TO 365 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT AT 960 MB LATE
TONIGHT...PEAK AT 942 MB 260 NM EAST OF SAND POINT WED AFTERNOON AND
THEN TRACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WED EVENING. 
$$

PKZ150-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS
13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 
FT. 
.WED...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
COAST. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. 

$$

PKZ165-010300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT EXCEPT 3 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS
15 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT S 20 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 13 
FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT BECOMING SW 15 KT FROM SHEMYA W IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-010300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 35 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE ECMWF AND NAM
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE WITH THE NEXT STORM CENTER TO ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WED NIGHT. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAST.
SO AFTERNOON PACKAGES IN THE EAST WILL BE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM
WHILE GRIDS WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN THE WEST.

UPPER LEVELS...SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVERNIGHT. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC INTENSIFIES AS IT COMES IN PHASE WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA
TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH AND DIG OUT NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH WED. THIS IN
TURN AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND TUE NIGHT/WED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE WAVES MOVES OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY/COOK
INLET LATE TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY EAST ON TUE. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM THE WEST TUE.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF WED WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BECOME A SOURCE OF NUMEROUS
WATCH...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES. THE LOW DEVELOPS UNDER A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH AND INTENSE JET AND MOVES OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TO
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH A PRESSURE IN THE 950S WED NIGHT. THIS
LOW THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF THU AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS INTO
THE 960S. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA WED MORNING AND TO THE NORTH GULF COAST WED NIGHT. EXPECT GALE
TO STORM FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTH. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL START AS SNOW THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED
WITH RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND SOME NORTH GULF LOCATIONS BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL EXCEPT
FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...LOW WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED INTO THU ACROSS THE DELTA.
WIND CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
WITH WARMER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE DELTA/BRISTOL BAY WED AND THU WITH A STORM CENTER
APPROACHING THE GULF. STRONG INVERSIONS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHING
THE GULF MAY PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO BRISTOL BAY WED NIGHT.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA/AK PEN...
THE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
ALEUTIANS TUE AND WEAKENS. SNOW AND WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COMPLEX WILL BRING A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THE THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. WINDS AND SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AK PEN WED/WED
NIGHT AS A STORM CENTER APPROACHES THE GULF. WEAK RIDING BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE MORNING AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE
NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MOVES
NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST THURSDAY. WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WE SHOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL AND
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 187.
MARINE...GALES 132 150 155 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 12