Small Craft Advisory 654, NWS Anchorage, AK

883 
FZAK51 PAFC 142306
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT. A PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO AROUND 390
NM SOUTHWEST OF AKHIOK SAT MORNING AT 992 MB...THEN STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY NEAR TOGIAK AT 976 MB LATE SUN MORNING. AN
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ASHORE THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-151500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT DURING THE EVENING. NEAR 
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-151500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-151500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-151500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...
SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 21 FT BY MIDNIGHT. 
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-151500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT DURING THE
EVENING...EXCEPT E 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-151500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
415 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA IS PRECIPITATION FREE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST IN ITS WAKE. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AROUND
COOK INLET HAVE ALLOWED A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN KENAI AND SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AS WELL. A SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS...WITH A POTENT UPPER LOW
POISED TO DROP INTO THE BERING OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
BERING THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS IN BRINGING THE
CENTER OF THE LOW TO THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER...WITH THE GFS
DEPICTING A DEEPER AND MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION THAN THAT OF THE
ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE BRIEF DRYING TREND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH FROM THE
WEST. RAIN WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE BERING THIS WEEKEND.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON FRIDAY AS THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVERHEAD MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN BERING MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...RAIN ON FRIDAY WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE VICINITY
OF BRISTOL BAY. RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
THE ALEUTIANS WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...BUT RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PART OF THE CHAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BERING ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES OFF OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE BERING WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND. THE
LIKELIHOOD IS INCREASING THAT THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL BE IMPACTED BY
STRONG WINDS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF MAXIMUM WINDS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE COMING DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 101 125
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB SEP 12